fantasy premier league GW30 captain choice – plus transfer and GW31 polls

Here’s our fantasy premier league GW30 captain choice article where we look at a number of ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, a load of stats and the FFGeek choice. We also show you the results of the transfer in and out poll and the most important players for GW31 poll

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE GW30 CAPTAIN CHOICE PLUS TRANSFER POLLS

If the article’s a bit long there’s a summary at the end

FIXTURES

Here’s the fixtures for GW30:

BOOKIES WIN ODDS

The bookies see 4 teams as favourites with the following win odds for £1 invested. It’s likely the fantasy premier league GW30 captain choice will come from one of those teams.

Man City – £1.25 – Aguero, De Bruyne, D Silva

Chelsea – £1.30 – Hazard

Spurs – £1.50 – Kane, Eriksen, Alli

Arsenal – £1.50 – Aubameyang

THE BOOKIES PLAYER ODDS

Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds up to £2.50. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security although that doesn’t apply for Man City. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Friday afternoon and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.

£1.65 – Kane, Aguero

£1.85– Morata, Aubameyang

£1.95 – Hazard

£2.05 – Sane, Sterling

£2.20 – Bernardo

£2.37 – Mkhitaryan

£2.50 – Vardy, Ozil

THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.

Thanks to everybody who voted in the FFGeek poll.

It’s also worth noting here that the FFGeek poll asks who you are going to appoint as captain to reflect the reality of the spread of captain choices. Others ask who is the best captain. Others just say captain poll and leave the question up to you. I also show how many vote so you can see how representative it is which some other polls don’t

Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:

Here’s the summary of the other main FPL advice site polls. It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and it asks who is the best captain

If you want to see the full GW30 captain poll use this link

WHO ARE THE FFGEEK CONTRIBUTORS PICKING?

 Here’s a schedule outlining who the FFGeek contributors have picked as their fantasy premier league GW30 captain choice for their teams.  You can see part 1 with this link.  I am writing part 2 next after updating this

SOME THOUGHTS ON KANE AND AGUERO

KANE

Here’s Kanes away games against non top 6 opposition:

Kane has started 9 away games. He’s got a goal or assist in 7 of the 9 games against the non top 6 sides. There have been 4 double figure hauls.

In 2 games his underlying stats were below a reasonable standard for a striker.

He will have penalty duties

Kane played 90 minutes in the UCL on Wednesday

The Bournemouth home defence

At home Bournemouth are ranked 15th equal in goals conceded with 21. In expected goals away they are far worse in 19th.

There have been 4 comparable games home against top 6 sides for Bournemouth

Rd 3 Man City 1-2 (xGA 1.77 and 19 shots 13 in the box)

Rd 10 Chelsea 0-1 (xGA 1.78 and 18 shots 13 in the box)

Rd 18 Liverpool 0-4 (xGA 3.25 and 21 shots 15 in the box)

Rd 23 Arsenal 2-1 (xGA 1.01 and 12 shots 6 in the box

No significant injuries to the defence. The reverse fixture was 1-0 to Spurs

Aguero

Here’s Aguero’s away games against non top 6 teams:

Aguero has started 7 away games and returned a goal or assist in 4 of those games. There has been 1 double figure FPL point hauls.

His goal threat underlying stats have been exceptional and in only the Burnley and Crystal Palace games were they less than acceptable (0.5 NPxG for a Fwd).

 Aguero has penalty duties

He didn’t play in the midweek UCL match so should be fresh.  Additionally the game isn’t played until Monday

The Stoke home defence

At home Stoke are ranked 15th equal in goals conceded with 21 against. In expected goals conceded at home they are 18th

There have been 4 comparable games away against top 6 sides

Rd 2 Arsenal 1-0 (xGA 1.41 and 18 shots 9 in the box)

Rd 4 Man Utd 2-2 (xGA 1.97 and 18 shots 12 in the box)

Rd 6 Chelsea 0-4 (xGA 1.60 and 7 shots 6 in the box)

Rd 14 Liverpool 0-3 (xGA 2.59 and 14 shots 7 in the box)

No major issues with the Stoke defence injury wise.   Alot has been made of Paul Lambert’s improvement of the defence seen he was appointed manager for GW24.  However he couldn’t have had easier fixtures if he picked them.  The 3 away games under Lambert have been Bournemouth xGA 1.91, Leicester xGA 1.12 and Southampton xGA 0.98.

It’s worth noting that the reverse fixture was 7-2 to Man City.

SUMMARY

The bookies have Kane and Aguero neck and neck at £1.65

The polls favour Kane by a distance

Both players will have pens

The stats favour  Kane

Both defences have been pretty equally terrible with perhaps Stoke having the edge on shot volume conceded.  Lambert has been praised for improving the defence but it has been on the back of some pretty kind fixtures.

Aguero has a big edge on rest with Kane playing 90 minutes against Juventus on Wednesday.

THE FFGEEK CHOICE

 I only have Kane in my team so for me it’s an easy choice.  Kane will be my captain.

Certainly the stats favour Kane as do the polls and the bookies have them neck and neck.  There’s not much between 2 horrble defences.

I guess the main things that favour Aguero are the rest time and if I had to back a team to demolish another I would back Man City over Spurs.  The real unknown is the rest and how that will benefit Aguero.

If I had both I may find it difficult to go against Kane given the polls and his higher ownership but if I could put that aside it’s much closer purely due to the rest.

THE TRANSFER IN POLL

TRANSFER OUT POLL

Most Important Blank GW31 player (Liverpool excluded)

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