Here’s an article where regular contributor Joseph Crilley talks us through some of the key learnings in the fantasy premier league pre-season. Joseph finished with an overall rank of 13k last season.
FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE PRE-SEASON THOUGHTS
As many FPL managers do, I have been keeping a keen eye on how certain players and teams have been performing in the fantasy premier league pre-season. In this article, I’m going to give you some of my thoughts on pre-season so far.
Man City form
As a Spurs fan, I did not particularly enjoy our 3-0 loss to Man City out in Nashville last weekend. However, from an FPL point of view, it made me sit up and take notice of our opposition. They were brilliant with only Lloris and the woodwork keeping the score respectable. Before that game I wanted some Man City attacking coverage in my team; I now consider it essential. They have started the season on fire in recent years (10 wins in all competitions to start last season) and this could happen again.
For me personally, De Bruyne is the one to own as he has been heavily involved in a lot of good things during pre-season. He’s picked up 3 assists so far and look ready to improve and break the 200-point barrier for the first time. Also, I hope that he has minimal rotation risk compared to the likes of Sané, Sterling and even Aguero. Gabriel Jesus does look a good option but I’m not sure that I want to use one of my premium striker slots on him with Kane and Lukaku about.
Surprisingly, I’m also tempted by a defender, specifically Danilo who should be a starter until Mendy is back from injury. He was very advanced against Spurs while playing LWB, had a couple of good chances and is reasonably priced at 5.5mil. It also hurts me a little to say but Kyle Walker also looks a good, more secured option, but perhaps a bit pricey at 6.5mil. Kompany is also tempting at 6.0mil having finished last year with an impressive points per game of 5.2 but I’m not sure that I’m prepared to trust him with his injury record.
In-form budget players
Every year there are budget players who do well in pre-season and as a result end up in many FPL teams for GW1. Some of these succeed, see Capoue last year and Michu in 2012/13, and some fail badly, see Routledge last year and Boselli in 2010/11. Picking a budget midfielder/forward can be key to a good start and can help increase team value early as people hop on the bandwagon. Pre-season can be a good indicator and there have been a few players that have caught my eye.
There are in-form players with proven history who I tend to favour as they come with a little less risk. Willian (4 goals, 1 assist in pre-season) has been on fire and appears ready to step up in Hazard’s absence. Aaron Ramsey (1 goal, 1 assist) finished the season strongly and has carried the form into pre-season as he appears to thrive in Arsenal’s new system with 3 at the back. Jay Rodriguez (2 goals) looks ready to take his chance to shine at his new club, West Brom, and replicate his season in 2013/14 of 15 goals and 3 assists.
Also, some new players to the league have performed well but personally, I prefer to wait and see how they settle. Tom Ince (4 goals) has been regularly finding the net and is looking like he may finally be ready to make the step up in the Premier League with Huddersfield. It’s a similar story for Dwight Gayle (4 goals) who should be Newcastle’s main man this season and could be a good 3rd striker option. Tammy Abraham (2 goals) is in line to be Swansea’s first choice while Llorente recovers from his broken arm, presenting a decent budget option for the opening gameweeks.
Chelsea clean sheet worries
The top 3 points scorers among defenders last year were all Chelsea players and they remain popular this year. Nonetheless, given that they finished the season with just 3 clean sheets out of their last 16 games, I am slightly worried about their prospects. These worries increased when looking at pre-season as they have conceded 7 goals in 4 games. Of course, players such as Alonso can register goals & assists to make up for the lack of clean sheets.
Even so, if I’m paying 6.0+mil for a defender, I would like a decent return of clean sheets for my money. As such, I am currently ignoring Chelsea defenders and leaving them out of my team. Of course, Chelsea did record the 3rd highest number of clean sheets last year and not including their defenders in my FPL team could prove a major misstep.
Liverpool prospects
Earlier in pre-season, Jurgen Klopp sent a warning to his players and FPL managers alike, stating to expect a season of rotation. At this point, I was prepared to ignore their assets, especially as they will play their Champions League play-off games either side of GW3. After seeing them blow away German sides Hertha Berlin and Bayern Munich though, I have had to reconsider. Salah and the potentially departing Coutinho have been brilliant and Mané returned to score against Bayern.
As we saw last season, it is tricky to pick which one will return best each week but it is worth picking one and sticking with them. Given their fixture proof nature, it is likely that one of the mentioned 3 players will appear in my GW1 team. I am currently leaning towards Salah with the uncertainty around Coutinho’s future and him being 0.5 cheaper than Mané.
Lukaku = Essential?
Just a quick note on Big Rom. He has 3 goals in pre-season and will be the key forward in a team that created a substantial amount of chances last year. His ownership is extremely high and due to his captaincy potential, that makes him dangerous not to own. Therefore, he has form, fixtures, high ownership and captaincy potential; he’s 100% in my team.
Summary
In my opinion, Liverpool and Man City coverage is looking crucial and Lukaku is an absolute must-have. I have my apprehensions about the Chelsea defence which is something that could easily be disproven. While it is important to consider pre-season form when deciding on your GW1, try and avoid getting too caught up on it. For every Michu, there’s a Boselli waiting to make you look foolish.
Joseph thanks excellent overview of the fantasy premier league pre-season
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