fantasy premier league tips forwards GW11 – player rankings


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Here’s our fantasy premier league tips forwards GW11 article in our player rankings series. There’s a table of stats to help you make a transfer choice plus some commentary afterwards

fantasy premier league tips forwards GW11 – player rankings





This is the 3rd article in our player rankings series. See the defender and GK player rankings article and the midfield player rankings article

Methodology

I’ve started with a selection of forwards that I think will start GW11 and have some longevity in the team.

I’ve then looked at their expected goals and assists data in 18/19 so far as well as how it relates to their historical numbers. I’ve then adjusted it for their ability to over/underperform, their bonus potential, their fixtures over the next 6 and any specific 18/19 factors and numbers.

Whether you believe the rankings or not there’s plenty of information to make your own decision

Stats definitions

SP/Pen: indicates whether the player has some set piece representation or penalty responsibility

Pts per 90: the FPL points earned per 90 minutes played in 18/19

Consistency: the % of starts where the player has scored a goal or assist. Sub appearances are ignored.

Mins last 4: average minutes of the last 4 matches. Generally I count sub appearances or rotation but not injury absences although there is some discretion there.

Fixture ease ranking so you can see who has the best fixtures from GW11-16 and GW11-13. See our fixture ease article

xG90/xA 90 – their expected goals and expected assists per 90 minutes played. An xG90 of 0.3 would imply a 30% chance of scoring every 90 minutes based on an average premier league player. I’ve taken them from the excellent free site understat.com

Shots per 90 – shots per 90 minutes played. I’ve taken this from the excellent free site whoscored.com

ATGS GW11 – 1 bookies anytime goalscoring odds for the player. It assumes they start and doesn’t include assist potential.

PP£M rank – the points per million rank.  This does tend to value the cheap players.

Player values are as of Thursday 1 November.

The schedule

Remember it ranks players by projected points over the next 6 games.

Here’s the schedule. If difficult to read you can copy and paste it by using this link to the google spreadsheet.  I’ve laid it out so it’s much easier to sort the columns by higher and lower once you’ve copied it



fantasy premier league tips forwards GW11

Not too many surprises here.

Aguero’s stats are so awesome that even hammering his minutes he’s still top dog.  Kane stats despite all the false 9 drama are still ok even if his shot volumes are eye poppingly bad.

I’ve assumed that Arnautovic won’t take pens from Noble.  Noble may be suspended for 2 games but I haven’t changed the analysis for that.  Murray I have assumed will take pens over from Gross as Gross may even not be back for the next 6.

Wilson still ranks highly despite a fixture turn as his stats so far are so good.

Who isn’t there?

There’s no Vardy or Lukaku who were benched last week although Puel tried to make it sound like it was fitness related which contradicted Vardy pre match saying he was fit.

I’ve left Deeney and King off as injury doubts.

See also the popular and not so popular transferred forwards in the bandwagons and sinking ships article plus also who the 10 top managers I follow have in their team. Also who I have or maybe interested in getting in the early thoughts on the FFgeek team article

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2 thoughts on “fantasy premier league tips forwards GW11 – player rankings”

  1. Manuel Pellegrini on Marko Arnautovic’s game-time v Spurs: “Marko just worked one day during the week so it was too risky to play more than 30 minutes. He has no problem but he always has some sort of disturbance with his knee but it is not an injury.”

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