fantasy premier league total expected goals to GW11


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Here’s our look at some fantasy premier league total expected goals to GW11. We look at team stats and individual players by position stats

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE TOTAL EXPECTED GOALS TO GW11 

Here’s our fantasy premier league underlying stats review where we look at expected goals (xG) at a team and at an attacking player level to see what insights we can get for future player selection. We also look at expected assists (xA) at a player level. This is at a cumulative level up to GW11. Joseph Crilley reviews the numbers for each gameweek. The gameweek 11 part 1 review and part 2 review you can see here

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened. Remember though we are only 6 games in so it’s difficult to make any accurate predictions from such limited data

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent site understat.com

I’m not going to look at them from a regression basis and compare them to goals and assists. While it can be useful with some players to look at over and under performance against the underlying stats, some players will perform way above or below the expected goals. Kane was a great example last season. If you expected regression you would never have got it as he was a lethal finisher. They should just be looked at as a way of evaluating a team or players goal or assist potential.

TEAM DEFENCE XG

 I’ve provided the xG conceded as a whole ranked by the least to the most. The teams have then been ranked home and away but without me giving the xG conceded for the home and away stats so it’s easier to follow. Now were only 11 games in so 5 or 6 games each home and away isn’t a great set of data as it can be distorted by the fixtures or sending offs etc but it’s a start

xG for attack has been done in the same way

At the moment I’m just presenting data. There will be interpretation of it in the player rankings articles later




Overall RankTeamxGAHome RankAway Rank
1Manchester City6.4521
2Spurs7.3442
3Chelsea10.64113
4Manchester Utd11.4238
5Newcastle United12.25164
6Leicester13.15513
7Huddersfield13.28107
8Southampton13.3899
9WBA13.52126
10Arsenal13.76614
11Liverpool14.27119
12Brighton14.561311
13Burnley15.22717
14Swansea16.56195
15Everton17.101710
16Bournemouth17.211416
17Watford18.432012
18West Ham18.601518
19Stoke18.921815
20C Palace19.07820

TEAM XG ATTACK

TeamxGHome RankAway Rank
Manchester City31.7711
Liverpool23.5832
Man United21.9524
Arsenal21.0046
Spurs18.7755
Leicester15.8287
Watford15.51143
Southampton13.94615
Chelsea13.76108
Everton12.68713
Crystal Palace12.501210
Newcastle Utd12.221311
Stoke11.66917
Swansea10.131119
West Ham9.761612
West Brom9.121516
Brighton8.97209
Bournemouth8.051914
Huddersfield7.401718
Burnley6.541820

PLAYER XG AND XA BY POSITION PER 90 MINUTES PLAYED

I’ve made an arbitary decision that the player must have played 350 minutes to be considered. The stats have not been filtered for gametime security and fitness. That will happen in the player rankings later. The player values are as of Thursday 9th November.

DEFENDER XG 90 RANKING

RankDefenderClubPrice £mxGxA
1MatipLiverpool5.50.190.05
2MilnerLiverpool6.20.140.14
3LovrenLiverpool5.30.140.01
4BaillyMan Utd6.10.130.02
5BritosWatford4.50.130.14
6B DaviesSpurs5.80.120.25
7DannC Palace4.70.120.02
8BellerinArsenal5.90.110.12
9ChristensenChelsea5.40.110.01
10BainesEverton5.80.110.13

DEFENDER XA 90 RANKING

RankDefenderClubPrice £mxGxA
1B DaviesSpurs5.80.120.25
2KolasinacArsenal6.00.050.25
3TrippierSpurs5.70.010.24
4AzpilicuetaChelsea6.70.050.21
5WalkerMan City6.60.010.18
6Van DijkSouthampton5.40.080.18
7HolebasWatford5.00.020.18
8MaguireLeicester5.10.010.17
9CresswellWest Ham5.00.010.15
10BritosWatford4.50.130.14

A few players who didn’t make the cut (xG 90 and xA 90)

Valencia 0.02 and o.02

Otamendi 0.10 and 0.01

Alonso 0.07 and 0.03

Daniels 0.01 and 0.08

MIDFIELDER XG 90 RANKING

RankMidfielderClubPrice £mxGxA
1SterlingMan City8.20.770.46
2SalahLiverpool9.40.690.19
3PogbaMan Utd8.00.500.17
4RicharlisonWatford6.40.490.22
5SaneMan City8.90.480.48
6RamseyArsenal7.00.470.19
7ManeLiverpool9.30.430.20
8ZahaC Palace6.80.400.06
9AlliSpurs9.30.390.20
10SanchezArsenal11.80.350.49
11Son HMSpurs7.90.340.15
12Choupo MotingStoke5.70.330.20
13D SilvaMan City8.50.290.43
14Ox ChamberlinArsenal5.70.270.22
15TadicSouthampton6.40.270.12

MIDFIELDER XA 90 RANKING

RankMidfielderClubPrice £mxGxA
1SanchezArsenal11.80.350.49
2OzilArsenal9.30.180.48
3SaneMan City8.90.480.48
4SterlingMan City8.20.770.46
5SilvaMan City8.50.290.43
6De BruyneMan City10.10.190.37
7MkhitaryanMan Utd8.10.100.34
8MahrezLeicester8.40.220.29
9BruntWBA5.30.010.29
10HazardChelsea10.60.160.28
11MataMan Utd6.90.110.28
12ShaqiriStoke5.90.090.27
13GrayLeicester5.30.050.27
14EriksenSpurs9.70.190.27
15KnockaertBrighton5.70.130.27

Just missed out Gross 0.04 and 0.24





FORWARD XG 90 RANKING

RankForwardClubPrice £mxGxA
1AgueroMan City11.81.030.53
2JesusMan City10.50.920.03
3OkazakiLeicester5.60.770.11
4LukakuMan Utd11.50.740.17
5KaneSpurs12.80.740.11
6MorataChelsea10.30.640.10
7MurrayBrighton5.80.590.01
8LacazetteArsenal10.30.590.09
9SturridgeLiverpool8.00.580.18
10WelbeckArsenal7.30.530.21

 

Just missed out Vardy 0.52 and 0.10

FORWARD XA 90 RANKING

RankForwardClubPrice £mxGxA
1AgueroMan City11.81.030.53
2FirminoLiverpool8.50.280.35
3RashfordMan Utd7.60.310.28
4WelbeckArsenal7.30.530.21
5SturridgeLiverpool8.00.580.18
6LukakuMan Utd11.50.740.17
7PerezNewcastle5.40.140.15
8KingBournemouth7.00.130.15
9GrayWatford6.30.230.14
10RooneyEverton7.30.290.14

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