fantasy premier league team tips GW12 – analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers


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Here’s our fantasy premier league team tips GW12 article where we analyse the teams of 10 top FPL managers. These 10 managers have not finished outside the overall rank of the top 10k in the last 3 seasons. Considering how variable the last 3 years have been this is remarkable consistency and shows an ability to adapt strategy in different seasons. It also gives you a view other than my own on strategy and player selection.

fantasy premier league team tips GW12 – analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers

If the article is too long there’s a template team for the top 10 FPL managers analysed towards the end of the article.

Firstly, there are 9 new managers in the 10 this season and I’m delighted to say that one of them is our own FFGeek contributor Keith Spencer. Keith’s last 3 years history are 17/18 (3,940), 16/17 ( 325) and 15/16 (9,280).

We’ve also added Paul Williams to the FFGeek team who is also part of the 10 top managers. His history is 17/18 (412), 16/17 ( 1,382) and 15/16 (7,164).

The criteria I’ve always been looking for is managers who’ve finished in the top 10k for the last 3 years when FPL has become considerably harder due to the amount of people playing and the information available.

It took me hours and hours to track down 10 managers who’ve been so consistent and my opinion after doing so is that there are probably only 20 or so in the world that qualify.

The 10 managers stats

These managers are unbelievable and every bit as impressive as last season

1. The overall average finishing overall rank of the top 10 managers in the last 3 seasons is 3,667

2. The top 10 FPL managers have not been out of the top 10k in the last 3 seasons (ie 30 times playing)

3. 7 of the 10 have finished in the top 1,000 in the last 3 seasons

Gameweek 11 review

A good week for the 10 FPL managers. 7 of the 10 had a green arrow

The average score of the managers in GW11 was 69 compared to the game average of 52. That’s 17 points and 33% above the game average score. High score of the 10 was 91. The low score was 62 -4. A spread of 33 for a relatively high scoring gameweek.

The average overall rank of the top 10 FPL managers is 106k. An improvement of rank of 3k from last week. The best overall rank is now in the top 100 and the lowest 672k. The low score distorts the average. The median overall rank is better at 39k an improvement of 5k from last week

The average total points are 713

The average team value is £103.0m

My score as you may have seen in my early FFGeek team thoughts article was score was poor at 60. That was higher than only 1 of the managers after netting off the 4 point hit and my total points of 711 and OR of 39k is better than 5 of the 10 managers.

The combined total of individual players

I’ve included where there is a minimum of a player in 3 out of the 10 FPL managers teams

Goalkeeper/Defence

Alonso is in 9 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Wan Bissaka is in 8 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Doherty is in 5 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Hamer,  Patricio and Robertson are in 4 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Fabianski and Balbuena are in 3 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Goalkeeper/Defence by team

Wolves GK/Defs are represented 13 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Chelsea GK/Defs are represented 10 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Liverpool and C Palace GK/Defs are represented 8 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

West Ham are represented 6 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Man City are represented 5 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Brighton and Huddersfield GK/Defs are represented 4 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Midfielders

Salah is in 10 of the FPL managers teams

Hazard is in 8 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Richarlison is in 7 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Maddison is in 6 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Hojbjerg is in 5 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Fraser is in 3 of the FPL managers teams

Forwards

Aguero is in 10 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Arnautovic is in 6 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Mitrovic and Wilson are in 4 of the 10 FPL teams

Ings is in 3 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Gameweek 10 captain choice

10 of the 10 FPL managers went with Aguero

The FFGeek poll was 71% Aguero and 11% Hazard

The Site 1 poll in my GW11 captain choice article was 42% Aguero and 18% Hazard

The top 10k captain choice (from the excellent free site FPL discovery) was 72% Aguero and 9% Hazard. Again quite close the FFGeek Poll.

Formations

Sorry didn’t get to this early enough

Wildcards, chips, transfers and hits

1 manager used their wildcard this week the total now 8 managers who have used it

Here’s the team:

 fantasy premier league team tips GW12

None have used their triple captain, free hit or bench boost chip

Transfers in and out

I only summarise the transfers when a player is transferred in more than once and don’t include the wildcard transfers.

Transfers in

10 of the 10 managers made a transfer.

Arnautovic was transferred in by 4 managers

Balbuena and Mendy were transferred in by 2 managers

No one else was transferred in more than once

Transfers out

No one else was transferred out more than once amazingly

Hits

1 manager took a 4 point deduction for an extra transfer.

The leading manager’s team

An incredible score of 91 and he moves into the top 100 OR.  His transfers were bold ones set up for this week.  Hazard out Mane in and Arnautovic in Ings out

fantasy premier league team tips GW12

The top 10k overall rank vs the 10 FPL managers

The schedule shows the players in the top 10k overall rank teams percentage wise vs the 10 top FPL managers I follow.

GKs Top 10k 10 FPL managers
Ederson 30 10
Fabianski 20 30
Patrício 12 40
Ryan 12 10
Foster 8 10
Alisson 5 10
Hart 3 10
DEFs
Alonso 82 90
Wan-Bissaka 76 80
Robertson 65 40
Mendy 60 50
Doherty 47 50
Bennett 28 20
Trippier 24 20
Laporte 11 n/a
Alex-Arnold 9 20
Balbuena n/a 30
MIDs
Hazard 87 80
Salah 65 100
Richarlison 52 70
Maddison 47 60
Fraser 46 30
Mané 38 10
Højbjerg 16 50
Barkley 15 20
FWDs
Agüero 84 100
Wilson 54 40
Arnautovic 41 60
Mitrovic 37 40
Lacazette 9 n/a
Vardy 7 n/a
Murray 5 n/a

The top 10k average score was 63 compared to the top 10 FPL managers of 69

I use 30% as a rule of thumb as a significant variation between the two teams and the only player that are different to this extent are

Salah has become a point of difference with 65% of the top 10k owning him vs 100% of the 10 top managers.

Hojbjerg owned by the top 10 FPL managers more but not relevant as a bench warmer for FPL teams.

I’ll say it again that I’m quite shocked at the lack of variation in the 2 sets of teams. Even as recently as last season they would have been very different. Salah is the only battle ground whereas last season there would have been 4 or 5.

All the information is provided by the truly fantastic free site FPL discovery.

The combined FPL managers teams

Here’s a team which tries to make a combination from the most represented players. I’ve returned to making it more of a menu than a team and I’m not trying to make it realistic. The TV is £106.0m.

fantasy premier league team tips GW12

So who’s essential?

Anyone or any defensive team that is owned by 7/10 of these managers or by 7/10 of the top 10k I would take a lot of convincing not to own irrespective of my thoughts about them. In terms of serious managers likely to finish with high overall ranks I won’t be getting left behind by players that are owned by a large proportion of these managers or by a large proportion of the top 10k.

That would mean:

Alonso 9/10 top 10 managers and 82% top 10k) and a Wolves defender (represented 13 times in the 10 managers teams (Doherty for me). A Liverpool defender has hit the 80% of teams of the 10 top FPL managers. Also top 10k teams Robertson 65% and TAA 9%

Hazard (owned by 8/10 managers and 87% of the top 10k) and Aguero (owned by 10/10 managers and 84% of the top 10k).

Salah also now has that status owned by 10/10 of the managers even if only 65% of the top 10k.  Richarlison has now hit the 7 of the 10 top 10 FPL managers threshold.  He is owned by 52% of the top 10k

Wan Bissaka is owned by 8/10 top 10 managers and 76% of top 10k. However given they Spurs and Man Utd next you would argue that they weren’t essential and will most likely be confined to sub benches anyway.

That’s it. Hope you found it useful

To see another top managers plans for GW12 See Andrew Fergusons team in FPL and other formats.  Andrew finished 715 OR last season

Also see our fixture ease article for players with good fixtures coming up and my early thoughts on the FFGeek team article

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