fantasy premier league managers – the final rank of the 10 top FPL managers and some analysis


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Here’s our fantasy premier league managers article where we round up the final ranks of the 10 top managers I follow.  These managers finished the 3 seasons prior to this season inside the top 10k OR

fantasy premier league managers – the final rank of the 10 top FPL managers and some analysis

As I said the 10 top managers finished the 3 seasons prior to this one inside the top 10k.  That’s a remarkable achievement.

The final ranks

Here’s a schedule ordered by the highest final points at the top.  I got a few additional stats from the excellent site FPL statistico.  You just feed your FPL ID in to get the stats.  I’ve included myself in there just as a comparison point.  As you may know our very own Keith Spencer and Paul Williams were part of the 10.




fantasy premier league managers

The manager at the top finished in the top 100.  To show how hard FPL has become and how hard achieving a top 10k finish is he was the only manager who secured a 4th consecutive top 10k finish.  However an average finish of 43k for the 10 is no mean feat.

A couple of words about each individual stat

I’m just going to have a quick word on each stat and see whether there’s any correlation at all between their final OR and the stat itself.

Bench points

A pretty worthless stat really as it was influenced mainly by whether you had 2 rotating GKs or not.

Captain points

I would have thought this was going to be a quite crucial stat but it definitely wasn’t.  The 2 highest captain scores finished 8 and 9th in the final points tally.  Interestingly my conservative shield approach (when I could)  ended with me having the 2nd lowest captain points score.

Hits

Up to Man 5 the amount of points deductions for additional transfers was quite low.  The bottom 4 though had the 4 highest amount of points deductions for early transfers.  This is the closest thing that came to a correlation with final OR.  Only 1 person ( the top scoring manager) took less hits than myself.

Immediate transfer points

This is how many points you transfer gained in the first gameweek after it’s transfer.  Again another stat I thought would be quite useful but it had no bearing on the final points outcome.  The top points were 8th and 9th on the list.  As a stat it’s cloud by the number of transfers made.

Points per game for each position

Again this was pretty all over the place and it’s very dependent on where the individual managers invested their funds.

Goals, Assists and clean sheets

Now the amount of clean sheets you got did seem to correlate to some degree with your final OR although that wasn’t backed up by the defender Points Per Game.  Also those who had more clean sheets (ignore the top manager) ended up with less goals and assists so again a function of where the funds were invested.  However you could try and make a case that focusing on clean sheets did end up with a better points outcome




So what did we learn?

Just to start from the beginning.  The primary purpose for me of doing the 10 top FPL managers articles is to establish a proxy for the template used by active successful managers.  I define it as being a player or defensive team representation that’s within 7 of the 10 managers teams.  I try and cover the template in order to minimise rank drops caused by these players that are popular with the serious active FPL managers.

So to me the 10 top managers articles have done their job over the course of the season.

I put the additional stats up just to see if we could get any additional learnings.  Did we?  Not really unfortunately.

You could say that there was some sort of correlation between those managers who took less hits and those who gained the most clean sheets as being the most successful but I think any statisticians would scoff at how provable that is.

For me personally I like the idea that not taking excessive hits and focusing on defence could be a decent way of playing.  I feel that there are a decent amount of team defensive stats available and predicting clean sheets is easier than individual player performance.

However if I compare myself to the top 2 managers I’m someway behind on captain points and getting the attacking points.

That’s it hope you found it interesting.  I hope to do something similar on the FFGeek contributors over the next few days.

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9 thoughts on “fantasy premier league managers – the final rank of the 10 top FPL managers and some analysis”

  1. Great article Geek! They should have divided the immediate transfer column in number of transfers to see hoe effective was your subs

  2. I think that this year has also proven tyat using the chips in the right GW’s is very important to get a boost in the OR

  3. Those are some really fun stats to pore over. Question regarding the immediate transfer points; are they just the points gained by your new player, or are they how many your new player gained over and above your original player? I took a whole lot of hits (21) and am wondering if this is a tactic that paid off based on the stats. Wasn’t to try and break top 25k next season.

  4. The stats mean that you don’t have one way, one strategy that leads to a FPL success!
    Yaniv is right – it’s about how you deal with your chips

  5. I’m wondering about your comment that bench points stats are worthless. I alternated Foster and Patricio for most of the season rather than having a cheap keeper that didn’t play. I suppose it’s hard to measure the benefit gained by having the extra cash, but I’m convinced having two active keepers over the season pays off.

    • Hi Allan. I don’t think I explained that very well. I meant they were worthless in the context of being a predictor of your final outcome as they were really just a function of whether you had 2 GKs or 1.

  6. Very interesting results and good to reflect upon for strategy next year. Last week I went through all my hits, 44 in total, and in most cases they led to an improved score once I took off the transfers out.

    Next year I will not be afraid to take hits, especially when you want to bring in a new captain with an easy game. The most interesting thing was now looking at the above stats my immediate points gained was quite low in comparison to the top 10K players meaning that their transfers were more effective.

    Next year I will definitely not be afraid to be taking hits like I have been in previous seasons.

  7. I really enjoy simply reading all of your weblogs.I am interested in football a lot.As football is my favoruite game. Simply wanted to inform you that you have people like me who appreciate your work. Definitely a great post. Hats off to you! The information that you have provided is very helpful.

  8. Thanks for the article Geek. I love this website but I rarely post. My favourite articles are this one, bandwagons and imaginary wildcard.
    My last 3 seasons have all been top 10K finishes 6349, 224 and 6720. The season before that I ran two teams for the only time. My GW1 team finished 28770 whereas my GW2 team finished 5928.
    Keep up the good work.

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