Here’s our fantasy premier league tips forwards GW31 article in our player rankings series. There’s a table of stats to help you make your transfer choice, some commentary and upcoming fixtures
fantasy premier league tips forwards GW31 – player rankings
This is the 3rd article in our player rankings series. See the defender and GK player rankings and midfield player rankings
Methodology
I’ve generally started with a selection of forwards who have fixtures and I think will start in GW31 and have some longevity in the team.
I’ve then looked at their expected goals and assists data in 18/19 so far as well as how it relates to their historical numbers. After that I’ve then adjusted it for their ability to over/underperform, their bonus potential, their fixtures over the next 6 and any specific 18/19 factors and numbers.
I’ve adjusted their position based on an assessment of the fixtures to the end of the season
Stats definitions
PP90 mins adjusted: I’ve taken their Points per 90 and adjusted them for average minutes played in the last 10 games.
FFG Proj PPG: The PPG going forward using the above methodology adjusted for minutes played
Consistency: the % of starts where the player has scored a goal or assist. Only appearance of 45 mins or more count
Average mins last 10: The average minutes played when starting in the last 10 gameweeks
ATGS odds – 1 bookies anytime goalscoring odds for the player. It assumes they start and doesn’t include assist potential.
Player values are as of 14 March 2019.
A quick word on doubles and blanks and it’s affect on the rankings
See my most recent blanks and doubles article
As different managers will have different strategies and chips left it is impossible to cater for every possibility in a fixture adjustment. So I’ve adjusted their ranking dependent on fixtures to the end of the season. You can still use the stats and the fixtures below to make an assessment on which player suits your future strategy best.
The schedule
The players are ranked on their ongoing FFGeek points per game assessment with the ranking adjusted for fixtures to the end of the season. Only players with a fixture in GW31 are in the schedule
Vardy
Leicester have guaranteed games in the blank weeks of GW31 and GW33 but no DGWs
In Rodgers first 3 games Vardy has produced 31 FPL points (including 7 bonus points) via 4 goals and an assist. He has been praised by Rodgers, seemingly endlessly, and has adapted to the pressing style that Rodgers has introduced
It’s also a decent run of fixtures to come
GW31 Burnley (A)
GW32 Bournemouth (H)
GW33 Huddersfield (A)
GW34 Newcastle (H)
GW35 West Ham (A)
GW36 Arsenal (H)
Wilson
Bournemouth have a guaranteed fixture in GW31 and GW33 but won’t have any DGWs
After being out with an injury for 6 gameweeks the Bournemouth striker returned for for an 11 point goal and assist performance vs Huddersfield. He played the full 90 minutes which is a good sign for the weeks ahead.
That’s 3 goals in his last 3 starts and for the price he’s been a very consistent returner over the season.
A great set of fixtures to come
GW31 Newcastle (H)
GW32 Leicester (A)
GW33 Burnley (H)
GW34 Brighton (A)
GW35 Fulham (H)
GW36 Southampton (A)
Higuain
Chelsea have guaranteed games in the blank weeks of GW31 and GW33. They also have a postponed game yet to be played v Brighton (H). That is likely to be GW32.
It’s firstly worth mentioning that he has been left out of the Chelsea squad to play Dynamo Kiev due to illness but with the intention he would be ready for for the weekend. That needs monitoring.
Higuain has got off to a pretty ok start with 3 goals in 6 games. That’s tempered by the fact that 2 were against Huddersfield and he’s only returned in 2 of the 6 fixtures. Underlying stats are at best ok. You’d think there will be improvement though as he gets more used to the team and the league.
The fixtures don’t reflect the likely DGW32 for Chelsea mentioned above
GW31 Everton (A)
GW32 Cardiff (A)
GW33 West Ham (H)
GW34 Liverpool (A)
GW35 Burnley (H)
GW36 Man Utd (A)
King
Bournemouth have a guaranteed fixture in GW31 and GW33 but won’t have any DGWs
1 goal in his last 6 games followed 24 FPL points in the 2 prior to that.
He has been producing pretty good underlying stats but his scoring is pretty erratic to say the least. His main attraction is as the penalty taker.
GW31 Newcastle (H)
GW32 Leicester (A)
GW33 Burnley (H)
GW34 Brighton (A)
GW35 Fulham (H)
GW36 Southampton (A)
Firmino
Liverpool have guaranteed games in the blank weeks of GW31 and GW33 but no DGWs
2 goals in his last start v Burnley came after 3 gameweeks where 2 of them were off the substitutes bench. His almost false 9 role and dropping off consistently has meant that his shooting stats are good but not at an elite level. He also hasn’t managed to produce returns at a consistent level that you’d like for the price.
GW31 Fulham (A)
GW32 Spurs (H)
GW33 Southampton (A)
GW34 Chelsea (H)
GW35 Cardiff (A)
GW36 Huddersfield (H)
Barnes
Burnley have guaranteed games in the blank weeks of GW31 and GW33 but no DGWs
For the price he’s been a revelation in terms of returns, consistency and underlying stats. 5 goals and an assist in his last 7 is testament to that.
It’s just how sustainable this is given that he’s in nose bleed country compared to previous seasons. Seems to have taken penalty duties
Leicester (H)
Wolves (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Cardiff (H)
Chelsea (A)
Man City (H)
Rondon
Newcastle have a game in the blank of GW31 but are not guaranteed one in GW33. Palace need to lose to Watford in the FA Cup quarters for Newcastles GW33 fixture to stay.
2 goals and 2 assists in his last 4 is pretty good going. You also know he’s pretty much going to get 90 minutes as well.
Underlying stats are pretty consistent with his overall level of returns which are good for the price.
GW31 Bournemouth (A)
GW32 Arsenal (A)
GW33 Crystal Palace (H)
GW34 Leicester (A)
GW35 Southampton (H)
GW36 Brighton (A)
Mitrovic
Fulham have a game in the blank of GW31 but are not guaranteed one in GW33. Watford need to lose to Palace in the FA Cup quarters for Fulham’s GW33 fixture to stay.
It’s 6 games without a return and only 1 returning game in the last 10 for Mitrovic. Incredibly the underlying stats haven’t been too bad over that period and by any definition he must be due. Unfortunately that’s less likely in GW31 or 32 against Liverpool and Man City you would say.
Is the designated penalty taker
GW31 Liverpool (H)
GW32 Man City (H)
GW33 Watford (A)
GW34 Everton (H)
GW35 Bournemouth (A)
GW36 Cardiff (H)
Wood
Burnley have guaranteed games in the blank weeks of GW31 and GW33 but no DGWs
After a great spell of 4 goals in 4 games he’s blanked in his last 3. Has been overshadowed by his strike partner Barnes in pretty much every aspect.
Leicester (H)
Wolves (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Cardiff (H)
Chelsea (A)
Man City (H)
Arnautovic
West Ham have guaranteed games in the blank weeks of GW31 and GW33 but no DGWs
Hasn’t started any of the last 6 for various reasons.
However this is what Pellegrini said today:
“Marko was out of the team for several reasons. First, because his mind was out when he had the option to go to China. Then he returned and didn’t work for about a week, so he needed time to recover his performance.
“After that, he was sick. He was going to start against Manchester City but he felt bad that day. There’s a lot of reasons why he was starting on the bench, but I think he is ready to return in his position.”
To pick Arnautovic you have to be attracted firstly by the Huddersfield fixture, then take the leap that the above means he will start that fixture and then put some pretty ordinary underlying stats to one side as well.
You have to believe in the player and the opposition and take a leap of faith that the real Arnautovic will show up.
GW31 Huddersfield (H)
GW32 Everton (H)
GW33 Chelsea (A)
GW34 Man Utd (A)
GW35 Leicester (H)
GW36 Spurs (A)
See also current 4k OR Jordan Sadler’s free hit team and Rob Reids free hit teams article
There’s our FPL form article and our best underlying stats from GW30 only
See also our 10 top FPL managers article and the early FFGeek team articles and last season’s 715 OR finisher Andrew Ferguson’s team
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