If you read my earlier fantasy premier league strategy article you’ll remember how I said that an injured player gives the opportunity for a cheaper player to take his place. Probably the classic example last year was the injury to £5.5m Debuchy for Arsenal which allowed the £4.5m Chambers and then the £4.5m Bellerin line up in defence. Transfers also can provide the same value. The ideal situation would be someone who leaves after the fantasy premier league site opens and that allows a cheaper player to take his place. This article is to give a few situations which we can assess as possibilities in pre-season
fantasy premier league tips – looking for value through injuries and transfers
Injuries
Just to clarify before I start that I haven’t included Sanchez, Aguero, Demichelis, and Zabaleta who will probably start the season late due to the Copa America. I suspect the rest will be up to a few games which makes it difficult to justify putting someone in for such a short period unless you will make an immediate transfer when they return.
Daniel Sturridge
Daniel Sturridge is unquestionably the no 1 striker for Liverpool. He’s now injured until Ocober 2015 which means a replacement will be required for the first 8 gameweeks or so.
Persnally I find it hard to believe that Liverpool wont bite the bullet and spend a bundle of money on a forward. Lyon striker Lacazette and Villa’s Benteke are currently heading the rumours. Until then it’s a question of who out of Lambert, Borini, Balotelli, Ings and Origi will lead the line. It seems to me that Lambert, Borini and Balotelli are out of favour and until someone is purchased it’s a straight fight between Ings and Origi.
It’s especially relevant given Liverpool’s fixtures to start which have 3 excellent home games in the first 6:
Stoke (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Arsenal (A)
West Ham (H)
Manchester United (A)
Norwich (H)
Lets take a quick look at their stats from last season:
Ings 14/15: 35 games 11 goals 4 assists. A goal or assist every 202 minutes.
Origi 14/15: 33 games 8 goals and 4 assists. A goal or assists every 179 minutes.
We’ll be monitoring the transfer situation and pre-season gametime of both Ings and Origi prior to GW1
Ben Foster
The WBA GK is out until October and again there appear to be 8 game weeks where Myhill as a reserve will be holding the fort at a hopefully far cheaper price than Foster. The only issue is that changing GKs during the season seems like such a waste of a transfer. It’s the sort of transfer you want to leave to the 2 wildcards.
Southamptons Fraser Forster
The Southampton GK could be out well into 2016.
That gives a great opportunity for a cheap understudy to take his place. The problem is two fold though. Who will take his place. Both Davis and Gazzaniga got some gametime last season and now Koeman has bought in experienced GK Martin Stekelenburg. Pre-season hopefully will clarify the situation. Luckily Southampton have 2 Europa League qualifiers prior to GW1 but unfortunately it’s possible a Cup GK maybe assigned which could throw us off the scent. However it’s possible to follow the new trend of 2 GKs of the same team taking the position to de-risk the possibility of the wrong choice although that will massively depend on price. The 2nd problem is do we want exposure to the Southampton defence given that Clyne and Alderweireld have left and Forster is injured. Even Bertrand could be injured for the start of the season. Price and certainty will be the key. Pre-season will be crucial.
Transfers
RVP potential transfer and Falcao transfer
With RVP set to go, Falcao at Chelsea, Hernandez injured and out of favour just leaves James Wilson as the only striker apart from Wayne Rooney. It’s hard to imagine that there won’t be a transfer prior to GW1 to fix this situation but up until then it’s Wayne Rooney who should be leading the line. Despite spending the large part of the season in midfield it seems too much to ask for him to be classified as a midfielder in FPL. However a price drop and a centre forward role for GW1 would make him a very attractive proposition.
Here’s their fixtures:
Tottenham (H)
A Villa (A)
Newcastle (H)
Swansea (A)
Liverpool (H)
Southampton (A)
So 3 good opening fixtures make Rooney an enticing prospect. We’ll be looking at his position and the transfer position over pre-season
The Spurs defence
Only 4 sides conceded more goals than Spurs last season and only 3 sides had less clean sheets. The defence was a total disaster last season. However there’s no doubt after the success at transforming the defence at Southampton that Pochettino has the skill to do it. In addition the transfers of Austrian CB Kevin Wimmer coupled with the existing Vertonghen and the transfer os Southampton CB Alderweireld and Burnley RB Kevin Trippier (add the existing KyleWalker) give the potential to transform the defence. Danny Rose becomes the potential beneficiary depending on price. He started the FPL season last year at £5.0m and this looks good value in what could be a much improved defence if he can hold it. I personally think GK LLoris is crucial though and should he leave the potential improvements could not materialise. Whether the FPL price setters will price in a perceived improvement remains to be seen as well.
Bournemouth and Watford
Both have made defensive improvements which could make an investment in those players within the team at £4.5m or hopefully £4.0m a much better bet than recent perceptions. New LB Mings and CB Distin will give Bournemouth a much improved defence. Watford looks even more significant with Capoue signed as a CDM defensive shield plus Greek LB Holebas has been signed as well as the experienced Werder Bremen Austrian International CB Sebastian Prodl. Again it will be interesting to see how the defence is rated. We’ll be looking for the value in pre-season.
Cech to Arsenal
The Arsenal defence underperformed greatly last season with 5 teams gaining more than their 13 clean sheets. While another CB and a CDM would really seal the improvements the addition of GK Cech should go along way to making the necessary defensive improvements. It’s hard to see Koscielny being less than £6.0m but any reduction or improvement in personnel will make him look like a very viable premium defender. There remains even more potential at the LB and RB position depending on price and whether Bellerin/Chambers/Debuchy or Monreal/Gibbs can nail down that spot.
Thats it hope you found it interesting and it gives you, along with ourselves, some additional things to focus on in pre-season
