fantasy premier league GW29 captain choice plus transfer polls

Here’s our fantasy premier league GW29 captain choice article where we look at a number of ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls and the FFGeek choice. We also show you the results of the transfer in and out poll  

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE GW29 CAPTAIN CHOICE PLUS TRANSFER POLLS  

If the article’s a bit long there’s a summary at the end

FIXTURES

Here’s the fixtures for GW29:

BOOKIES WIN ODDS

The bookies see 2 teams as favourites with the following win odds for £1 invested. It’s likely the fantasy premier league GW29 captain choice will come from one of those teams.

Spurs – £1.20 – Kane, Eriksen, Alli

Liverpool – £1.22 – Salah, Firmino, Mane

THE BOOKIES PLAYER ODDS

Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds up to £2.20. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security although that doesn’t apply for Man City. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Saturday morning and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.

£1.53 – Kane

£1.57– Salah

£1.80 – Firmino

£1.85 – Vardy

£1.91 – Aguero

£1.95 – Mane, Jesus

£2.05 – Aubameyang

£2.10 – Lukaku

THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.

Thanks to everybody who voted in the FFGeek poll.

It’s also worth noting here that the FFGeek poll asks who you are going to appoint as captain to reflect the reality of the spread of captain choices. Others ask who is the best captain. Others just say captain poll and leave the question up to you.  I also show how many vote so you can see how representative it is which some other polls don’t

Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:

Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls. It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and it asks who is the best captain

If you want to see the full GW29 captain poll use this link

WHO ARE THE FFGEEK CONTRIBUTORS PICKING?

SOME THOUGHTS ON KANE AND SALAH

KANE

Here’s Kanes home games against non top 6 opposition:

Kane has started 10 home games. He’s got a goal or assist in 4 of the 10 games against the non top 6 sides. There have been 3 double figure hauls.

 In 2 games his underlying stats were below a reasonable standard for a striker.

He will have penalty duties

Kane should be reasonably rested as he did not play in the FA Cup game

The Huddersfield away defence

Away Huddersfield are ranked 17th in goals conceded with 28. In expected goals away they are better in 11th.

There have been 3 comparable games away against top 6 sides for Huddersfield

Rd 10 Liverpool 0-3 (xGA 2.14 and 16 shots 13 in the box)

Rd 14 Arsenal 0-5 (xGA 4.48 and 21 shots 16 in the box)

Rd 20 Man Utd 0-2 (xGA 1.63 and 16 shots 9 in the box)

No significant injuries to the defence.  The reverse fixture was 4-0 to Spurs with Kane scoring twice.

SALAH

Here’s Salah’s home games against non top 6 teams:

Salah has started 8 home games and returned a goal or assist in 7 of those games. There have been 5 double figure FPL point hauls.

His goal threat underlying stats have been exceptional and in only the Burnley and Man Utd bus game were they less than acceptable (0.3 for NPxG or 0.3 xA for a mid). If we analyse him as a striker and look for 0.5 NPxG he’s met that in 7/8 games.

Salah could have pens as he took the penalty against Huddersfield.

 No midweek games so should be fresh and had 1 more days rest than Kane.

The Newcastle home defence

Away Newcastle are ranked 13th in goals conceded with 23 against. In expected goals conceded away they are 15th

There have been 4 comparable games  away against top 6 sides

Rd 12 Man Utd 1-4 (xGA 2.57 and 16 shots 14 in the box)

Rd 15 Chelsea 1-3 (xGA 3.08 and 23 shots 19 in the box)

Rd 18 Arsenal 0-1 (xGA 2.02 and 23 shots 18 in the box)

Rd 24 Man City 1-3 (xGA 2.55 and 21 shots 14 in the box)

No major issues with the Newcastle defence. Improved GK it seems may help

It’s worth noting that the reverse fixture was 1-1 and Salah blanked.

SUMMARY

The bookies and Polls are very close between Salah and Kane

Kane will have pens. Salah could have pens.

The stats favour Salah for me except maybe in goal threat underlying.

 Both defences have been terrible away from home against top 6 opposition

THE FFGEEK CHOICE

Very difficult to separate them.  Salah has been the most consistent but Kane posts the best goal threat underlying stats.  Both defences have been terrible.

The issue with Salah is that if he gets points and you don’t have him as captain then your rank will suffer.  That makes him a shield captain whereas Kane is probably the sword version

I’ll be sticking with Salah although it really is a coin toss

THE TRANSFER IN POLL

TRANSFER OUT POLL  

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