fantasy premier league teams GW5 – early thoughts on the FFGeek team


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Here’s our fantasy premier league teams GW5 article where we outline our early thoughts on the FFGeek team for GW5.  We review GW4 and talk about potential transfers, captains and lineups for GW5

fantasy premier league teams GW5 – early thoughts on the FFGeek team

I outline my FPL strategy along with 10 other FFGeek contributors in our new EBook.

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Introduction

Firstly if you’re new to the site my last 4 seasons overall ranks are 17k, 36k, 17k and 21k.

GW4

GW4 points: 48 (FPL average 43) Total points 214, Overall Rank: 1,829k, red arrow  221k Team Value: £99.4m

I haven’t used any chips yet

Here’s the points:




fantasy premier league teams GW5

So overall a disappointing gameweek with 48 points meaning a 221k red arrow seeing a 1.8 million overall rank from 214 total points.  The success or not this week was down to the wrong captain choice.  4 returners is a typical week to be honest for most FPL managers but the captain fail was the key negative.

2 additional problems are the lack of bench with Reed injured and  Saliba not even in the match day squad.  That means I have effectively 1 bench player in Soucek.  I don’t feel the need for 3 but 2 would be handy. The other problem is my team value plummeting to £99.4m.  Now I’ve never been the greatest believer in the correlation between team value and overall rank but there’s not being the greatest believer and £99.4m!  I just have to hope my team performance turns around to turn around the value over time.

How the FFGeek team players are doing so far

Slightly different this week.

Here are 2 schedules which compare them this seasons so far average to last season overall average.  It’s obviously only 3 or 4 games depending on the team or player this season so you cant say anything definitive but it does give you a feeling of their positions so far.  I then go through each player with a couple of sentences

The attacking players compare their average minutes, their expected goals and assists and also their shots and key passes.

The defensive players compare the teams expected goals against, as well as shots against plus the same attacking stats as the attacking players.

It will be hard to read on a phone so here’s the link to the google spreadsheet

FFGeek team attackers analysed

Overall if you can’t be bothered reading.  Soucek and Antonio are the positives.  Everyone else has some negatives compared to last season.  Repeat,  it is early though.




fantasy premier league teams GW5

Salah

2 penalties have meant Salah’s xG is on track from last season but strip out the penalties and hes massively behind.  0.36 xG90 this season vs o.57 in 19/20.  Liverpool still top in xG per game though which is positive

De Bruyne

It’s only 3 games for De Bruyne but while he’s on track with his non penalty xG he’s miles behind in his xA.  xG90 0.36 vs 0.66 last season.  Alot of volume there though so all is not lost yet.  Man City’s xG per game though is horrendous compared to last season.

Ward Prowse

Even when you strip out the penalties he had last season he’s miles behind last season

Soucek

A big improver and actually putting up really good numbers especially considering the opposition.  xG90 of 0.36 is good for most midfielders especially one that costs £4.9m. Exceptionally good volumes as well.

Mitrovic

Well behind on his NPxG90 vs his overall 18/19 season and when you consider the opposition hasn’t been that bad it’s disappointing.  Volumes are good still.

 Antonio

On track with his amazing shooting stats of last season even if behind in his assist based stats.  Considering the tough fixtures that’s exceptional

Jimenez

On track with ok shooting stats from last season but assists based stats are crucial to his FPL points and they are poor so far.  Good fixtures ahead may help that.

FFGeek team defensive players analysed

Southampton and Everton have been very good defensively albeit off mainly good fixtures.  Wolves and Liverpool somewhat behind last season.  Attacking numbers from the 3 Liverpool and Wolves players haven’t been that different with Robertson increasing his goal threat.



McCarthy

Southampton’s defensive start has been remarkable especially compared to last season.  That’s apart from the Spurs game.  However the other 3 games were against WBA, Palace and Burnley so need to bear that in mind.

Saiss

He has scored and his attacking stats are pretty close to last season’s impressive numbers but Wolves got the expected clean sheets vs Sheffield and Fulham but were disastrious defensively v West Ham and Man City.  That put’s them in a poor comparison to last season.

Alexander Arnold

Unsurprisingly Liverpools xGA are 30% worse than last seasons but that was skewed by the Villa game.  How you view them defensively probably depends on how you view that game.  His attacking numbers aren’t up to last season but not by huge numbers.

Robertson

As per Liverpool team comments above.  Putting in some exceptional xG numbers although without really a huge volume improvement.  A little down on the assist type underlying stats

Digne

Everton may have had the fixtures (Spurs apart) but they are top ranked in terms of xG against and the improvement from last season is incredible.

Transfer thoughts

Team value £99.4m  £1.1m in the bank

My thought has always been to replace Ward Prowse with Foden.  However while he’s started 3 games and played 90 minutes in 2 he’s been poor in 2 games and good vs Wolves.  Also City have not been anything like the attacking team of last season.  So the dilemma is do I trust last season or 3 games of this season?  At the moment I’m undecided.  He isn’t playing over the International Break though which is a positive.

In terms of getting in the current form assets of Son or Calvert Lewin in it’s not easy and both would involve a point deduction.  Son would involve the sale of Jimenez and Ward Prowse with a -4 to fund it.  After just putting Jimenez in that doesn’t sit well.  If he becomes a huge captain favourite this week that becomes an option.

Another current form and potential captain favourite of Kane would likely involve the sale of De Bruyne and a -4 which seems a big step.

So at the moment I’m undecided

Wildcard?

I normally like 10 games of data before I wildcard to feel like any player choices have sound logic to them.  I feel 4 games is too early.

I also have this big problem of do you just ignore last season and go purely on 4 games of this season and how do you balance that out.  Kane was not great last season, Calbert Lewin was good but fell away badly.  Son was good though and is a consistent.

So at the moment I’m going to ride it out.

Lineup issues

Not easy this week.  Digne has Liverpool (H), Saiss has Leeds (A), Ward Prowse if stays has Chelsea (A)  and Soucek Spurs (A)

At the moment I’ve put Ward Prowse on the bench but if he’s Foden then the decision becomes trickier.

Captain

There is no great captain option at the moment for my team so I’ve gone for Salah.  The polls will be food for thought

Here’s the lineup as of now

fantasy premier league teams GW5

Other posts

Analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers

Costas Chari activates his wildcard

Joseph Crilley and Kris O hit the wildcard button

FFGeek Contributors GW5 teams Part 1

The FFGeek GW5 Podcast

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4 thoughts on “fantasy premier league teams GW5 – early thoughts on the FFGeek team”

  1. Hey geek, wonderful article as usual. Quick question, will you be covering the Fantasy UCL as well? It starts in 9 days. It would be nice if you or somebody made small articles on that as well. Thanks.

    Reply

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