Here’s our fantasy premier league managers article where we round up the final ranks of the 10 top managers I follow. These managers finished the 3 seasons prior to this season inside the top 10k OR
fantasy premier league managers – the final rank of the 10 top FPL managers and some analysis
As I said the 10 top managers finished the 3 seasons prior to this one inside the top 10k. That’s a remarkable achievement.
The final ranks
Here’s a schedule ordered by the highest final points at the top. I got a few additional stats from the excellent site FPL statistico. You just feed your FPL ID in to get the stats. I’ve included myself in there just as a comparison point. As you may know our very own Keith Spencer and Paul Williams were part of the 10.
The manager at the top finished in the top 100. To show how hard FPL has become and how hard achieving a top 10k finish is he was the only manager who secured a 4th consecutive top 10k finish. However an average finish of 43k for the 10 is no mean feat.
A couple of words about each individual stat
I’m just going to have a quick word on each stat and see whether there’s any correlation at all between their final OR and the stat itself.
A pretty worthless stat really as it was influenced mainly by whether you had 2 rotating GKs or not.
I would have thought this was going to be a quite crucial stat but it definitely wasn’t. The 2 highest captain scores finished 8 and 9th in the final points tally. Interestingly my conservative shield approach (when I could) ended with me having the 2nd lowest captain points score.
Up to Man 5 the amount of points deductions for additional transfers was quite low. The bottom 4 though had the 4 highest amount of points deductions for early transfers. This is the closest thing that came to a correlation with final OR. Only 1 person ( the top scoring manager) took less hits than myself.
Immediate transfer points
This is how many points you transfer gained in the first gameweek after it’s transfer. Again another stat I thought would be quite useful but it had no bearing on the final points outcome. The top points were 8th and 9th on the list. As a stat it’s cloud by the number of transfers made.
Points per game for each position
Again this was pretty all over the place and it’s very dependent on where the individual managers invested their funds.
Goals, Assists and clean sheets
Now the amount of clean sheets you got did seem to correlate to some degree with your final OR although that wasn’t backed up by the defender Points Per Game. Also those who had more clean sheets (ignore the top manager) ended up with less goals and assists so again a function of where the funds were invested. However you could try and make a case that focusing on clean sheets did end up with a better points outcome
So what did we learn?
Just to start from the beginning. The primary purpose for me of doing the 10 top FPL managers articles is to establish a proxy for the template used by active successful managers. I define it as being a player or defensive team representation that’s within 7 of the 10 managers teams. I try and cover the template in order to minimise rank drops caused by these players that are popular with the serious active FPL managers.
So to me the 10 top managers articles have done their job over the course of the season.
I put the additional stats up just to see if we could get any additional learnings. Did we? Not really unfortunately.
You could say that there was some sort of correlation between those managers who took less hits and those who gained the most clean sheets as being the most successful but I think any statisticians would scoff at how provable that is.
For me personally I like the idea that not taking excessive hits and focusing on defence could be a decent way of playing. I feel that there are a decent amount of team defensive stats available and predicting clean sheets is easier than individual player performance.
However if I compare myself to the top 2 managers I’m someway behind on captain points and getting the attacking points.
That’s it hope you found it interesting. I hope to do something similar on the FFGeek contributors over the next few days.