Fantasy premier league – “ones to watch” midfielders – GW17 Buy Hold or Sell

I’ve provided the following stats to support the player choices and to guide you in your decisions.

1.  Goals and assists this year.

2.  Time per point scored this year.  This is how many minutes it takes for a Barclays fantasy premier league point to be scored over the course of this season. The lower the better obviously.

3.  Rotation risk.  High, medium or low.  High is the greatest risk of rotation.

4.  Fixture ease ranking:  The link is at the bottom of the article but essentially I’ve ranked all the teams by the ease of the first 6 fixtures.  The team with the best ranking ie 1 will have the easiest next fixtures of any of the fantasy premier league teams over the next 6 games.

5.  Consistency:  The % of times that the player got a goal or assist  as a % of games played

6.  I’ve also ranked them in their categories as who I think is currently the best choice

7.  Last 5 return consistency rate:   Its now time to take into account recent form so I look at the amount of times a player has returned in the last 5 games played

8.  I’ve also add a couple of fixture punts from time to time.  These are people not showing great form or consistency who now have some excellent fixtures which you may want to roll the dice with

Midfielders

1.  Silva (£9.2m) BUY

• Goals and assists:  4 goals 3 assists.  Time per point scored:   12.9  mins .  Rotation risk: low.   fixture ease ranking: 2nd.  Consistency 6/8   75%  Last 5 return consistency:  4/5

Started and scored in the rout over Arsenal.  Played 70 minutes against Leicester which was a bit of a surprise given back from injury.  Hard to predict whether this will affect his position in GW17.  My feeling is Pellegrini wont want to be without the injured Aguero and leave his other world class attacking force in Silva on the bench.  However Pellegrini isn’t easy to predict.  Will Aguero being absent affect his returns.  Maybe.  Aguero hasn’t played 2 premier league games.  Neither of which City won.  However it could mean Silva ends up playing behind the striker which would be a positive.  Its all unknowns for the moment.  Fulham away is a very tempting fixture.  Not one that you eally want to stand back and use as data gathering.

Next 6 fantasy premier league fixtures:

Fulham (A)
Liverpool (H)
Crystal Palace (H)
Swansea (A)
Newcastle (A)
Cardiff City (H)

2.  Ramsey (£7.6m) HOLD 

• Goals and assists:  8 goals 6 assists.  Time per point scored:    12.4 mins .  Rotation risk: medium.   fixture ease ranking: 5th.  Consistency 10/16  63%  Last 5 return consistency:  3/5

Returned again in the loss to City.  Still looks good value as he seems to have dropped his defensive duties and playing fairly centrally and advanced.  Good fixtures and a relatively cheap way of covering a high ownership player.  Will be interesting to see if his ownership drops with Walcott back in the team

Next 6 fantasy premier league fixtures:

Chelsea (H)
West Ham (A)
Newcastle (A)

Cardiff City (H)
Aston Villa (A)
Fulham (H)

3.  Ozil (£10.3m) HOLD

• Goals and assists:  4 goals 8 assists.  Time per point scored:  12.6  mins .  Rotation risk: low.   fixture ease ranking: 5th.  Consistency 8/13    62%        Last 5 return consistency:  4/5

Still mainly an assist based player with little in the way of shot stats.  Has been consistent and got another return away at City although definitely not one of his best games.  Good fixtures to come though and returns so far as good as anyone else.

Next 6 fantasy premier league fixtures:

Chelsea (H)
West Ham (A)
Newcastle (A)

Cardiff City (H)
Aston Villa (A)
Fulham (H)

4.  Walcott (£9.1m) HOLD

• Goals and assists:  2 goals 4 assists.  Time per point scored:  13.5  mins .  Rotation risk: low   fixture ease ranking: 5th.  Consistency 5/9   56%          last 5 return consistency rate:  3/5

Alot of fantasy premier league managers were waiting in the wings for him to start. No one could have anticipated his impact with 2 goals.  One of the few midfielders who can rely solely on shooting stats.  Good fixtures after the Chelsea game.

Next 6 fantasy premier league fixtures:

Chelsea (H)
West Ham (A)
Newcastle (A)

Cardiff City (H)
Aston Villa (A)
Fulham (H)

5.  Nasri (£8.3m )  HOLD

• Goals and assists:  4 goals 5 assists.  Time per point scored:  14.6  mins .  Rotation risk: medium  fixture ease ranking: 2nd  Consistency 8/16   50%          Last 5 consistency return rate:  2/5

Lack of shooting stats and set pieces maybe the reason for inconsistency.  Seems to have held his place since Navas returned though.  However their will always be a gametime shadow and it’s hard to see why you should hold him compared to Silva given the price difference.  If you have him though away to Fulham is not the time to sell.

Next 6 fantasy premier league fixtures:

Fulham (A)
Liverpool (H)
Crystal Palace (H)
Swansea (A)
Newcastle (A)
Cardiff City (H)

6.  Hazard (£10.0m) HOLD

• Goals and assists:  6 goals 7 assists.  Time per point scored:   13.8  mins .  Rotation risk: medium.   fixture ease ranking: 20th.  Consistency 7/16   44%  Last 5 return consistency:  3/5

Better at creating chances than getting shots in the box.  A low consistency rate due to the fact that most of his returns come in home games against the lower placed teams. ispel that though.  His performance away at Sunderland helped to dispel that though.  Not many fixtures meeting his favoured criteria except Sunderland at home.  With Walcott and Silva options with better fixtures after playing the Swansea game this maybe a selling point.

Next 6 fantasy premier league fixtures:

Arsenal (A)
Swansea (H)
Liverpool (H)
Southampton (A)
Hull City (A)
Man Utd (H)

7.  Mirallas (£7.2m) HOLD

• Goals and assists:  3 goals 4 assists.  Time per point scored:  17.4  mins .  Rotation risk: low.   fixture ease ranking: 6th.  Consistency 5/16   31%       Last 5 return consistency rate:  2/5

Mirallas’ gametime had a boost from the hamstring injury to Deul0feu.  Should return better given his advanced position and the amount of shots in the box he has.  Has good fixtures and its a bit of leap of faith on those facts.

Next 6 fantasy premier league fixtures:

Swansea (A)
Sunderland (H)
Southampton (H)
Stoke City (A)
Norwich (H)
West Brom (A)

8.  Cabaye (£6.5m) HOLD

• Goals and assists:  3 goals 4 assists.  Time per point scored:  17.1  mins .  Rotation risk: low  fixture ease ranking: 7th.  Consistency 7/13  54%          Last 5 consistency return rate:  3/5

Not a bad return rate for the price so far from the Frenchman.  Playing in a slightly more advanced role which saw his goal against Man Utd.  Has set piece domination which is a big advantage for a player not in a top 4 challenging team.  No underlying stats to speak of its all on set pieces.

Next 6 fantasy premier league fixtures:

Crystal Palace (A)
Stoke City (H)
Arsenal (H)
West Brom (A)
Man City (H)
West Ham (A)

9.  Coutinho (£8.6m) HOLD

• Goals and assists:  1 goals 1 assists.  Time per point scored:  25.9  mins .  Rotation risk: low  fixture ease ranking: 15th.  Consistency 2/11 18%          Last 5 consistency return rate:  2/5

Anyone owning him must have had his head in his hands seeing him not return in a 5-0 win.  Is doing everything write except scoring.  It has to change in my view its just a matter of when.  Cardiff at home gives him another opportunity to rectify the position.

Next 6 fantasy premier league fixtures:

Cardiff City (H)
Man City (A)
Chelsea (A)
Hull City (H)
Stoke City (A)
Aston Villa (H)

Budget midfielders

1.  Fer (£6.0m) BUY – 3 goals and an assist from his last 6 since having found his feet.  Excellent fixtures.

2.  Redmond (£4.6m) HOLD   –   Back in the first team with 3 assists in his first 6 games back which is a good return.  Has gametime issues though when Snodgrass and Pilkington return to the team

3.  Shelvy (£5.7m) HOLD – 2 goals and 3 assists in his last 6 looks an excellent record.  Will it continue with Bony and Michu back.

4.  R Morrison (£5.1m) HOLD –  Seems to have no gametime risk.  Slowed down the returns though with a only a goal and an assist in his last 7 but looks threatening

5.  Henderson (£5.9m) BUY – A goal and an assist inn the game against Spurs.  Gets into the box and has recently shown some good underlying stats.  Playing in an advanced role.  This may be temporary but always always a strong back to back threat even when playing deeper.

6.   Whittingham (£5.1m) HOLD –   Steady secure gametime position.  Has pens and  some set piece involvement.   Great goal last week after 1 return in his last 9.

7.   Bannan (£4.4m) BUY – 1 goal and 1 assist in the 8 games since back.  Creates chances.

8.  Barkley (£5.1m) HOLD – Excellent play not being translated into returns due to a little lacking in the final ball.  Incredibly not returned in 9 starts.  Has to come right.

9.  Amalfitano  (£4.9m) HOLD – No returns in 9.  Home to Hull is not the time to sell though.

8.  Ireland (£4.6m) BUY – bit of a punt on holding his place behind the striker but its now 2 consecutive games ion that position.

10.  Januzaj (£4.9m) HOLD –    Has great potential but really rotation prone. 2 goals and 3 assists in the 10 games he has played is a good return though.  Should play after rest midweek.

11.  Sterling (£4.9m) BUY – a goal and an assist in the 4 games back since bac rest aren’t.   Cardiff next is a great fixture even if the fixtures after that aren’t great.  Will always have gametime issues but for the price in such a strong attacking team its worth the punt in my mind.

11.  Brunt (£5.0m)  HOLD – a goal and 2 assists in the 7 games since back from injury.  Good set piece involvement.

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