fantasy premier league teams GW9 – some early thoughts on the FFGeek team


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Here’s our fantasy premier league teams GW9 article where we give our early thoughts on the FFGeek team for GW9. We look back at gameweek 8 and give our thoughts on the gameweek ahead including potential transfers and captain choice.

fantasy premier league teams GW9 – some early thoughts on the FFGeek team

Firstly if you’re new to the site my last 3 seasons overall ranks are 36k, 17k and 21k

Gameweek 8

GW8 points: 32 (FPL average 36) Total points 438, Gameweek rank 4,560k, Overall Rank: 804k, red arrow 214k, Team Value: £101.2m

Here’s the points:




fantasy premier league teams GW9

So a pretty disastrous gameweek going back a massive 214k OR for an 804k overall rank.  I have to remind myself that OR is pretty misleading at this stage.  As I said in my 10 top FPL managers article their OR spread is 170k to 1,061k.  That’s pretty much 900k difference in OR but only 35 points difference.  Every single point is roughly 25k OR.  So I’m not panicking yet.

A bit of a deep dive on my team 

The Liverpool defence

Nothing hurt this weekend more than losing the double Liverpool clean sheet.  An xG against of 0.10 and only conceding 2 shots should be a nailed on clean sheet but an Adrian error for a pretty tame Maddison shot killed that in the 80th minute.

Liverpool are 2nd in xG conceded and 4th on shots per game against.  They’ve averaged less that 1 goal per game against in xG and in 4 games have got less than 1 goal xG against.  Alisson coming back soon should be a massive boost as his ability off the line should help mitigate the damage being done currently by the high line defence and the fullbacks being pushed up so far.

The worry though is how far the defence is behind last season.  19/20 xGA per game 0.93 18/19 0.77.  19/20 shots per game against 9.6.   18/19 8.1

Then there’s the fixtures.  The next 5 aren’t great

GW9 MUN (A)
GW10 TOT (H)
GW11 AVL (A)
GW12 MCI (H)
GW13 CRY (A)

From an attacking point of view both Alexander Arnold and Robertson are holding up against last seasons underlying stats which is positive.

At the moment I’m still intending to hold and hope Alisson proves the difference.  He was last seasons top save % GK and is a great sweeper keeper.

Man City defence 

Hopefully Stones is back after the International Break which more importantly will hopefully mean that Fernadinho can get back to CDM and start fouling everything that moves before they can get anywhere near the CBs.  Rodri just isn’t doing it.  City wouldn’t be in the Laportless mess they are now if Rodri had not dilly dallied when Trossard (I think it was) broke the press and left Laporte to foul him incurring the injury he has.

I’m still worried though after the shambolic nature of the last 2 games and my thinking that possession alone would do the job has been completely wrong.

Pope, Tomori, Soyuncu and Cantwell

All seem good value and not worried about any of them.  The possible problems with Norwich though could mean Cantwell becomes bench only meaning I end up with a 5 man defence every game which is not where I want to be

Salah

Salah v Leicester was 5 shots 3 key passes and an xG of 0.95 and an xA of 0.21 vs Leicester.  Nothing wrong with that except the blank that followed.

Here’s his 19/20 comparison vs 18/19.  xG 0.64 vs 0.60 and 0.18 vs 0.29 so he is worse off.  Shots and key pass wise it’s 3.3 vs 3.6 and 2.0 vs 1.8.  So not too different.

Again the fixtures coming up aren’t helpful and will probably remove him as a captain option.  As a non captain option he’s pretty questionable given the price.

Still needs to be confirmed as fit.

Sterling and De Bruyne

It was a very disappointing game v Wolves for Sterling.  His underlying stats are better than last season though for xG/xA and shots per game.  He is susceptible to the odd stinker though.  The question is whether De Bruyne can be your City captain which again questions Sterling as a non captain option.  De Bruyne, hopefully fit, is playing out of his mind and although shot volumes are the similar to last season they are way better quality and for me he is a definite captain option which I really didn’t think was the case coming into the season.  However I didn’t think he would double his historic xG average.

Abraham

Only Aguero has a better xG90 than Abraham.  Going now where (except to the subs bench every 76 minutes which is the only negative)

Pukki, Dendoncker and Greenwood

The low shot counts and xG for Pukki are getting more and more familiar so he’s the only player I unequivocally could see going out of my team apart from the bench of Dendoncker and Greenwood.

So what does the deep dive tell me

So as the saying goes the deeper you dive the murkier the water becomes.  I don’t know if that actually is a saying but it sounded good anyway.

On the above I could make a case for wildcarding or I could make a case for rolling over the free transfer depending on how I wanted to interpret the stats.  This week Wilson or Mount due to fixtures would be attractive but they aren’t feasible without a -4 to get just the 1 in which isn’t attractive to me.

The last 2 times I’ve wildcarded I did it on a Friday as I couldn’t decide whether to do it or not.  This feels similar but if I had to bet on what I was going to do I think it will be to carry the free and see where that gets me next week.

Transfer thoughts

1 free transfer and £0.4m in the bank

I think I covered this above so probably carrying over the free transfer but don’t rule out a Friday night (and I don’t mean tomorrow) wildcard.

Captain thoughts

At the moment I’m looking at Sterling at Crystal Palace although that could be a low scoring game so Abraham vs Newcastle also looks an option.  The captain poll will be interesting although I will do this later next week.

The team pre any transfers




fantasy premier league teams GW9

So you can see the 5 man backline where 2 have no attacking potential which isn’t ideal.  I’m reluctant to double up on Norwich even with the fixture.

More to think about.

That’s it. Hope you had a good gameweek.

Other posts

You can also see Rob Reid’s wildcard article as well as Keith and Costas’s , also Kris O’s wildcard drafts and Ben and Kev’s wildcard drafts

Also Rick Porters cutting through the FPL noise

Analysing 10 top FPL managers

More content

Geek note: If you join our Patreon site you will get access to an FPL contributor tracker team which combines the contributors individual teams each week to show their favourite players, transfers and captains. It will always be completed on a Friday/Saturday in a normal gameweek. There will also be a spreadsheet of each managers teams, transfers and captains so you can drill down further.

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Weekly podcasts with the Geek and the other contributors

Joe’s interactive transfer planner and points projection tool

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12 thoughts on “fantasy premier league teams GW9 – some early thoughts on the FFGeek team”

  1. My team is very similar to your last Geek. I’m very tempted to wildcard but have a niggling feeling I’ll regret it as I’m tempted to lose Salah, Robertson and Sterling and bolster my attack with Auba and Vardy/Wilson.
    I finished top 3,700 OR last season and one thing that would have served me well is more patience, I may have broken the top 2k if I had. So with 2 transfers in the bag I think I’m going to stock with my (largely template based) team and see what happens.
    good luck all for GW 9

  2. Given that Andrew and Joe, both players with enormous patience, as well as the other contributors who are wildcarding, tells me the template is changing and one is wise to get ahead of the curve.
    Salah may need to go for the reasons stated, even if it is only to Mane. You have to figure DeBruyne may not play the whole game after the IB break as a precaution. And City’s defense has been shockingly bad– I cant see Stones changing their fortunes around. They were porous when he was in last year.

    One of TAA and Robertson should go because they are not performing against anyone currently and it is a huge investment in defense. As you note, one Pool defender is the template anyway. . Pukki and Cantwell need to go if you have watched their last three games unless Cantwell is a bench player. Given the fixtures Arsenal has and the choices of your correspondent’s draft teams, he appears headed to template status.

    Finally, one has to decide if Auba will be the new template. Given the fixtures Arsenal has and the choices of your correspondent’s draft teams, he appears headed to template status. There isn’t anyone on his team that I really can see in my team either unless a big punt on Pepe appeals.

    I think you will end up wildcarding because you simply cannot afford to be wrong again next week and you are generally so hit averse. It might be different if you had two transfers and could do a “mini-wildcard” for a -4. As someone who at this time last year went from 3800 OR in week 3 to 800,000 OR about now, let me tell you, it was hard to recover. I have played my wildcard because I am at 600k after a bad week (-200,000) and need to start moving up.

  3. hey Geek – I would WC. I WCarded the Thursday before the Friday deadline of GW 2. It’s never too late. Everyone was telling me it was a mistake after 97 pts in week 1. It worked out excellent. Got rid of expensive def’s and just kept TAA. Went Mane over Salah and heavy up top with Auba and Kane/Kun.

    You team needs a make over I reckon. No point in taking hits to fix it.

    Have not looked back since. Top 100 OR and TV 103m.

    • My OR just dropped massively over 3 the last GWs (almost 900k) and its killed me
      I lost my overall top positions in all my leagues.
      My OR is slightly above 1 Million.
      My team value is the worst i have in 4 seasons of FPL
      I just WC for the new GW 9 and was wondering who i should have in my team.

      Any help would be great.

    • Fantastic decision and rank mate. Great that you believed in your thought process despite the feedback. I haven’t ruled out a WC although I think it’s unlikely at the moment even though I expect this week will be another difficult one.

      Cheers and good luck this week

    • i know and my new team is

      Pope Heaton
      Pereira Tomori Rico Otamendi Lund
      Saka Traore Sterling Mcginn mount
      Abraham Auba C. Wilson

      Traore is only short term – hoping for price hike and will be replaced tentatively with KDB
      Thinking of Tomori with Soyuncu but 2 leceister defenders??
      also i have no leceister attacking options – Madisson perhaps?

      need feedback

      much appreciated

      • @johnathan – lose one of your 4.5m keepers. play one ever week.

        Dont get carried away with Traore.
        I dont trust Ota/City def without Laporte
        Kdb is a must
        Love your strikers
        You need Mane, believe me.

        • Traore is only a filler for price hike.
          He will be replaced by kdb before the start of gw9 provided kdb is fit. If not then mane.

          For mane, either a direct switch with sterling or option 2 where I have to downgrade a striker, Heaton (to McGovern and get 0.5), and depending who do u suggest on replacing Ota.. Then upgrade either saka/mount/mcginn

          My defenders situation is a bit sticky.
          Pereira is racking up points and good fixtures but if I downgrade Ota, I will not have any so called premium defenders. I am not saying I am not opting to sell Ota because man city are leaking in goals but at 5.5 who do you think it’s a viable replacement?

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