Here’s our fantasy premier league team tips article where 2 more FFGeek Contributors show their early draft teams. There’s Andrew Whitfield and Costas Chari. Between them they have finished in the top 35k overall rank 6 times in the last 6 seasons.
fantasy Premier League Team tips – 2 more FFGeek Contributors Teams
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Introduction
Here’s a few very early drafts to give you some ideas for your FPL teams. They will change prior to the GW1 deadline of August 5 although there will be updated versions before then.
Andrew Whitfield
Andrew’s last 5 seasons overall ranks were 119k, 34k, 132k, 6k and 19k
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Well here we go again !! I am sure the gaps between seasons are getting shorter. Or maybe it’s just me getting older. Last season was an exhausting and mentally draining one for many FPL managers with a big helping of Covid inspired blank and double gameweeks causing chaos in the calendar. I for one was definitely ready for the break.
But we are back again for what promises to be another eventful and unique season with a six week break for the World Cup smack bang in the middle of the season. Throw in the introduction of five substitutes and the repercussions that brings to FPL. And if that’s not enough then we have some high profile transfers and some big new shiny expensive toys coming to the premier league giving us some tough premium player choices.
In this my first article of the season, I will be firstly taking a reflective look back on last season, before putting my initial thoughts together on what lies ahead over the new season, which will be upon us before we know it.
Some self reflection:
Last season wasn’t a vintage one for me, finishing outside the top 100k. Of course, finishing just outside the top 1% of teams worldwide is not to be sniffed at. But in the context of highly engaged managers, it’s a bare minimum. Those rank achievements and the holy grail of the top 10k are getting tougher each year with the explosion of FPL content readily available to assist the less engaged managers and the controversial copying of top managers teams becoming more prevalent.
As an FPL contributor and content provider, there is an added pressure to justify your existence, so to finish outside the top 100k for two years in three seasons does bring that self reflection, but on the flip side, I have three top 0.5% finishes in the last five seasons including a 6k and 19k, so I think there is a bit of credit in the tank just yet. The regular messages I receive also provide huge encouragement to know that my articles are helping people every week enjoy FPL more and improve their own games which is what this is all about.
I am quietly excited about next season having had that all important break from content creation and daily FPL discussion. The World Cup creating a six week break might be a good thing in many ways for managers who play the game with a full on intensity, especially as we can enjoy some top tournament action along the way. I won’t be playing a World Cup version of the game, that’s for sure. Fasten your seatbelts for a game of two halves.
Let’s put last season to bed :
I have a very defined way of playing the game which perhaps was not ideally conducive to how last season played out. I stay pretty close to the popular template of engaged managers and I am a patient manager who likes to plan ahead with fixtures. During spells last season, that all seemed to go flying out of the window as Covid postponements meant the priority was often fighting fires to just simply put eleven players on the pitch, to the exclusion of fixtures planning and aligning myself to the template, even taking out players from covid hit teams that had just strategically been brought in.
I did actually make a textbook start and didn’t do much wrong at all in hitting the top 30k by GW12. But soon after, the Covid chaos kicked in, and my natural game was blown off its course. I used one of the two free hits that were provided during a week when I had just six starters, with minimal gain, and my early second wildcard backfired, meaning I was always one or two chips down against the pack, which ultimately proved costly.
A 74 point triple captain still brought a red arrow and a mix of bad luck and bad decisions and the success of many later wildcards had me back at 226k by GW29 and struggling to align myself to my engaged manager template.
I did however then have a delicious run of six green arrows when everything I touched seemed to turn to gold, to hit 71k and optimism was high for a strong finish, before three disappointing closing red arrows including on bench boost dropped me from 70k to 119k as my optimism was quashed by a combination of those late chips, a costly captain choice and a few cruel twists, and my season ended under a big black cloud
Whilst it was a unique season, I have taken a few lessons onboard. I took a lot more hits than normal, although most managers did too. The aggressive approach seemed to work during the blanks and doubles for a lot of managers. So I jumped onboard. I was surprised that my hits taken was on the high side of average. In truth, I probably got into the -4 habit when it wasn’t needed and that’s not my natural game. Having said that, I did have some degree of success so it’s opened my eyes to a bolder approach.
The timing of my chips proved costly. I want to be more patient with my chips this season. The bench boost once again proved a poisoned chalice in spending too many points preparing for it. Ideally I want to play it immediately after my late wildcard next season.
The chaos of the many blanks and doubles arguably played right into the hands of the more informed and engaged managers. It was the same for everyone of course. The reality is, the bottom line says I didn’t handle the chaos as well as many others did.
So what does next season have in store:
It remains to be seen if Covid will rear its ugly head again as it’s certainly not going away. It’s bubbling away under the radar. Last season we had a softer approach to postponements which meant games were chaotically and readily called off and even though individual players were Covid free, they were wiped from our weekends if their colleagues illnesses resulted in multiple games being lost for their team.
I still think we will see plenty of Covid absences, but due to a tougher stance, individuals will miss games, but teams won’t so I expect less disruption and chaos.
There is every chance that we might not get a blank or double gameweek until as late as GW25. Unthinkable after we seemed to have a blank or double every week at times last season. If that’s the case, then I will rejoice in a less stressful season. Bring it on.
The implementation of five substitutes, as well as less Covid disruption, could mean that our FPL benches might be called upon less, as players who would normally miss out altogether and be replaced with autosubs, could get one point cameos instead. I expect a lot of frustrating sub offs before the 60 minute mark which in the case of defenders could be a costly twist. Having said that, we might benefit from a few clean sheets too if defenders get to the magic 60 minutes and then depart.
One thing that I have taken from last season is the obvious success of models that focus on data driven decisions. “Expected goals and assists” in particular. This will be more to the fore to supplement my fixtures based planning. The “Xg merchants” seem to be getting their rewards.
There has also been a lot of success with “ Transfer Planner and Points Projection” models too. None more so than Joes Transfer Planner and Points Projection Tool on the Fantasy Football Geek Patreon site. The FPL team Joe’s model ran finished with an astounding 3k Overall Rank last season. That does tie in closely with fixtures planning but it will fit more closely into my own game. I will be locking into a few projected points planners more closely this season.
Of course, transfer planners are ruthlessly fearless in that they completely disregard ownership and templates, so in that respect, I do need to tailor it to my own game. I tend to always make sure I own players above my defined ownership levels amongst a lot of elite and trusted managers that I follow closely.
Welcome to the new season:
So on to the new season !! The game is already “live” and managers are already tinkering with their initial drafts, which I am sure will change massively before the season kicks off on 6 August.
I have two initial drafts at the end of this article but it’s very early days. I will be chopping and changing over the next few weeks like everyone else.
There were a few surprises when player prices were released. Many popular players have been valued below expectations, which makes putting a strong team together easy enough, but at the same time that creates challenges too with such a rich choice of attractive picks.
As expected, we have “unlimited transfers” immediately after the six week World Cup break, effectively an extra wildcard. So we have a very distinct six week break and the season is split down the middle with us all starting with a clean slate and a post World Cup wildcard.
There is unusually only one international break before the year end, so there is a strong possibility that I will play my first wildcard during this period after GW8, thereby also splitting the first half of the season into a further two halves. Any initial planning is therefore likely to be focussed on the first eight weeks.
There will be a temptation to jump on an even earlier wildcard too to quickly capture the break out bargains and boost team value. There is a danger though that we don’t have enough reliable sample size data to take this route. I currently prefer the luxury of wildcarding during an extended international break with more information.
Things to consider and players to consider in GW1:
The blue chip signing of Erling Haaland has shaken up the premium market. It’s going to be tough to go for a three premium approach at the outset while team value is at its minimum. It’s possible but going with three premiums so early means sacrifices. So which two of Salah, Haaland, Kane / Son , or De Bruyne do you prefer ? As always there is no right or wrong answer. Don’t let anyone kid you otherwise. Nobody knows.
I generally prefer tried and trusted players at the start. So many players have failed to make the immediate adjustment. Which would edge me towards Salah plus one of the deadly Spurs duo. However, Haaland arrives with a big reputation and he is the most highly owned player in the game. I am currently leaning towards Salah and Haaland for a bit of rank protection. Salah dropped away after Afcon last season but his opening day record is immense and he plays Fulham first. It takes a brave man to look either Mo or Haaland in the eye in week one when they are both around 60% owned plus captaincy.
Spurs have great opening fixtures so I think I just need to book a round of golf every time they play. I can certainly understand playing around with those three premium FPL teams.
It’s notable how much incredible value the premium defenders offer. Alexander Arnold, Robertson, Cancelo, James, Chilwell are all cheat codes for points at both ends of the field. It’s perfectly viable to take all five. Let’s face it they are attacking mids with clean sheets thrown in. Overloading on these players however does mean a more patched up attack.
The defenders further down the price list also offer extreme value. There are players like Trippier and Cash at 5M and an unusually high number of 4.5M bargains too like Tomiyasu, White, Dunk, Jonny, Coufal and Justin that enable funds to be ploughed into attack.
There is a whole log jam of mids around the 8M mark – Foden, Mahrez, Maddison, Saka, Kulusevski and Diaz are pretty hard to split. If you leave yourself a couple of players in this “price point” it certainly helps in moving between them. Personally I think Luiz Diaz is the severely undervalued player, almost a Mane at a fraction of the cost, which means choosing between Robertson and Diaz is a tough one !!
Watch out for Marcus Rashford if Ronaldo was to leave Man Utd. He is insane value after a 3M price drop.
With those price points in mind, I like having an 8M or 7M striker alongside Haaland. The likes of Jesus, Toney, Antonio, Wilson and Watkins are pretty tough to reach if you get stuck with two striking “cheapies”.
By owning the most expensive player in each position, it allows you to come down in just one move. Flexibility certainly helps.
Keeper prices are cheap too. It’s very tempting to stretch to the likes of Allison, Lloris, Mendy and Ederson and cover the premium defences at a bargain price. Lots of teasing dilemnas for sure .
How to follow my team this season:
I have two drafts below which I am sure will change many times before we kick off.
The good news is that my detailed articles will still be appearing on the free fantasy geek website every week, where I will be sharing my teams performance, and providing lots of talking points and possible transfer options which hopefully will help with your FPL planning. I receive regular messages of support and these articles will still be available.
The further good news is that if you want to specifically track my own team more precisely, you can now do so with live alerts every time I make a transfer and when I lock in my final team, as part of the fantasy football geek patreon option, for less than the cost of a bar of chocolate once a week. After this article my team transfers and lineups will only be on the Patreon site although as I said my detailed FPL commentary and discussion in these articles will stay on the free site.
You can also follow me on Twitter. My final team will only be released now on Twitter after the deadline this season but my weekly articles will still be there and I am going to be also providing free regular videos there too to supplement my articles.
FPL is a hobby. Putting my articles together means a huge investment of time and effort. The changes allow me to be compensated for that and for geek patreon readers to receive live updated transfer alerts from me as well as five other contributors.
So what about my latest drafts:
I usually start safe and steady. I cover the template of most highly owned players. I don’t take risks early on. You can’t win FPL in week one but you can sure as hell lose it. My first draft reflects that as it’s packed with popular picks. It covers all the premium defences and has Salah and Haaland at the heart of it
My second draft is bringing in to play Robertson instead of Luiz Diaz. This gives me an extra 1M which I can use for a stronger first sub, and have a premium keeper and brings in Cash instead of Perisic. I can also reduce Cash to a 4.5M defender and have Ederson in goal instead of Mendy. There are lots of variations of course
And finally:
Good luck to everyone in the quest for a successful season. May most of your arrows be green. Enjoy the game, accept there will be pain and pleasure in equal measures along the way but remember it’s just a game. Look after your health too and your family and loved ones. Don’t lose sight of what’s truly important.
I look forward to providing regular articles during the season. Yes I would love a top 10k finish, I would take a top 30k finish right now. But if I help other people in some small way each week, then it will all be worth it.
Stay safe 😉
Costas Chari
Costas has 3 top 30k finishes in the last 6 seasons
FPL under way finally!
After a much needed break here we go again, the past two season have been bad for me so lets see if I can have a good rank this year. Mixed emotions when the prices came out and some weird stuff in my opinion such as rashford taking a 3.0mil drop and bowen although fantastic last season getting a big bump in price and is not more than diaz, mount foden,
First thing that amazed me was Luiz Diaz being a whole 5mil cheaper than Salah but ill get into this in detail later on. It is clear that with the pricing there is a need to go big at the back! If you compare 6.0-7.5 attackers and midfielders to the likes of james, chilwell, cancel, taa, robbo there really isn’t even a contest! So value at the back and….. IN ATTACK finally!
Before analyzing my team I have to state that the bench is awful. Reason is the 5 subs. Unless a player in my team team has covid I doubt they will sit out the whole game so a weak bench is the way to go in my opinion with just one playing player there and the rest for the money allocated I the starting 11. A GW1 team should be flexible and should include priced players that will allow you to move around.
Here’s the team
Goalkeeper
Pricing mendy at 5.0 is a gift! I saw a lot of drafts with Raya or Meslier and don’t believe that someone, unless they needed the extra 0.5 for a premium, would go one of these guys instead of Mendy. A cheap 4.0 fodder will sit my bench. There is a chance I go Ederson but of course plenty of time to decide.
Defenders
Going big at the back with Alexander-Arnold, Robertson, Cancelo, James who could be Chilwell and Tomiyasu. All of these players have great fixtures great attacking threat and a good schedule to start the season. Tomiyasu is a great cheap cover for the Arsenal defence. I haven’t gone for a Spurs wing back as there are 7! And Conte tends to sub them early.
Midfield
A whole 5 mil cheaper than Salah for a player that posted similar stats to Salah when he played is a no brainer for me. I think especially with Mane out of the picture Diaz is secured to start and might be the most underpriced player in the game. Also Liverpool buying a new CF will see Diaz start the season until the new guy gets used to the team and I believe there will be a change in the system to facilitate the new striker and so not all chances will fall into Salah.
If you think that, we have an extra wildcard then I am willing to risk starting without Salah and if things don’t go right I can quickly switch! So Luis Diaz for now! The extra 5 mil allows me to have Son Heung Min as well. He obviously needs no introduction. Top scorer of the league the last 2 seasons without pens playing with a coach and system that suits him. Can’t believe he’s not more highly owned.
Martinelli. With those fixtures and having in mind he is the favourite left sided winger in the team I am taking the chance with him. Vieira and Saka are predominately right sided. Odegaard is not a wingers, nor is Nketiah. Arteta seemed to prefer him to Smith Rowe so clearly so I’m with him. If he bangs great, if not I can always downgrade to the 5.0-5.5 player that will emerge. I see a lot of drafts with Neto…. Lets say neto bangs. Having Martinelli allows you to downgrade to Neto but if the opposite happens and Martinelli gets a price rise where is everyone going to find the 0.6-0.7 extra?
Pereira of Fulham at £4.5m getting a move and probably starting and Colback are my two benched players from midfield
Forwards
Haaland will be Aguero 2.0 in my opinion- enough said. Moving on… JESUS what a bargain at £8.0m with that schedule and having Odegaard, Saka and Martinelli “feeding him”. Sam Greenwood as a bench player.
So there’s the team for now 5-3-2! Could be switched to a 5-2-3 if I need an extra 0.5 (Son to Kane).
stay tuned!
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