Here’s our fantasy premier league teams GW12 article where we give our early thoughts on the FFGeek team for GW12. We look back at gameweek 11, The monitor list, transfer thoughts plus early captain thinking.
fantasy premier league teams GW12 – some early thoughts on the FFGeek team
Here’s my GW11 team selection article btw if you’re interested
GW11 points: 60 (average 52) Total points 711, Gameweek rank 1,768k, Overall Rank: 39k, red arrow 10k, Team Value: £102.3m
Here’s the points:
So a gameweek that was all about Richarlison and Arnautovic in reality as long as you didn’t deviate from the overwhelming captain favourite in Aguero. I brought in Arnautovic for the gameweek but didn’t have Richarlison and paid the price with a 10k red arrow. Not disastrous but lost ground as most FPL managers had Richarlison.
So if I look at my basic metrics for a gameweek then I’m off the pace. A gameweek rank just about 1.7m compared to 1 million as a target. 4 returners which is the minimum you’d hope for. 2 double figures which was something. Lastly a red arrow to 39k which is definitely not welcome. I had no Foster or Lacazette to bail me out like I have had in previous weeks. Mitrovic was my bailout which came to nothing.
The lack of Chelsea and Man City clean sheets were very painful in addition given they should have been nailed on.
Some random thoughts
So those of you who read my 10 top managers articles (coming today) know that I use the 10 managers teams and the top 10k stats from FPL discovery.com for 2 things:
Firstly, if 7/10 or 70% of the top managers have a player then I will generally transfer him in as he will become a ranking risk
Secondly, I use the stats as a proxy for what active (obsessed?) FPL managers are doing on the assumption that these managers will eventually populate the top 50k or so
So if you take someone like Raheem Sterling who is owned by 7% of the overall managers, and 6% of the top 10k going into GW11 and none of the 10 top FPL managers, then his 21 points doesn’t affect you negatively. If you did own him though, however, you should get a huge points boost depending on other factors in your team. However Richarlison who is owned by 52% of the top 10k and 7 of the 10 top FPL managers I follow, not to mention the top 6 managers above me in the FFGeek contributors league then his 15 points are definitely going to hurt.
Neutralise the risk around the popular players and make ground around the margins. The issue becomes when you get boxed in by the template and find ground hard to make. However you just have to be patient. 50/50 captain choices and defence will always be areas to attack.
One of the FFGeek contributors, Keith Spencer is an example of someone who doesn’t follow this mantra and has a much more fixture based strategy and I expect wouldn’t know FPL discovery if it hit him in the face. He’s incredibly successful, finishing the last 3 seasons in the top 10k and Joe, Rob and I regularly just go wow every week when we see what he’s done as he’s often very bold. He does suffer alot of rank volatility though although it doesn’t seem to faze him or make him any less bold. Saying that even his team at the moment is fairly template. You can see it in the part 3 contributors article.
The team planning schedule
1 free transfer and £1.7m in the bank
Here’s the team planning schedule. I think it’s fairly self explanatory
So Mitrovic away to Liverpool is the priority transfer. Away to Liverpool is a great exit point. It’s been 5 games with just 1 assist and his underlying stats have fallen away. He’s still shooting alot but not quality shots. Fulhams fixtures could also be better with only the Southampton game looking a decent one in the short term.
Man Utd (A)
West Ham (H)
I’ve mentioned Ings and Jimenez in the schedule as transfer options which I’ll talk about below. Vardy would be a positive move but difficult given his price.
I don’t have an option for Fraser at the moment. There is Barkley but his blank and 63 minutes plus zero underlying stats and 1 shot and no key passes needs some monitoring to say the least. Other than that no one stands out at that price point. I’m not sure about £6.4m Pereyra. He’s a pretty inconsistent returner and his underlying stats are overall pretty terrible. £6.4m Lamela is a player I really like but what happens when Eriksen and Son return.
So of the other monitor players I’ve got Foster who is really more of a proactive transfer but Fabianski with his fixtures when I get the chance. the 2 goals v Burnley was disturbing but they did only allow 6 shots so not to be discarded yet.
Lastly there’s Hojbjerg upgraded to Murphy for not much additional cost which seems a nice to have transfer for the bench.
As I said So at the moment I’m thinking of downgrading Mitrovic to either Ings or Jimenez. That would give me the funds to upgrade Ward to Richarlison in GW13 it also gives me some flexibility with 4 midfielders instead of 3.
Richarlison has now entered the territory of 7 of the 10 top FPL managers I follow owning him so that triigers me thinking about whether I should be buying him or not. I could upgrade Fraser to Richarlison but I would rather strengthen the midfield overall and while Richarlison is away to Chelsea this week it seems an ok time to defer it
Here’s a basic stats comparison between the 2:
Lets look at the next 6 fixtures:
Man Utd (H)
As usual there’s no clear cut answer and the 50/50 dice throw comes into play again. Jimenez is in a better team, has the better returns and consistency and fixtures although Arsenal next. Ings has better minutes, penalties and underlying stats plus more immediate fixtures
Hmm my inclination is towards Ings but I’ve got all week to mull over it and come up with any other thoughts. It would mean a striker against my GK which isn’t helpful.
You can plan all you want but most of the time you will be doing reactive transfers due to injuries and players being dropped rather than pro-active ones
So in summary at the moment I expect Mitrovic out to Ings or Jimenez to raise cash for Ward out to Richarlison but that is a fluid situation.
Hard to go past Salah this week given the fixture. I’ll put the poll up again after the European games and Friday press conferences as that seems to be the best way to get an accurate picture of what people are doing.
Not an easy one this week it’s between Wan Bissaka and Doherty although Hojbjerg could also start as an alternative. My faith in Palace wasn’t needed but not fulfilled against Chelsea but I just can’t see a Wolves clean sheet against Arsenal and there seems little upside in playing Hojbjerg. If I get a hint that Ward may start I might up him but he seems more likely to repeat the 11 minutes as a sub that he did v Leicester. Another one to cogitate
Here’s the lineup. Assume Mitrovic is transferred out
That’s it hope you had a good gameweek
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