fantasy premier league – should we be spending our cash on defence, midfield or forwards?


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Where should we spend on money in fantasy premier league?  Were do you get the best returns?  I’ve done some basic calculations to see if it sheds any light n how we should use our cash

I’m sure you’ve had discussions with various other fantasy premier league managers as to how you spend your money.  There’s definitely a large group who believe you should have only £4.0m-£4.5m defenders play 3-4-3 and spend all your money on midfielders and forwards.  Is that right?  I look at this in 2 articles on the subject.

Firstly I took the top 10 Points per game defenders, midfielders and forwards but disregarded those who hadn’t played a decent amount of games and compared their price to the amount of points per game they returned.  I turned this in to a ratio of points per game for every £1m spent and put it in to the tables below.  I’ve showed them individually and then averaged them  to see what that showed.  Again apologies to any statisticians for the small sample sizes but hopefully it will get a general message

 

 

Defender FPL price FPL PPG Ratio of Price/PPG
1Ivanovic£7.1m4.90.69
2 Evra£7.0m4.70.67
3 O’Brien£4.5m4.61.02
4 Gibbs£5.6m4.50.80
5 A Cole£6.5m4.40.67
6 Zabaleta£5.9m4.30.73
7 Rafael£6.0m4.30.72
8Evans£5.8m4.30.74
9 Johnson£6.4m4.20.66
10 Baines£7.5m4.10.55

 

Defence average ratio for every £1m you get 0.725 points per game in return

 

 

Midfielder FPL value FPL PPG Ratio of price /PPG
1 Bale£9.8m6.50.66
2 Walcott£9.0m6.30.70
3 Fellaini£7.4m6.20.84
4 Mata£9.9m6.20.63
5 Michu£8.2m6.10.74
6 Cazorla£9.6m5.80.60
7Gerrard£9.4m5.40.57
8Hazard£9.5m5.20.54
9Snodgrass£6.2m4.50.73
10Walters£6.6m4.40.67

 

Midfield average ratio for every £1m you get 0.668 points per game in return

 

Forward FPL value FPL PPG Ratio of price /PPG
1 RVP£14.0m7.10.51
2 Suarez£10.4m6.30.61
3 Ba£8.6m5.80.67
4 Rooney£11.8m5.80.49
5 Tevez£8.9m5.60.63
6 Berbatov£7.1m5.10.72
7Fletcher£7.0m4.90.70
8Lambert£6.3m4.80.76
9Podolski£8.2m4.60.56
10Defoe£8.5m4.60.54

 

forward average ratio for every £1m you get 0.619 points per game in return

 

Summary and findings

Defence average ratio for every £1m you get 0.725 points per game in return

Midfield average ratio for every £1m you get 0.668 points per game in return

Forward average ratio for every £1m you get 0.619 points per game in return

 

Lets also compare similarly priced players:

approx £6.0m  

£6.0m Rafael 4.3 PPG

Snodgrass £6.2m 4.5 PPG

Lambert £6.3m  4.8 PPG

approx £7.0m – Evra £7.0m 4.7 PPG

Fellaini  £7.4m  6.2 PPG

Fletcher £7.0m 4.9 PPG

 

Here’s some key points

  • Whilst defenders gave the lowest PPG they returned the best ratios on average suggesting that they definitely shouldn’t be ignored
  • when comparing similar priced players in defence, midfield and forwards though,  the returns weren’t remarkably different apart from Fellaini distorting the figures
  • However no defender gets you the high PPG you would want so playing 5-4-1 with a forwards emphasis wont be the answer either
  • The difference between forwards and midfield average ratio isn’t that significant
  • Remember while RVP may seem bad value ratio wise his captain reliability makes the ratio irrelevant
  • Buying the right midfielders and forwards at the right time, eg by looking at fixtures as one way of identifying bursts of returns, you maximise your point returns.  Defenders who will mainly only return a clean sheet and no bonus and there cant give you those bursts of returns

 

To finish off then there doesn’t seem any evidence to ignore the defensive side of your team as on average they give better value returns and  similarly priced players in defence midfield and forwards seem give similar returns.  However to get the higher PPG returns you wont get these from defenders and as defenders will generally only return a clean sheet cant get you the bursts of points forwards can until they score.

I generally going to stick with a bit of a balance but still retain an emphasis on midfield and forwards and rotate some parts of my defence but with a solid core.

 

 

 

10 thoughts on “fantasy premier league – should we be spending our cash on defence, midfield or forwards?”

  1. i think there is a error in 2ºparagraph : “should have only £4.0m-£4.5m defenders play 3-4-3 and spend all your money on midfielders and defenders”—–> midfielders and forwards

    • HI , Sorry for delay in replying. Unfortunately history has shown this season that cahill is no better than 3rd choice CB. I think the back 4 will be Azpili Ivanovic terry and Cole when terry’s fit and Luiz will stay in midfield. its possible that benitez could put cahill first and put Ivanovic to RB. i wouldnt buy him personally. I would pay the extra for Luiz or take a risk on Azpili. If tery doesnt make it then cahill will play so i would hold on until its clearer

      hope that heps

  2. Is this a good team??:
    – Federici-
    – Evra- Ivanovic- Harte-
    – Fellaini- Walcott- Santi Cazorla- Michu-
    – Van Persie- Ba- Fletcher-

    • Hi, Tommy

      Not sure who your other GK is but bunn is a better back up than Fed
      I would go for shorey rather than harte, i think shorey will be first choice otherwise Shaw of saints or Wisdonm of Liverpool
      Im not a huge cazorla fan although if its just for the DGW thats understandable
      I personally like Suarez and would have him but Ba Im a fan of if you can stand the rotation. Fletcher again im not a huge fan but he does have good fixtures

      Hope that helps

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