fantasy premier league team tips GW19 – analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers

Here’s our fantasy premier league team tips GW19 article where we analyse the teams of 10 top FPL managers. These 10 managers have not finished outside the overall rank of the top 10k in the last 3 seasons. Considering how variable the last 3 years have been this is remarkable consistency and shows an ability to adapt strategy in different seasons. It also gives you a view other than my own on strategy and player selection.

fantasy premier league team tips GW19 – analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers

If the article is too long there’s a combined FPL managers team for the top 10 FPL managers analysed towards the end of the article.

Firstly, there are 9 new managers in the 10 this season and I’m delighted to say that one of them is our own FFGeek contributor Keith Spencer. Keith’s last 3 years history are 17/18 (3,940), 16/17 ( 325) and 15/16 (9,280).

We’ve also added Paul Williams to the FFGeek team who is also part of the 10 top managers. His history is 17/18 (412), 16/17 ( 1,382) and 15/16 (7,164).

The criteria I’ve always been looking for is managers who’ve finished in the top 10k for the last 3 years when FPL has become considerably harder due to the amount of people playing and the information available.

It took me hours and hours to track down 10 managers who’ve been so consistent and my opinion after doing so is that there are probably only 20 or so in the world that qualify.

The 10 managers stats

Just to let you know I’ve taken out the person who was distorting the average very negatively and replaced them with someone else meeting the last 3 seasons less than 10k OR. I haven’t amended the calculations below but they will be improved due to the substitution.

These managers are unbelievable and every bit as impressive as last season.

1. The overall average finishing overall rank of the top 10 managers in the last 3 seasons is 3,667

2. The top 10 FPL managers have not been out of the top 10k in the last 3 seasons (ie 30 times playing)

3. 7 of the 10 have finished in the top 1,000 in the last 3 seasons

Gameweek 18 review

A mixed week for the 10 FPL managers. 5 of the 10 had a green arrow

The average score of the managers in GW18 was 57 taking into account point deductions for extra transfers. That’s compared to the game average of 55. That’s 2 points and 4% above the game average score. High score of the 10 was 83. The low score was 33. A incredibly high spread of 50 for a relatively high scoring gameweek.

The average overall rank of the top 10 FPL managers is 42k an improvement of rank from last week 44k. The best overall rank is now in the top 50 and the lowest 103k.

The average total points are 1,112

The average team value is £103.7m

I’ll go through my score in an early FFGeek team article.

The combined total of individual players

I’ve included where there is a minimum of a player in 3 out of the 10 FPL managers teams

Goalkeeper/Defence

Wan Bissaka is in 9 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Doherty is in 8 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Alonso, Digne and Fabianski are in 6 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Balbuena is in 5 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Robertson is in 4 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Goalkeeper/Defence by team

Wolves GK/Defs are represented 13 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

West Ham GK/Defs are represented 11 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

C Palace GK/Defs are represented 9 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Chelsea GK/Defs are represented 8 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Liverpool and Everton GK/Defs are represented 6 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Fulham and Brighton are represented 2 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Midfielders

Richarlison is in 9 of the FPL managers teams

Salah and Sane are in 6 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Felipe Anderson is in 6 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Fraser and Snodgrass are in 4 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Hazard is in 3/10 FPL managers teams

Forwards

Kane is in 8 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Aubameyang and Wilson are in 5 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Jimenez and Kara are in 3 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Gameweek 18 captain choice

5 of the 10 FPL managers went with Sterling

2 of the 10 FPL managers went with Hazard

1 of the 10 FPL managers went with Kane

1 of the 10 FPL managers went with Sane

1 of the 10 FPL managers went with Aubameyang

The FFGeek poll was 23% Sterling and 18% Sane 16% Aubameyang and 13% Hazard

The Site 1 poll in my GW18 captain choice article was 26% Sterling, 18% Aubameyang, 13 % Sane and 12% Hazard

The top 10k captain choice (from the excellent free site FPL discovery) was 44% Sterling and 20% Hazard, 15% Sane and 8% Aubameyang. The FFGeek poll this time was not  consistent at all.

Formations

Sorry not covered this week

Wildcards, chips, transfers and hits

All 10 managers now have used their wildcard with one using it this gameweek.  Here’s the team he picked which was a complete disaster with 33 points

None have used their triple captain, free hit or bench boost chip.

I imagine the triple captain chip and the bench boost chips will be used when their is a double gameweek.  This is where teams play twice due to FA Cup postponed games being put into other gameweeks.  This is usually around GW34 and GW37

The free hit chip will probably be used in the week where the fixtures are depleted by the FA Cup quarter finals.  This could leave only 4 or 5 games in the gameweek depending on how premier league teams advance.

Transfers in and out

I only summarise the transfers when a player is transferred in more than once.I haven’t included the wildcard transfers.

7 of the 10 managers made a transfer.

Transfers in

No one was transferred in more than once

Transfers out

No one was transferred out more than once

Hits

No manager took a 4 point deduction for an extra transfer

Transfer poll comparison

There were only a small amount of transfers this week so I won’t be doing it

The top 10k overall rank vs the 10 FPL managers

The schedule shows the players in the top 10k overall rank teams percentage wise vs the 10 top FPL managers I follow.

The top 10k average score was 53 compared to the 10 top managers average of 57.

I use 30% as a rule of thumb as a significant variation between the two player sets. Here’s a breakdown:

Owned by more than 30% of the top 10k over the 10 FPL managers

No one

Owned by more than 30% of the 10 top FPL managers over the top 10k OR

Balbuena owned by 5 of the 10 top FPL managers but 9% of the top 10k

Digne owned by 6 of the 10 top FPL managers but 21% of the top 10k

Richarlison owned by 9 of the 10 top FPL managers but 58% of the top 10k

All the information is provided by the truly fantastic free site FPL discovery.

We’re now back to a situation where the top 10k and the 10 top FPL managers teams are reasonably similar

The combined FPL managers teams

Here’s a team which tries to make a combination from the most represented players. Please note that it is meant to be a menu of players rather than a realistic team and it’s value is nothing like achievable

So who’s worth considering as essential?

I define this by either 70% of the top 10k own a player or defensive team or 7 of the 10 top FPL managers own him

Doherty (Wolves defence represented 13 times in the 10 FPL managers teams)

Alonso (Chelsea defence represented 8 times in the 10 FPL managers)

Fabianski or Balbuena (West Ham defence/GK represented in 9 of the 10 FPL managers teams)

Richarlison (owned by 9 of the 10 FPL managers)

Kane (owned by 8 of the 10 FPL managers teams)

Plus a maybe

Wan Bissaka (owned 9 of the 10 top FPL managers but is often a bench player so maybe avoidable)

So that’s 5 essentials and 1 maybe. This leaves room for 9 differentials/bench two pointers.  The template is really being split at the moment.

The 4th placed of the 10 top manager’s team

Here’s the 4th top scoring manager who currently has an OR of 24k. His team value is £103.7m.

A disappointing score of 52 this week.

He owns 4 of the essential 5 and the 2nd tier “essential” of Wan Bissaka.

He has a template replacement player of Aubameyang for Kane

He has 2 bench players in Hamer and Hojbjerg

That makes 8. He therefore has 7 non template players to make up ground with

Allison

Felipe Anderson

Salah

Hazard

Wilson

Chicharito

Digne

Alot of the players though are fairly popular players (and you’ll see a number are in the combined team) even though they don’t meet my template definition.

So his template replacement player of Aubameyang more or less matched Kane

Only 2 of his non template players out of 7 returned and his captain failed which is why he ended up with a red arrow, albeit only a 4k red arrow.

That’s it. Hope you found it useful

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