Here’s our Fantasy Premier League Tips 2021 article where we rank the FPL Forwards for GW4 and beyond. There’s stats and commentary which will help you with you FPL teams now
Fantasy Premier League Tips 2021 – Forward Player Rankings GW4
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Introduction
This article consists of a schedule ranking forwardss based mainly on last season based on their underlying stats over the whole season. xG90 and xA90 are converted to FPL attacking points adjusted by their average minutes played.
There’s also their FPL points per match as well as their value for money rating. The higher the better. Above 10 is the gold standard
The rankings are purely mathematical although there has been some subjective adjustment for performances so far this season and fixtures. The attacking players fixture ease schedule is below
Their is a new stat based on the performances in each individual gameweek where they are rated good, ok or bad in relation to their cost. The column “21/22 xVal” states how many times they were rated good and ok in the first 3 gameweeks. Prices are as of 7 September.
First a word on Ronaldo and Lukaku
You will notice when you see the schedule that I haven’t attempted to rank Ronaldo or Lukaku.
Ronaldo has yet to play in the PL this season and we’ve yet to hear any words from Solskjaer as to whether he will start in GW4. I haven’t attempted to extrapolate stats from Serie A to the PL but suffice to say his Juve stats are incredible. His entry point at home to Newcastle couldn’t be better but after that it’s pretty mixed. Overall I’ve ranked it 12th. There’s also how he rotates with Cavani to be assessed.
As for Lukaku he has played twice. An incredible performance v Arsenal and then a 10 man game v Liverpool. His stats are also excellent from Inter. Lukaku’s fixture ranking is 3rd although that is based on fixtures from GW7 onwards. Obviously there’s also rotation to consider which seems high on Tuchel’s agenda
I think it depends on how you want to play the Captaincy situation. I’ve done an in depth article on how to rotate premiums given the fixtures
The Schedule
Comments on individual players
Kane
If you’re surprised to see Kane at the head of this schedule you may have missed the introduction on Ronaldo and Lukaku. Also you may have forgotten that last season he had the most goals and assists in FPL. Namely 23 and 14. Backed up by excellent underlying stats in quality and volume.
Has had a tricky start to the season after the whole Man City saga but the break has been useful for fitness and should come back to something like the level we expect. Great entry point vs Palace but then things get tricky.
Should be safer than the UCL premiums given Spurs are in the Europa Conference this season.
Antonio
4 goals and 4 assists in 3 games. Double figure FPL points in each game. Backed up by incredible underlying stats. Hopefully retains pens despite the miss.
Good fixture next but then things are a bit more mixed
Calvert Lewin
Withdrew from the England squad so needs to be assessed so watch out for the Press conference
Has taken on penalty duties and has received 2 already. Had the system designed round him by Benitez and already has 3 goals in 3 games.
Good fixtures and entry point with Burnley next and Norwich in GW6
Vardy
The worst entry point possible next v Man City. One to park for consideration until next week
C Wilson
Another injury doubt so another to monitor. Also a terrible entry point vs Man Utd so another to park for consideration next week
Bamford
Another to park to next week with Liverpool next
Maupay
Has started the season relatively well with 2 goals in his first 3 games and has a great entry point with Brentford next. Good underlying stats but very much off the back of his first excellent performance v Burnley. With Welbeck coming back from injury he has some competition or at the very least the potential to lose minutes through substitutions which needs monitoring. However if you’re taking the risk this week is the one to do it.
Richarlison
I’ve put him in the rankings but really you should be looking to find the cash for Calvert-Lewin assuming he’s fit.
Jimenez
A tricky one here. Has been given a 3 rating for form in the first 3 games but they were all due to his volume underlying stats and the quality was pretty ordinary.
Last season as you can see from the underlying stats was a bit troubling even if through good finishing he turned it into a good PPM.
So that’s 2 seasons (albeit 3 games so far of this one) that’s been fairly underwhelming. However his 5.1 PPM season 19/20 was absolutely excellent with 17 goals and 7 assists and a tribute to his creativity as well.
However this is a straightforward fixture gamble as they are excellent and the hope is that 19/20 Jimenez is still there.
Chris Wood
Was good with a poachers goal v Leeds but quality wise the 2 performances before that were pretty underwhelming. Fixtures aren’t great
Jesus
2 great performances in 2 starts out on the right in the 5-0 wins and already has 1 goal and 3 assists. It’s just the fixtures and with Leicester, Chelsea and Liverpool in the next 4 and the ever present rotation threat especially for the front 3.
Danny Ings
Chelsea away next is a great exit point and there are more difficult fixtures after that. May have returned every game but underlying stats have not been good at all.
A few players not in the schedule to explain.
I’ve not put in the Southampton duo of £6.0m Armstrong and £7.0m Adams due to the fixtures. £5.9m Pukki and £6.4m Toney similarly.
Watford’s £5.2m Dennis was out wide v Spurs and is realistically a playing bench option. I think we need to see Palace’s £6.5m Edouard before assessing. Spurs next isn’t a great entry point anyway.
I’ve not included £8.8m Firmino due to an injury doubt or £8.7m Werner or £8.4m Cavani for gametime risk issues
Fixture Ease Schedule
Other Posts
Analysing the teams of 12 top FPL Managers
The FFGeek Contributors teams for GW4 part 1
FFGeek Contributors teams Part 2
Early thoughts on the FFGeek team
The FFGeek Fixture ease schedules
How to juggle the 4 premium captains
The Bandwagons and Sinking ships
Joseph Crilleys transfer planner and points projection tool
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