fantasy premier league tips midfielders GW12 – player rankings


,

Here’s our fantasy premier league tips midfielders GW12 article in our player rankings series. There’s a table of stats and commentary plus fixtures to help you make a transfer choice.

fantasy premier league tips midfielders GW12 – player rankings





This is the 2nd article in our player rankings series. See the defender and GK player rankings article.

Methodology

I’ve started with a selection of midfielders that I think will start GW12 and have some longevity in the team.

I’ve then looked at their expected goals and assists data in 18/19 so far as well as how it relates to their historical numbers. After that I’ve then adjusted it for their ability to over/underperform, their bonus potential, their fixtures over the next 6 and any specific 18/19 factors and numbers.

Whether you believe the rankings or not there’s plenty of information to make your own decision

Stats definitions

SP/Pen: indicates whether the player has some set piece representation or penalty responsibility

Pts per 90: the FPL points earned per 90 minutes played in 18/19

Consistency: the % of starts where the player has scored a goal or assist. Sub appearances are ignored.

Mins last 4: average minutes of the last 4 matches. Generally I count sub appearances or rotation but not injury absences although there is some discretion there.

Fixture ease ranking so you can see who has the best fixtures from GW12-17 and GW12-14. See our fixture ease article

xG90/xA 90 – their expected goals and expected assists per 90 minutes played. An xG90 of 0.3 would imply a 30% chance of scoring every 90 minutes based on an average premier league player. I’ve taken them from the excellent free site understat.com

SH90 and KP90 – shots and key passes per 90 minutes played. I’ve taken this from the excellent free site whoscored.com

ATGS and ATassts GW12 – 1 bookies anytime goalscoring odds for the player. It assumes they start and doesn’t include assist potential.  However the bookie I use now has some games with assist odds which I’ve also put in

Player values are as of Wednesday 7 November.

The schedule

The schedule ranks players by expected FPL  points over the next 6 games.

If difficult to read you can copy and paste it by using this link to the google spreadsheet.  The spreadsheet should be easy to sort into the various columns as I’ve separated them out apart from the consistency fractions



fantasy premier league tips midfielders GW12

Manchester City

As I said last week the problem with ranking the Man City midfielders is guessing the minutes they will play.  You can see from their PP90’s and underlying stats that when on the pitch they’re pretty devastating.  The problem is when and for how long they are going to play.

Interestingly Sterling hasn’t played twice this season but helpfully didn’t come on as sub although he probably could be pretty handy anyway

Use the information above to pick one you like

Man Utd (H)
West Ham (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Watford (A)
Chelsea (A)
Everton (H)

 Everton 

Sigurdsson has pens and set pieces and under Silva has been playing as a CAM which is his most influential position.  However his ranking is boosted by his ability to out perform his underlying stats which he has done consistently.  It doesn’t half put the pressure on him though to meet his ranking.  4 goals and an assist in his last 5 is good though.

I’ve been ranking Richarlison lower than many as last season he missed his expected goals by about half.  This season he’s beating it by close to double so what to make of that is the question.  I’ve evened it out.  Playing striker doesn’t particularly seem to change his stats particularly as he played in a front 3 for Watford anyway if not centrally.  His 2 goals at the weekend made it 3 goals and an assist in his last 4.

It’s now 1 assist in his last 8 for Walcott and although his underlying stats aren’t that bad he consistently undershoots them

Fixtures are mixed to say the least

Chelsea (A)
Cardiff (H)
Liverpool (A)
Newcastle (H)
Watford (H)
Man City (A)

Chelsea

It’s difficult to say enough good things about Hazard.  Just fitness as an issue with his back, although has apparently travelled for the Europa League.

Willian’s main problem is his minutes.  He’s the sub magnet as you can see from his last 4.  He does have set pieces but his stats let him down in the goal threat department. 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 6 starts plagued by 70 minute odd substitutions isn’t great

Alot was written about Barkley after his recent point hauls and the minutes risk with Kovacic showed itself after 63 minutes.  Barkleys game was a pretty dismal 1 shot no key pass performance.  Playing in the midfield 3 of 4-3-3 is not ideal as is the competition for his place.  The underlying stats though are pretty good and he is very cheap for a Chelsea midfielder with some points potential.

Everton (H)
Spurs (A)
Fulham (H)
Wolves (A)
Man City (H)
Brighton (A)

Man Utd

Martial when on the pitch returns and in his underlying stats are excellent and he is a clinical finisher who has over performed them.  Minutes and competition for his place are the only issue.  It’s now 5 goals and an assist in his last 4 games of which he played 90 minutes in 3.  Not a great entry point either away to Man City.

Pogba has penalty duties and good shot and key pass volumes.  Again it’s trying to produce returns from the CM position which isn’t ideal but a goal and 2 assists in his last 4 isn’t too sloppy.

I haven’t put Sanchez in until there’s more selection certainty.

Man City (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Southampton (A)
Arsenal (H)
Fulham (H)
Liverpool (A)

Bournemouth

Fraser continues to produce good quality chances for his team mates and 3 assists in his last 4 shows that.  Finally got back to having his customary 2 shots against Man Utd after 1 shot in total in the 4 matches prior to that.  History has shown him to be a good finisher although shooting straight at De Gea in a 1 on 1 didn’t exactly show that.

Brooks played as a CAM v Man Utd and was unlucky to not to return given he had 5 shots and 1 key pass.  That position was probably just a fill in for the injured Josh King who could also be out this week.  However it did allow Stanislas back in the team who is probably his competitor for the RW spot.  He is a midfielder who can get into goal scoring positions though and his shooting volumes and xG are very good.  Has had a few minutes issues recently though but still churned out 3 goals in his last 5 games

Newcastle (A)
Arsenal (H)
Man City (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Liverpool (H)
Wolves (A)

Anderson

Anderson kick started his PL career with 2 goals v Burnley after a pretty poor start of 1 goal and 1 assist in his first 10.  His underlying stats have been ok and history shows him to be a good finisher.  The fixtures are excellent apart from Man City.

Huddersfield (A)
Man City (H)
Newcastle (A)
Cardiff (H)
Crystal Palace (H)
Fulham (A)

Who’s not in the list

I’ve ignored Spurs even though I like Alli and Lamela alot.  It just needs the selection to be sorted with Alli and Eriksen coming back.

Only Ozil in from Arsenal as Emery chops and changes Mkhitaryan and Iwobi with Ramsey completely sidelined.

Brighton have some excellent fixtures but until Gross starts again I think the wingers still have something to prove.

See also the popular and not so popular midfielders in the bandwagons and sinking ships article plus also who the 10 top managers I follow have in their team. Also who I have or maybe interested in getting in the early thoughts on the FFgeek team article

Lastly also see who Andrew Ferguson has in his team.  He finished 715 OR last season

Follow us on twitter and facebook and instagram for article updates and news

Geek League links and details

fantasy premier league 

Sky Sports fantasy football

Enter PIN: 8367679

Sun Dream Team

League PIN is SGDKX9Y3

 

8 thoughts on “fantasy premier league tips midfielders GW12 – player rankings

  1. Hey geek, a lot of useful insights here as always. I decided to anticipate my wildcard to this week rather than wait until the international break and I’m thinking about replacing Salah with Mané. This would allow me to upgrade my defence to include Alonso and my attack to include Arnie and Wilson and finally drop Mitrovic and Ings.

    How big a risk is it to do it this week before Fulham? I’m currently chasing in my mini league and in the top 5 only 2 managers have Salah.
    Any input appreciated! Cheers

    • Hi mate

      If I was using my wildcard this gameweek I would possibly put both Salah and Mane and have some exit plan a couple of weeks later if I was convinced I didn’t want Salah. I’m not sure that dumping Salah before a Fulham home game is the time to do it. Good luck whatever you do

      Cheers

  2. I would stick with Salah as it’s too big a risk not owning him. If he returns big against Fulham and Mane doesnt then your ranking will suffer as every man and his dog will captain him.

  3. FPL have now updated it. He is out with a knee injury. Unknown return date… damn, it came one week too early for me as I was planning to get rid of him next week. I have already made my transfer this week.

Leave a Comment