fantasy premier league tips midfielders GW13 – player rankings


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Here’s our fantasy premier league tips midfielders GW13 article in our player rankings series. There’s a table of stats and commentary plus fixtures to help you make a transfer choice.

fantasy premier league tips midfielders GW13 – player rankings

This is the 2nd article in our player rankings series. See the defender and GK player rankings article.

Methodology

I’ve started with a selection of midfielders that I think will start GW13 and have some longevity in the team.

I’ve then looked at their expected goals and assists data in 18/19 so far as well as how it relates to their historical numbers. After that I’ve then adjusted it for their ability to over/underperform, their bonus potential, their fixtures over the next 6 and any specific 18/19 factors and numbers.  This is very different to my recent underlying stats article which took this seasons underlying stats adjusting it only for the average minutes played in the last 4 games

Whether you believe the rankings or not there’s plenty of information to make your own decision

Stats definitions

SP/Pen: indicates whether the player has some set piece representation or penalty responsibility

Pts per 90: the FPL points earned per 90 minutes played in 18/19

Consistency: the % of starts where the player has scored a goal or assist. Sub appearances are ignored.

Mins last 4: average minutes of the last 4 matches. Generally I count sub appearances or rotation but not injury absences although there is some discretion there.

Fixture ease ranking so you can see who has the best fixtures from GW13-18 and GW13-15. See our fixture ease article

xG90/xA 90 – their expected goals and expected assists per 90 minutes played. An xG90 of 0.3 would imply a 30% chance of scoring every 90 minutes based on an average premier league player. I’ve taken them from the excellent free site understat.com

SH90 and KP90 – shots and key passes per 90 minutes played. I’ve taken this from the excellent free site whoscored.com

ATGS and ATassts GW13 – 1 bookies anytime goalscoring odds for the player. It assumes they start and doesn’t include assist potential. However the bookie I use now has some games with assist odds which I’ve also put in.  The odds aren’t available as I write this on Friday 16 November.

Player values are as of Wednesday 16 November.

The schedule

The schedule ranks players by expected FPL points over the next 6 games.

If difficult to read you can copy and paste it by using this link to the google spreadsheet. The spreadsheet should be easy to sort into the various columns as I’ve separated them out apart from the consistency fractions.  The bookies odds will be available next week.

There are a number of injury issues at the moment although how many are precautionary related to the International Break is the issue.  I’ve tried to capture them in the commentary but they are also flagged on the FPL site.




fantasy premier league tips midfielders GW13

Man City

I’ll probably be saying this every week until the end of the season.  While the Man City midfielders are very productive when on the pitch minutes are the big issue and the main influence on their ranking.  However trying to pick what Pep is going to do in the future isn’t easy so use the data to make your own decision.

Their is a theory that if Mendy is injured for a long spell then Sane’s minutes should improve on the basis that he will make the width on the left hand side without Mendy.  The left back could be either one of Delph, Zinchenko or even Laporte none of which will have the advanced wide position making it difficult for Sane to be in the team

West Ham (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Watford (A)
Chelsea (A)
Everton (H)
Crystal Palace (H)

Chelsea

Hazard does it all and shouldn’t need any justification.

Willian and Barkleys main issues are minutes.  Willian as he is often a target to be substituted and Barkley appears to be in rotation with Kovacic.  Barkleys returns are fantastic if not particularly consistently delivered and Willians aren’t too bad either but again not consistently delivered.

Spurs (A)
Fulham (H)
Wolves (A)
Man City (H)
Brighton (A)
Leicester (H)

Spurs

Alli has been posting good xG numbers even if his volumes aren’t that impressive.  He has been playing deeper but has shown an ability to get into the box.  His game against Palace was very disappointing though especially as he was back in the central attacking position that should favour him.  Too tricky fixtures next before they improve.

Until Eriksen starts it’s impossible to know what the lineup will be which is why I’ve left out Moura and Lamela for the moment.  Lamela though has been posting some excellent underlying stats so if you think he will still start then he’s a good option at a great price of £6.5m

Chelsea (H)
Arsenal (A)
Southampton (H)
Leicester (A)
Burnley (H)
Everton (A)

Bournemouth

Fraser has some difficult fixtures coming up so it’s whether you think they will halt his returns.  He’s more of an assister than a scorer which isn’t ideal but the last 2 games he’s increased his shot numbers.  It’s whether you can bench him or think he should be sold for the fixtures coming up.

Brooks has been playing CAM in the absence of King and has been producing excellent numbers.  He does have competition from Stanislas when King is back although Stanislas is now an injury doubt as well.  Some of the earlier fixtures do show that he could be a substitution risk once the other 2 are back

Arsenal (H)
Man City (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Liverpool (H)
Wolves (A)
Brighton (H)



Everton

Sigurdsson has set pieces and pens and plays as a CAM can shoot from distance and also can get in the box.  Alot of positives for an FPL midfielder.  He is a significant injury risk though for GW13 which needs monitoring.

Richarlison is the FPL midfielder playing as a striker which is always a bonus.  The question is whether the Watford player who couldn’t hit a barn door or the lethal Everton finisher is who were going to see over the rest of the season.  He is an injury monitor but seems likely to be fit.

It’s been 5 consecutive blanks and 1 assist in the last 9 for Walcott which says alot.

Over the 6 the fixtures they are very tricky although in the main at the back end.

Cardiff (H)
Liverpool (A)
Newcastle (H)
Watford (H)
Man City (A)
Spurs (H)

A few others of note

Both Martial and Anderson have a history of being good finishers which has helped their rank.  Martial is an injury monitor.

Paterson has been playing as striker for Cardiff and producing some decent stats.  Being new to the league it’s difficult to assess how sustainable it is.

Gudmindsson is an injury risk which needs monitoring

See also the most popular transfers in our bandwagons and sinking ships article, also Andrew Ferguson’s teams. Andrew finished 715 OR last season.

Plus our fixture ease article,  early thoughts on the FFGeek team and the 10 top FPL managers article

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