fantasy premier league teams GW30 – some early thoughts on the FFGeek team – UPDATED for end of GW29

Here’s our fantasy premier league teams GW30 article where I give my early thoughts on the FFGeek team for GW30. I look at gameweek 29 so far and give my thoughts on the gameweek ahead including potential transfers and captain choice.  I’ve updated my final GW29 score

fantasy premier league teams GW30 – some early thoughts on the FFGeek team – UPDATED for end of GW29

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Introduction

I’ve just updated my final GW29 score and points.

Firstly if you’re new to the site my last 3 seasons overall ranks are 36k, 17k and 21k.

This was written after the Leicester v Aston Villa game but before the Man City v Arsenal game

Gameweek 29 review 

GW29 points: 82  (FPL average 45) Total points 1,693 Gameweek rank 104k, Overall Rank: 31k, green arrow 38k, Team Value: £102.9m

Here’s the points:

So a fairly unexpected 82 this week thanks mainly to the 2 Leicester players and the shambles that is the Villa defence.  Villa’s £100m spent is starting to look like Fulhams £100m spent.

6 returning players and 3 double figure point hauls as well as getting the captain call right with Salah so good fortune has been with me so far this week.

Not going for Aubameyang was a tough call and a real 50/50.  It was obviously helped out by the postponement of the Man City v Arsenal game.   Normally I would protect myself from a captain favourite and especially one in a double gameweek.  I think the Captain stats and the Arsenal stats in my captain analysis article helped as well as the number of FFGeek contributors who also stuck with Salah made me not make the Aubameyang transfer.  I also hate taking players out before a good fixture so I didn’t really have a transfer option with Vardy v Villa and Firmino v Bournemouth.

If you’re a regular podcast listener you’ll remember that we did an rate my team podcast a couple of weeks ago where I was suggesting Harvey Barnes quite repetitively.  I was feeling pretty sheepish about it after the Leicester blank v Norwich although Barnes did have 4 shots and 2 key passes in that game.  Obviously I never expected the 19 points this week and it was a pleasant surprise.  Since I’ve changed how I do my midfield and forward player rankings articles  I’ve found it easier to pick the difference makers for my team.  The underlying stats over 3 periods are turned into theoretical FPL points and then there’s the fixture ease ranking and other information to help make a choice.  It’s become more interpretative which I know won’t suit some but I’ve found it easier to identify who I want in my team.

The other attacking players

Blanks from Firmino and Calvert Lewin.  A no show from De Bruyne and a sub blank from Mahrez.

Starting with Firmino.  The guy has to be on the verge of a goal explosion at anytime.  Since his last goal he’s racked up 4.39 in xG and if you ignore the negative legend that is McGoldrick he’s miles ahead of anyone else in being behind his xG.  He’s scored 8.  He should have scored 15.  The next, apart from McGoldrick, is Jota and Jesus who are behind by 4 goals.  Firmino has a mixed history of over and under performing xG.  For the moment I have to stick with him.  How he didn’t score v Bournemouth with 2 great chances is beyond me.

Calvert Lewin has terrible fixtures and a blank GW31 but should have scored v Chelsea and is good form.  He’s a natural sacrifice option though with the fixtures.

Mahrez and De Bruyne.  Alot does depend on their upcoming GW29 game but the dilemma is obviously not wanting to take them out when they play Burnley at home next but knowing that the team lineup could be anything with the Madrid 2nd leg midweek.

The defensive players

A wonder performance and penalty save from McCarthy was certainly unexpected and helped ease those multitude of lost Pope points.

Clean sheets from Wolves and Leicester and certainly Leicester having Ndidi back to screen the defence gives me far more confidence in it.

Should have been a Liverpool clean sheet.  How was that Wilson foul on Gomez not given?

My FPL team structure

Again apologies to regular readers for the definition preamble.

If it’s the first time you’ve seen it here’s how I classify each player in my FPL team:

Template player: 7 of the 10 top FPL managers I follow have him in their team. I use the 10 managers as a proxy for serious FPL managers who will finish in the top 100k or so. People have different interpretations of what is an FPL template. There’s no true definition though.

Template replacement player: the player you choose to go head to head against a template player with.

Bench player: A player who will for the most part be on your bench. Sometimes there are bench rotaters but I won’t muddy the waters

Difference maker: these are the rest and the players who can move you forward or back. I don’t call them differentials as this implies an ownership threshold which I don’t use

Here’s my squad using these categories:

Blank GW31.  Doubles GW34 and GW37

Gameweek 31 clashes with the FA Cup 6th round. Teams playing in those 6th round games will have their fixtures postponed. 4 fixtures have survived.

GW34 and GW37 will house the postponed games although depending on how they allocate fixtures GW34 could also have some blanks.  See my scenario planning article for the doubles to give a practical perspective.

At the moment for the blank GW31 I have Boly, Alexander Arnold, Salah and Firmino.  Rico also has a fixture but seems to have lost his place.  That means the maximum players I can have for GW31 is 6 with 2 free transfers to use.  Given that I can’t see any alternative other than using my free hit for GW31.

Given that the rest of my chip usage will be either to Wildcard GW33 and bench boost GW34 or wildcard GW36 and bench boost GW37.  If GW34 is particularly problematic then I could wildcard GW34 and use my bench boost GW37.

I think the main dilemma is that on the face of it GW34 looks to be a smaller double gameweek due to the ability to move postponed fixtures into midweek but GW37 is likely to see more rotation being at near season end also negating to some extent the use of the bench boost.

The unknown is that the postponed games could go anywhere for TV purposes which means even with scenario planning there is still a big unknown element

Transfer thoughts

1 free transfer and £0.3m in the bank.

If I’m going to free hit then I need to use a transfer this week as the carry over would be lost.

I’m struggling with the idea of who to transfer in.   I was thinking of Calvert Lewin out and Giroud in but incredibly I’m £0.1m short as I ‘ve owned Calvert Lewin for a while.  The other option I had thought of was a Sheffield United defender for Holgate or Rico.  I can afford Egan or Basham for either of those 2.  I’d prefer a home game for Sheffield but away to Newcastle is still a good fixture.

It maybe that De Bruyne is telegraphed as not to play so with a blank in GW31 he could be the transfer?

The final game of the gameweek may help the decision

Apart from that, I need to do alot more work.  It will be someone from the postponed games who has a double further down the line I suspect.

 Captain

I think it will be Salah but the polls will again be interesting.  Vice is trickier.

Lineup issues

If I don’t do the defensive transfer then the lineup is easy.  If I don’t it becomes trickier but I imagine the Pep lineup will bail me out anyway.

Here’s a lineup pre any transfers

I hope you are had a  good gameweek.

Other posts

GW30 fixture ease

Analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers

Bandwagons and sinking ships

The FFGeek podcast

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