With our most disappointing players for each team now complete here is our fantasy premier league tips article where we concentrate on each teams top PPM player and give our view on their future prospects. I also say how the individual player performed in the FFGeek team. This article focuses on Arsenal and Aston Villa.
fantasy premier league tips – each teams top Points Per Match player – Part 1
I outline my FPL strategy along with 10 other FFGeek contributors in our new EBook.
Arsenal – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang £11.1m
It’s hard to see this being a relevant article for next season at least given the continued rumours about Aubameyang moving to clubs such as Barcelona at the end of the season given he is entering the final 12 months of his contract.
Aubameyang’s PPM is in stark contrast to a very ordinary set of underlying stats. Aubameyangs ability this season to over perform his underlying stats, something he has no history of doing , is the reason why his PPM looks healthy compared to last season. Has he at 30 suddenly become a better finisher or is the season so far an outlier which will regress and go to the normal levels of roughly matching his xG. His volumes are also down significantly. It’s significant that in my last forwards player rankings article his underlying stats ranked him as 11th out of forwards over the last 10 gameweeks
Arsenal continue to use him as a winger rather than as a CF and although the LB gives the width and therefore allows Aubameyang to move inside it’s hardly the ideal use of his skills.
Secondly Aubameyangs decline has mirrored Arsenals attacking decline and it’s hard to think his drop in underlying stats isn’t the result of this. In xG Arsenal in the 17/18 season Arsenal were 3rd, in 18/19 they were 4th. This season they are 12th. Since Arteta joined they are ranked exactly the same in 12th over his managerial period. There has been no improvement.
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I had Aubameyang in my team 7 times this season for a PPM of 4.9. Below his average PPM of 5.8. I never captained him which seems a waste of his budget. If Arsenal have a good run of fixtures he became the only real option given that no other attacking player had a PPM of 4.0 or over. He was a consistent returner though averaging a goal or assist in 62% of his starts. His 10+ points average of 15% though is quite low. Salah for example is 27% although midfielders do have an advantage with clean sheet and an extra point for a goal.
At best for me he is an option for good Arsenal fixture runs but it depends on the rest of your team whether he is worth trying to shoe horn in at that value especially if you’re wary of captaining him.
Arsenal do have a good fixture run to the end of the season but for me Arsenals attacking problems and Aubameyangs over performance of underlying stats would make me wary of having him in my team again unless the fixtures created a perfect storm especially if the extra game in hand creates some sort of advantage within a gameweek. I would have to be able to squeeze him in without too much damage though.
Aston Villa – Jack Grealish £6.4m
Jack Grealish was head and shoulders above anyone else in PPM terms for Villa with no one else at £4.0m or better. If the word talisman could be used for anyone in the league it would be him.
However although his consistency % is reasonable for the price Grealish over the season was ranked 13th in my last midfield player rankings article. His last 10 gameweeks though his form had definitely dropped off and he was ranked 18th over the previous 10 gameweeks.
Grealish like Aubameyang was always swimming against the tide with Villa 16th in xG. He also had 66 of his 118 or 55% of his points in a 2 spells totalling 9 games. That means when you had him in your FPL team was fairly crucial.
At the moment he is being strongly linked with a number of clubs including Man Utd for next season and this season Villa’s fixtures to the end of the season are pretty mixed although they do have 1 extra fixture due to the EFL final resulting in a PL postponement
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Grealish was one of my success stories getting 50 points in the 10 games I had him for an average 0f 5.0 PPM which was above his average of 4.5 PPM. I didn’t have him in his first scoring patch between GW6-9 but did have him for 24 points between GW18-GW23 which was 6 games where he got 39 points at 6.5 PPM.
With the fixtures and drop of of form I would be surprised if he appears in my team again unless the extra game in hand creates some sort of advantage within a gameweek.
A fixture ease schedule for attacking players
Here’s a graphic where the teams are ranked by the ease of the defences for the remaining outstanding fixtures to the end of the season. Ignore GW36-38 and just look at them as a block for the end of the season which could quite frankly end up in any order
I outline my FPL strategy along with 10 other FFGeek contributors in our new EBook.
Other posts
Best fixtures until the end of the season attackers
Best fixtures to the end of the season defenders
A deep dive on the 10 top FPL managers stats
Andrew Whitfield gradual wildcard
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