fantasy premier league tips – midfielder player rankings GW4


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Here’s our fantasy premier league tips midfielders GW4 article in our player rankings series. There’s a table of stats to help you make a transfer choice plus some narrative on each player afterwards and their fixtures

fantasy premier league tips – midfielder player rankings GW4

This is our 2nd GW4 player rankings article. You can see defenders and GK rankings here

Methodology

I’ve started with a selection of midfielders that I think will start GW4 and have some longevity in the team.

I’ve then taken their expected goals and assist information from 17/18 and converted it into projected points through adjustments for minutes played bonus and fixtures. There’s also adjustments for any specific relevant 18/19 factors. For fixtures I’ve increased the view to 6 games.

Whether you believe the rankings or not there’s plenty of information to make your own decision

We are obviously only 3 gameweeks in so it’s inevitable that the large basis of information is based on last seasons stats

Stats definitions

Pts per 90: the FPL points earned per 90 minutes played in 17/18

Fixture ease ranking so you can see who has the best fixtures from GW4-9 and GW4-6. See our fixture ease article

Underlying stats ranking is from our end of season underlying stats article where projected goals are turned into raw points. It’s their rank in relation to each other not for every midfielder. Info from the excellent free site understat.com article

VFM rank. I have divided their projected points by their price to get a rough value for money assessment

ATGS GW4 – 1 bookies anytime goalscoring odds for the player. It assumes they start and doesn’t include assist potential

The schedule





fantasy premier league tips

Salah

Massive ownership and captain favouritism makes him a dangerous player not to own even if his price and performance expectations are fairly eye watering. So far with 2 goals and 2 assists in 3 games plus underlying stats even better than last season then it’s a pretty impressive start.

His main issue seems to be bonus points.  When you’re getting zero bonus points for a 2 assist game and scoring the winner in a 1-0 win then it’s a pretty sorry state as a pointer for the future.

Leicester (A)
Spurs (A)
Southampton (H)
Chelsea (A)
Man City (H)
Huddersfield (A)

Hazard

A rare midfielder to have penalty duties is one of a number of attractions to Hazard.  He’s started the season off on fire with a goal and 2 assists in a mere 133 minutes of football and his underlying stats, albeit on those limited minutes, have been a big improvement on last season.  A more attacking manager plus the fact that he was allowed to last the 90 minutes are all good signs.  If ever you’re going to get him in then 2 consecutive home games vs Bournemouth and Cardiff are the games to do it

Bournemouth (H)
Cardiff (H)
West Ham (A)
Liverpool (H)
Southampton (A)
Man Utd (H)

David Silva

With De Bruyne injured it seems Pep’s plan to reduce the minutes for David Silva may have to take a back seat as it’s hard to see anyone apart from David Silva that can take his place.  The hope is that Pep will have no choice but to play him until we see De Bruyne back.  However  the watchout is if that De Bruyne role doesn’t restrict the forays into the box that we saw last season.  While his assist based stats have been up to standard so far in 18/19 his goal threat has been diminished to around De Bruyne level which isn’t a great sign.

De Bruyne tends to supplement these with the odd screamer which is one of the few things not in David Silva’s locker.  Minutes wise it’s been 2 games since coming back from an injury with a goal v Huddersfield and an understandable early substitution.  However it was 90 minutes v Wolves when Pep didn’t really have the luxury of subbing him.

Newcastle (H)
Fulham (H)
Cardiff (A)
Brighton (H)
Liverpool (A)
Burnley (H)

Mane

A very quiet game v Brighton followed a blockbuster start of 3 goals in the first 2 games.  Hard to write him off for that though and he did get 5 bonus points in those first 2 games which is a good sign after only managing 8 all of last season

Leicester (A)
Spurs (A)
Southampton (H)
Chelsea (A)
Man City (H)
Huddersfield (A)

Mkhitaryan

1 fantastic performance with a goal and an assist v Chelsea and 2 pretty ordinary ones in his first 3 games is pretty much par for the course with Mkhitaryan.  We know from his Dortmund days the ability to score and assist is there.   Unfortunately while his assist based underlying stats have been good the goalscoring stats haven’t been great.

However, this is really about fixtures, a fairly decent price and the belief that the Dortmund player and occasional Utd and Arsenal player is consistently in there somewhere.  Certainly Emery has shown faith so far with three 90 minute performances.  That’s saying alot given Emery’s tinkering to date

Great fixture next to transfer him in on

Cardiff (A)
Newcastle (A)
Everton (H)
Watford (H)
Fulham (A)
Leicester (H)

Alli

Last year was the surprising sight of Alli getting more assists (13) than goals (9) and he suddenly had become a more creative force although arguably a less explosive FPL asset.  This season although it’s only a goal and assist to start with in the 3 games his performances and stats have shown a return to a goalscoring emphasis

Watford (A)
Liverpool (H)
Brighton (A)
Huddersfield (A)
Cardiff (H)
West Ham (A)



Walcott

While I imagine some of you reading this will feel that Walcott is quite low in the table it should be noted that he is the highest in his price range and 4th in the value for money.

The issue I have with Walcott is that there are 3 of them

Arsenal Walcott who was an FPL force with incredible numbers

Big Sam Everton Walcott.  Otherwise known as right back number 2 first and foremost.  Right winger a distant second

Marco Silva Walcott.  Undoubtedly a good start with 2 goals and an assist and virtually 90 minutes played in each game.  When you think that 2 of the games had early Everton sending off’s it looks even more impressive.  However looking deeper I would say he was anonymous in GW1 and pretty fortunate in GW3 that Begovic was having a day that even Joe Hart would want to forget.

What I’m trying to say is that it’s a tough one to predict at this point.

However the simple fact is that he’s £6.7m and has great fixtures so how much risk is there?  He’s also a natural replacement for the suspended Richarlison

Huddersfield (H)
West Ham (H)
Arsenal (A)
Fulham (H)
Leicester (A)
Crystal Palace (H)

Pogba

It’s easy to forget with Man Utd seemingly falling apart that Pogba has 20 points already.  Albeit through 2 penalties although that in itself is a pretty handy string to his bow.  It’s also easy to forget that last season was a 6 goal and 13 assist season with a reasonably healthy points per 90.  You can also generally rely on him playing close to the 90 minutes each game which despite the poor relationship rumours with the manager has already been seen this season.

In addition you could also argue that Pogba should have a  more attack minded season given that he really didn’t excel at the defensive side of his game last season and Man Utd look like they will need to score more goals to win games given their defensive frailties so far.

Burnley (A)
Watford (A)
Wolves (H)
West Ham (A)
Newcastle (H)
Chelsea (A)

Bernardo Silva

Like any City midfielder the question of gametime is one that is difficult to predict and although he’s started all 3 games we saw a 60 minute odd substitution v Wolves.  Also he’s been play as a right sided midfielder rather than in the centre which was probably the original thought after the Community Shield.  That not only diminishes his threat but it also makes him an easy sub target for Mahrez or Sterling

Newcastle (H)
Fulham (H)
Cardiff (A)
Brighton (H)
Liverpool (A)
Burnley (H)

Moura

A fantastic 2 goal performance v Man Utd makes it 3 goals in the first 3 games this season.  He does have some gametime worries when Son is back but has been in such strong form it would be hard to see him lose his place if he can keep it up.

He is hard to predict how his performance will continue though given that he’s played limited minutes in the premier league and Spurs in this league compared to Paris in Ligue 1 is a tricky one to translate returns to.

However we are talking about a Spurs attacking midfielder who’s shown good form for a pretty bargain price of £7.1m

Watford (A)
Liverpool (H)
Brighton (A)
Huddersfield (A)
Cardiff (H)
West Ham (A)

Pereyra

The Watford LW has continued his strong finish to last season with 3 goals in the opening 3 games.  Has shown ability and underlying stats have been ok.  The fixtures aren’t helpful though

Spurs (H)
Man Utd (H)
Fulham (A)
Arsenal (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Wolves (A)

Pedro

The issue with Pedro is going to be minutes played as even consistent starts could be diluted by substitutions to get Willian on the pitch.  However he’s made a great start with 2 goals in his first 3 games and his price diminishes the gametime risk as does the next 2 very juicy fixtures

Bournemouth (H)
Cardiff (H)
West Ham (A)
Liverpool (H)
Southampton (A)
Man Utd (H)

Fraser

To be honest I could have done a whole article at this price range given the options if time permitted.  However Fraser has started the season well with a goal and an assist in 3 90 minute performances.  The watchout is that he’s currently producing underlying stats at a rate way over and above anything he’s previously done.  As an entry point fixture of Chelsea away could be better.

Chelsea (A)
Leicester (H)
Burnley (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Watford (A)
Southampton (H)

If you’re looking for player suggestions or general articles see the following:

Top 1k finisher in 17/18  in FPL, Sky and TFF and 15k in Sun Andrew Ferguson

Bandwagons and sinking ships GW4

Joseph Crilleys GW4 Wildcard team

Early thoughts on the FFGeek team

Following 10 top FPL managers teams

Stephen Troops teams in FPL, TFF and Sun DT

The fixture ease schedule for players with good fixtures ahead

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