fantasy premier league tips forwards GW13 – player rankings


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Here’s our fantasy premier league tips forwards GW13 article in our player rankings series. There’s a table of stats to help you make a transfer choice plus some commentary afterwards

fantasy premier league tips forwards GW13 – player rankings

This is the 3rd article in our player rankings series. See the defender and GK player rankings article and the midfield player rankings article

Methodology

I’ve started with a selection of forwards that I think will start GW13 and have some longevity in the team.

I’ve then looked at their expected goals and assists data in 18/19 so far as well as how it relates to their historical numbers. I’ve then adjusted it for their ability to over/underperform, their bonus potential, their fixtures over the next 6 and any specific 18/19 factors and numbers.

Whether you believe the rankings or not there’s plenty of information to make your own decision

Stats definitions

SP/Pen: indicates whether the player has some set piece representation or penalty responsibility

Pts per 90: the FPL points earned per 90 minutes played in 18/19

Consistency: the % of starts where the player has scored a goal or assist. Sub appearances are ignored.

Mins last 4: average minutes of the last 4 matches. Generally I count sub appearances or rotation but not injury absences although there is some discretion there.

Fixture ease ranking so you can see who has the best fixtures from GW13-18 and GW13-15. See our fixture ease article

xG90/xA 90 – their expected goals and expected assists per 90 minutes played. An xG90 of 0.3 would imply a 30% chance of scoring every 90 minutes based on an average premier league player. I’ve taken them from the excellent free site understat.com

Sh90 and KP90 and – shots per 90 and key passes per 90 minutes played. I’ve taken this from the excellent free site whoscored.com

ATGS GW13 and ATasst – 1 bookies anytime goalscoring odds and anytime assists for the player. ATGS assumes they start and doesn’t include assist potential. Only some games have assist stats.  Not available at the moment

Player values are as of Saturday 17 November.

The schedule

Remember it ranks players by projected points over the next 6 games.

Here’s the schedule. If difficult to read you can copy and paste it by using this link to the google spreadsheet. I’ve laid it out so it’s much easier to sort the columns by higher and lower once you’ve copied it



fantasy premier league best forwards GW13

Aguero

Ticks every box except for the annoying habit of being subbed early by Pep.  However he’s the only attacking player to have started every game for City

West Ham (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Watford (A)
Chelsea (A)
Everton (H)
Crystal Palace (H)

Kane

Not performing at anything like the level you’d expect and under performing his underlying stats which is something that hasn’t happened in the last 4 years at Spurs.  In fact history shows him to be a very good finisher.  Recent shot volumes are looking more like the Kane  we would expect to see.   I’m expecting to see a turnaround in his returns.  Next 2 fixtures allow the opportunity to wait though.

Chelsea (H)
Arsenal (A)
Southampton (H)
Leicester (A)
Burnley (H)
Everton (A)

Vardy

A very similar story to Kane to a large extent.  No returns in his last 5 paints a drastic picture.  However he has been producing very  good underlying stats but woefully under performing them.  Something that doesn’t appear in his history and would give hope that things will turnaround.

Brighton (A)
Watford (H)
Fulham (A)
Spurs (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
Chelsea (A)

Lacazette

He is an injury doubt so needs monitoring.  Since he’s become the starting CF he’s played 9 games scoring 5 goals and 3 assists.  His underlying stats aren’t fantastic but he’s shown an ability to over perform them fairly consistently.  Mixed fixtures.

Bournemouth (A)
Spurs (H)
Man Utd (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Southampton (A)
Burnley (H)

Aubameyang

Playing as LW and a bit of a substitution risk but he’s been excellent when on the pitch.  It’s just the consistent pitch time he needs to add to those 5 goals in his last 5 games.

Bournemouth (A)
Spurs (H)
Man Utd (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Southampton (A)
Burnley (H)

Morata

History shows that Morata tends to have fairly up and down finishing seasons which is what we saw last year.  3 goals in his last 3 games is good recent form and the underlying stats are very good.

Spurs (A)
Fulham (H)
Wolves (A)
Man City (H)
Brighton (A)
Leicester (H)

Arnautovic

Has been battling niggling injuries but has played over the International Break which is a positive sign for GW13.  1 returning game in his last 4 isn’t great recent form.  However over the season he’s performed well considering the opening fixtures.  After Manchester City next the fixtures are very good and that’s the main attraction.  The question of penalties are a big one and I’m assuming that Noble will keep them as Noble allowing Arnautovic to take an earlier penalty was a one off.

Man City (H)
Newcastle (A)
Cardiff (H)
Crystal Palace (H)
Fulham (A)
Watford (H)

Wilson

The 2nd top point scoring forward has been in fantastic form all season backed up by good underlying stats.  However now there is a fixture swing with 3 of the so called top 6 sides including the 2 best defences in the next 4.   His performances in scoring v Man Utd was helpful for the hold case but it was a 1 shot game blanking at Chelsea which was less helpful.

Arsenal (H)
Man City (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Liverpool (H)
Wolves (A)
Brighton (H)

Ings

Is a major injury doubt for GW13 although the FPL site put’s it at 75%.  The negative is that it’s just the 1 goal and assist in the last 6 games.  After Fulham 3 of the next 4 games are against top 6 sides.  What he has done is produced consistently good underlying stats although failed to deliver on them which has been a bit of a theme.  Does have pens which is a bonus and cheap enough to be benched occasionally.

Fulham (A)
Man Utd (H)
Spurs (A)
Cardiff (A)
Arsenal (H)
Huddersfield (A)



Jimenez

Jimenez has good returns and consistency and can assist as well as score.  However his underlying stats are pretty ordinary and this season and last at Athletico he’s failed to deliver on them.  This is about 2 great fixtures next.

Huddersfield (H)
Cardiff (A)
Chelsea (H)
Newcastle (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Liverpool (H)

Rondon

Although he scored 2 goals v Bournemouth there has been nothing prior to this for Newcastle or any team to suggest he can be a steady returner of points.  His underlying stats look good but they are propped up by that 1 performance.

What he does have is good fixtures and 2 crossing wingers in Kenedy and Ritchie.

Burnley (A)
West Ham (H)
Everton (A)
Wolves (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Fulham (H)

Murray

Been a pretty consistent returner but not really backed up by the underlying stats. Also the question of penalties is unresolved as it could be him or Gross when he returns.

Leicester (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Burnley (A)
Chelsea (H)
Bournemouth (A)

Vokes

Nothing much to offer except he appears to be first choice for the moment and he’s cheap enough to rotate through the fixtures

Newcastle (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
Liverpool (H)
Brighton (H)
Spurs (A)
Arsenal (A)

Zaha

Stuck on the left wing he has been a consistent returner but the lack of bonus and goal threat continues to inhibit him

Man Utd (A)
Burnley (H)
Brighton (A)
West Ham (A)
Leicester (H)
Man City (A)

See also the most popular transfers in our bandwagons and sinking ships article, also Andrew Ferguson’s teams. Andrew finished 715 OR last season.

Plus our fixture ease article,  early thoughts on the FFGeek team and the 10 top FPL managers article

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