fantasy premier league GW30 tips – the bandwagons and sinking ships


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Here’s our fantasy premier league GW30 tips article where we outline the bandwagons and sinking ships. These are the most transferred in players (bandwagons) and most transferred out players (sinking ships) so far in the FPL gameweek.

fantasy premier league GW30 tips – the bandwagons and sinking ships

Stats definition:

PP90: The FPL points per 90 minutes played for 18/19.

Av mins: The average minutes played per appearance in the last 10 gameweeks.

Mins adj PP90:  The PP90 adjusted for the average minutes played

Consistency: the number of times a goal or assist has been returned in a match as a proportion of the total games where the player has played 45 minutes or more.

ATGS/CS* odds GW30: Anytime goal scorer odds or clean sheet odds* for defenders for GW30.

Form rank: I’ve ranked players in their position on their underlying attacking stats in the last 10 games. See the form article here

VFM:  The value for money number.  It’s reached by comparing the value and the minutes adjusted PP90

Prices as of Thursday 7 March.

The Bandwagons

These are the 5 most transferred IN players so far in the gameweek.



fantasy premier league GW30 tips

Alexander Arnold

Liverpool have guaranteed games in the blank weeks of GW31 and GW33 but no double gameweeks

The Liverpool RB had been off the radar with injury until he stormed back into the reckoning with 18 points against Watford in what was a devastating attacking performance of free kicks and crossing.

With Liverpool a key team in the upcoming blank weeks he, or another Liverpool defender, looks a great pick.  With Robertson £6.9m and Van Dijk £6.6m he offers excellent value.  Matip maybe cheaper at 34.9m but there has to be some uncertainty over his place until we see who starts when Lovren is fit.

Home to Burnley and away to Fulham are great entry points

GW30 Burnley (H)
GW31 Fulham (A)
GW32 Spurs (H)
GW33 Southampton (A)
GW34 Chelsea (H)
GW35 Cardiff (A)

Rice

West Ham have guaranteed games in the blank weeks of GW31 and GW33 but no double gameweeks.

Rice is classified as a West Ham defender in FPL although he plays as a CDM.  That hasn’t really changed his attacking potential as you can see from his form rank with his main attacking danger coming from set pieces rather than a nominally advanced position.

He does have the advantage of not having any competition which the cheaper centre backs of Diop and Ogbonna will when Balbuena is fit. Although history would show that Diop will hold his place.

West Ham have been disappointing as a defence though with only Fulham having less clean sheets than their 5.  Huddersfield have the same amount of clean sheets for example and the more natural West Ham pick is the save and bonus point magnet of GK Fabianksi.

GW30 Cardiff (A)
GW31 Huddersfield (H)
GW32 Everton (H)
GW33 Chelsea (A)
GW34 Man Utd (A)
GW35 Leicester (H)

Zaha

C Palace have no game in blank GW31.  They will only have a game in blank GW33 if they lose to Watford in the FA Cup quarters.  If they win that FA Cup quarter game then their GW33 v Newcastle will be postponed which means they will likely have a double gameweek either in GW32 or GW35.

The Palace FPL forward has always been a reasonably consistent returner but his inability to get bonus points as well as being largely assist based has meant his overall returns have been pretty ordinary.  That is pretty obvious from his current PP90.

However something has happened recently.  It’s 5 goals in the last 5 games and 3 sets of 3 bonus points which moved them from a pathetic 3 in total to a rather rosier 12.  It’s hard to assess why this is the case though.  His shooting and key pass volumes aren’t drastically different and neither are his xG/xA.  He has just been a pretty lethal finisher.  As Aubameyang can testify to,  the more you score for the less shots taken,  generally means the better your bonus chances are.

GW30 Brighton (H)
GW31 None
GW32 Huddersfield (H)
GW33 Newcastle (A) (STFAC)
GW34 Man City (H)
GW35 Arsenal (A)

Mane

Liverpool have guaranteed games in the blank weeks of GW31 and GW33 but no double gameweeks

Mane isn’t the most consistent returner but he still seems to produce reasonable returns for his value.  That has been helped, in part, by the fact that he now is able to hold his own in the bonus points department.  Classified as a mid in FPL he has played CF in the last couple of games where he was devastating v Watford and poor v Everton.  That seems likely to end with Firmino coming back to take the role unless Klopp moves from his favoured 4-3-3 to 4-2-3-1

GW30 Burnley (H)
GW31 Fulham (A)
GW32 Spurs (H)
GW33 Southampton (A)
GW34 Chelsea (H)
GW35 Cardiff (A)

The Sinking Ships

These are the 5 most transferred OUT players so far in the gameweek.



fantasy premier league GW30 tips

Aubameyang

Arsenal have no game in blank GW31 but a guaranteed fixture in blank GW33.  They are likely to have a double gameweek for the postponed game against Wolves (A) from GW31.  I suspect that will be in GW35.

2 things which can get you into the sinking ships list are being benched and negative FPL point scores.  If you somehow combine both, as Aubameyang managed to, by coming off the bench to miss a penalty v Southampton in GW29,  then you’re likely to top the list as Aubemyang has.

However on the fundamentals then Aubameyang ticks alot of boxes.  Where he falls down is the Emery random rotation selection method which has been exacerbated recently after a decent run of 90 minute starts.

Lacazette being banned for the next 2 Europa League games increases the risk of him being rotated as this is a competition that Emery has won 3 times and a route into the Champions League where there top 4 place method of qualifying is anything but certain

GW30 Man Utd (H)
GW31 None
GW32 Newcastle (H)
GW33 Everton (A)
GW34 Watford (A)
GW35 Crystal Palace (H)

Rashford

Man Utd have no game in blank GW31 or in blank GW33.  They already have a double gameweek confirmed in GW35 and confirmed in GW32.

It’s hard to totally understand this as he has been an FPL gift as a striker at £7.7m in a top 6 team.  Especially one as attacking as Solskajer’s Man Utd.

However 4 gameweeks without a return is probably the answer. However 1 he didn’t play in and the other he was sub.  He, also, would have returned against Southampton had Pogba not missed the penalty. So it seems a bit harsh to me unless you’re making room for GW31 players.

GW30 Arsenal (A)
GW31 None
GW32 Watford (H)
GW32 Wolves (A)
GW33 None
GW34 West Ham (H)
GW35 Everton (A)

Son HM

Spurs have no game in blank GW31.  They will only have a game in blank GW33 if Brighton lose their FA Cup quarter final vs Millwall.  If Brighton win that FA Cup quarter game then their GW33 v Brighton will be postponed which means they will likely have a double gameweek either in GW32 or GW35.

On the face of the Spurs FPL Mid’s stats everything looks rosy.  Great PP90, decent minutes, great consistency, excellent value for money, playing as a striker and good next fixture.  And then it suddenly hits you that he’s 28th in the midfielder form charts.  His underlying stats in the last 10 gameweeks are worse than the Arsenal makeshift right back Maitland Niles.  In the last 3 game weeks he’s blanked all 3,  had 3 shots and 3 key passes in total and a combined xG and xA in those 3 gameweeks of 0.08 and 0.09.

He has fallen off a cliff in all ways.  The last 3 games drop off coincides with Kanes return.  However one of Son’s most productive spells was between GW18-21 when Kane was playing which tends to question that correlation.

GW30 Southampton (A)
GW31 None
GW32 Liverpool (A)
GW33 Brighton (H) (STFAC)
GW34 Huddersfield (H)
GW35 Man City (A)

Bennett

Wolves have no game in either Blank GW31 and GW33.  They have a double gameweek confirmed in GW32 and I imagine they will have another confirmed in GW35

Suspended for 2 PL games and no game in GW31 he’s an unsurprising transfer out

GW30  Chelsea (A)
GW31  None
GW32 Burnley (A)
GW32 Man Utd (H)
GW33 None
GW34 Southampton (A)
GW35 Brighton (H)

Doherty

Wolves have no game in either Blank GW31 and GW33.  They have a double gameweek confirmed in GW32 and I imagine they will have another confirmed in GW35

A little bit more difficult to understand.  Chelsea away and then a blank makes some sense from a sale perspective.  I personally have a sale value of £4.9m against a buy back of £5.5m and I imagine there’s alot of people in that position.  Maybe these are people who are not fussed about that or bought him later on.

GW30  Chelsea (A)
GW31  None
GW32 Burnley (A)
GW32 Man Utd (H)
GW33 None
GW34 Southampton (A)
GW35 Brighton (H)

See also the underlying stats for GW29 alone and the form tables

See the early FFGeek team article and the 10 top FPL managers we follow

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5 thoughts on “fantasy premier league GW30 tips – the bandwagons and sinking ships”

  1. great stuff thanks geek.

    You mention that West Ham are not the best for clean sheets, but of the GW31 and 33 teams/fixtures do you not think West Ham is the best defence to route for of the cheapies?

    • Problem is GW31 is the best of a bad situation. There will definitely be some miracle clean sheet by someone but I wouldn’t like to bet on who it is.

  2. I’ve been weighing up whether to do Son to Mané this week or next. Probably just emotional attachment holding on to him at this point I guess.

  3. Had Doherty basically all season. Sold before dropped to 4.4m then bought back couple weeks later. What’s disturbing is 41pts GW5-8 then 2.95ppg average ever since. 2 highest scores in that period of 7pts and 1pt ten times. The Pat Doherty combo has been killing me for ages in my cash ML that I’m still managing to lead by 1pt

  4. Yeah Rob I agree that of the poorer teams maybe West Ham is the best defensive option for GW31 & 33.

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