fantasy premier league team tips GW10 – analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers


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Here’s our fantasy premier league team tips GW10 article where we analyse the teams of 10 top FPL managers. These 10 managers have not finished outside the overall rank of the top 10k in the last 3 seasons. Considering how variable the last 3 years have been this is remarkable consistency and shows an ability to adapt strategy in different seasons. It also gives you a view other than my own on strategy and player selection.

fantasy premier league team tips GW10 – analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers

If the article is too long there’s a template team for the top 10 FPL managers analysed towards the end of the article.

Firstly, there are 9 new managers in the 10 this season and I’m delighted to say that one of them is our own FFGeek contributor Keith Spencer. Keith’s last 3 years history are 17/18 (3,940), 16/17 ( 325) and 15/16 (9,280).

We’ve also added Paul Williams to the FFGeek team who is also part of the 10 top managers. His history is 17/18 (412), 16/17 ( 1,382) and 15/16 (7,164). See his last article here

The criteria I’ve always been looking for is managers who’ve finished in the top 10k for the last 3 years when FPL has become considerably harder due to the amount of people playing and the information available.

It took me hours and hours to track down 10 managers who’ve been so consistent and my opinion after doing so is that there are probably only 20 or so in the world that qualify.

The 10 managers stats

These managers are unbelievable and every bit as impressive as last season

1. The overall average finishing overall rank of the top 10 managers in the last 3 seasons is 3,667

2. The top 10 FPL managers have not been out of the top 10k in the last 3 seasons (ie 30 times playing)

3. 7 of the 10 have finished in the top 1,000 in the last 3 seasons

Gameweek 9 review





A mixed week for the 10 FPL managers. Only 4 of the 10 had a green arrow

The average score of the managers in GW9 was 45 compared to the game average of 43. That’s 2 points and 4% above the game average score. High score of the 10 was 56. The low score was 36. A spread of 20 for a low scoring gameweek.

The average overall rank of the top 10 FPL managers is 120k. A worsening of rank of 2k from last week. The best overall rank is in the 600’s and the lowest 632k. The low score distorts the average. The median overall rank is better at 68k an improvement of 7k from last week

The average total points are 569

The average team value is still £102.9m

My score as you may have seen in my early FFGeek team thoughts article was poor at 40. That was higher than only 1 of the managers and my total points of 578 and OR of 34k is better than 6 of the 10 managers.

The combined total of individual players

I’ve included where there is a minimum of a player in 3 out of the 10 FPL managers teams

Goalkeeper/Defence

Alonso is in 10 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Wan Bissaka is in 9 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Bennett(Wolves) , Doherty and Robertson are in 4 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Trippier, Hamer, and Fabianski are in 3 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Goalkeeper/Defence by team

Wolves GK/Defs are represented 15 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Chelsea GK/Defs are represented 11 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

C Palace GK/Defs are represented 10 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Liverpool GK/Defs are represented 7 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Bournemouth are represented 4 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Man City, Huddersfield, Watford, West Ham, Spurs and Arsenal GK/Defs are represented 3 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Midfielders

Hazard is in 9 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Richarlison, Salah, Maddison and Hojbjerg are in 6 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Fraser is in 5 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Forwards

Aguero is in 10 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Mitrovic and Wilson are in 5 of the 10 FPL teams

Ings is in 3 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Gameweek 9 captain choice

10 of the 10 FPL managers went with Aguero

The FFGeek poll was 68% Aguero and 5% Hazard

The Site 1 poll in my GW9 captain choice article was 43% Aguero and 14% Hazard

The top 10k captain choice (from the excellent free site FPL discovery) was 67% Aguero and 7% Hazard virtually the same as the FFGeek Poll.

Formations

6 managers played 3-4-3

2 managers played 4-3-3

1 manager played 3-5-2

1 manager played 5-3-2

Wildcards, chips, transfers and hits

No managers used their wildcard this week the total remaining at 7 managers who have used it

None have used their triple captain, free hit or bench boost chip

Transfers in and out

I only summarise the transfers when a player is transferred in more than once.

Transfers in

9 of the 10 managers made a transfer.

Wilson and Aguero were transferred in by 2 managers

No one else was transferred in more than once

Transfers out

Zaha are Kane were transferred out by 3 managers

Trippier was transferred out by 2 managers

No one else was transferred out more than once

Hits

3 managers took a 4 point deduction for an extra transfer.

The leading manager of the 10 managers team

An ordinary points scored of 44 and he is now in the 600’s OR

fantasy premier league team tips GW10

The top 10k overall rank vs the 10 FPL managers

The schedule shows the players in the top 10k overall rank teams percentage wise vs the 10 top FPL managers I follow.

GKs Top 10k 10 FPL managers
Patrício 40 40
Ederson 26 10
Alisson 7 n/a
Hennessey 6 10
Fabianski 4 30
Ryan 4 10
Begovic 3 20
DEFs
Wan-Bissaka 79 90
Alonso 74 100
Robertson 60 40
Doherty 49 40
Trippier 41 30
Bennett 36 40
A-Arnold 33 20
Mendy 26 20
MIDs
Hazard 98 90
Richarlison 63 60
Maddison 57 60
Fraser 42 50
Salah 34 60
Mané 30 10
Sterling 17 10
Hojbjerg 20 60
FWDs
Agüero 82 100
Mitrovic 48 50
Wilson 42 50
Lacazette 24 20
Arnautovic 16 n/a
Kane 15 10
Jiménez 14 n/a
Ings n/a 30

 

The top 10k average score was 42 compared to the top 10 FPL managers of 45

I use 30% as a rule of thumb as a significant variation between the two teams and the only player that are different to this extent are

Hojbjerg owned by the top 10 FPL managers more but not relevant as a bench warmer for FPL teams.

I’ll say it again that I’m quite shocked at the lack of variation in the 2 sets of teams. Even as recently as last season they would have been very different. There are no real battlegrounds at the moment

All the information is provided by the truly fantastic free site FPL discovery.

The combined FPL managers teams

Here’s a team which tries to make a combination from the most represented players.  I’ve returned to making it more of a menu than a team.  The TV is £103.8m.



fantasy premier league team tips GW10

So who’s essential?

Anyone or any defensive team that is owned by 7/10 of these managers or by 7/10 of the top 10k I would take a lot of convincing not to own irrespective of my thoughts about them. In terms of serious managers likely to finish with high overall ranks I won’t be getting left behind by players that are owned by a large proportion of these managers or by a large proportion of the top 10k.

That would mean:

A Palace defender (Wan Bissaka 9/10 top 10 managers and 79% top 10k) and a Chelsea defender (Alonso 10/10 top 10 managers and 74% top 10k) and a Wolves defender (represented 13 times in the 10 managers teams (Doherty for me).  A Liverpool defender has hit the 70% of teams of the 10 top FPL managers.  Also top 10k teams Robertson 60% and TAA 33%

Hazard (owned by 9/10 managers and 98% of the top 10k) and Aguero (owned by 10/10 managers and 82% of the top 10k)

Salah drops out of that essential status by that definition because now owned by 6/10 of the managers and 34% of the top 10k. I would think about the fact that Liverpool have Cardiff in GW10 and Fulham GW12 may temper the transfer out enthusiasm.

That’s it. Hope you found it useful

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