fantasy premier league – Stephen Toumi continues his struggle to fight against the template

Contributors, Fantasy Premier League

Here’s regular commenter on the site Stephen Toumi with his think differently series.  He goes into gameweek 4 continuing his personal battle to fight against the temptation of the fantasy premier league template

fantasy premier league – Stephen Toumi continues his struggle to fight against the template

We are just three weeks into this young FPL season and already we have seen a move towards running out a template in our starting XI. Prices are swinging wildly, as fantasy manager attempt to work their magic, in order to get players in for the price bounce and upcoming run of fixtures. Wild card is in the air for Gameweek 4, however I was a bit quick to the trigger, so to speak as I activated mine last week, in hopes taking advantage of players in form with some good looking fixtures. Did it work out? Won’t be able to answer that for a few weeks, but I did finish over the weekly average, as I work towards my season goals.

Before we look ahead and “think differently,” let’s take a look back, at Gameweek 3 after the activation of the wild card to see how it went. The first question I asked myself, “Do I need to wild card?” If I were honest with myself, the answer would have been a staunch, “NO!” However, the fear of watching Gameweek 3 from behind the comfort of my couch was something I didn’t have much experience in and really didn’t want to start a trend so early in the 2018/19 FPL season.

Going into the season, I knew I was taking a risk, when I opted not to go with a premium forward. While much of the talk was centred on Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Sergio Aguero, I decided there was more value and points to be had in the midfield, opting to big, while chasing points with Wilfried Zaha and Marko Arnautovic, due to the fact I took a chance on Alexis Sanchez, sucking up more millions that necessary.



Scores of 67 and 66 points were healthy returns, I quickly realised that mistakes had been made when I tried to “get cute” using Sanchez as a differential to start the season. Much like the middle of last season, I knew Sanchez would come back, to do me dirty, as he didn’t travel in Gameweek 2 with Man United.

This begs the question, “Was there enough data to go on, to activate the wild card ahead of Gameweek 3?” Being honest with myself, no there wasn’t, but the fear of not owning was becoming too much had had me constantly worrying, begging the question, “what if?” Going into Gameweek 3, I had 2 free transfers, which should have been enough to provide a bump for the gameweek, transferring out Sanchez and Pascal Groß, while introducing Richarlison and Henrikh Mkhitaryan. Excited by these new players and the fact I had £3.4 ITB, which was burning a hole in my FPL pocket, I started playing with my 15-man squad.

fantasy premier league

The result was a team that borders on being called “template” based on the ownership of Benjamin Mendy, Marcos Alonso, Salah, Aguero and Zaha. All of these players were over 30 TSB%! IT did look to be a formidable team, as well and had a new found confidence ahead of Gameweek 3, as if the stars had aligned and I was set to post the highest overall score for the upcoming week.

Once reality set in and the dust from Gameweek 3 settled, Ederson, Mkhitaryan, Pedro and Aguero didn’t post attacking returns. Richarlison was sent off in the 40′ on a red and Arnautovic hobbled off at the 58′ with a muscle injury. What I was left with, was a a wing and prayer that the Monday night fixture, Manchester United hosting Spurs wouldn’t be a “FATALITY” kill, ala Mortal Kombat.

While the offensive production of Spurs moved the overall weekly average, I did escape with 57 points, just 7-points over the average to give me the first green arrow on the season. Using FPL Statisico, I was 4-points better, had I not activated my wild card, using a 4-4-2 formation. While you can’t judge a wild card on a single week, it will be another 5-6 weeks to see if the wild card paid off this early in the season.

Where does that leave me, as I look ahead to a long run in to the end of 2018? Listening to a podcast yesterday, an idea was floated to introduce Harry Kane, in place of Salah for a quick, two week stretch, as Spurs play hud/CAR starting in GW6, then moving back to Salah in GW8, as Liverpool play hud/CAR. Looking deeper into the numbers, FDR and formations, what if four or five defenders in your starting XI is where we really need to be looking?

Looking at overall points for the top ten defenders and midfielders at £6.5 and under, it’s not surprising to see 70% of the results favor defenders. The only midfielders to make that list, Roberto Pereyra, Steve Cook and James Milner, none of which really strike fantasy managers as “must own” players. Conversely, Marcos Alonso, Andrew Robertson, Benjamin Mendy, Kieran Trippier and Virgil Van Dijk are names that carry heavy ownership in FPL.



While I attempt to preach “patience” in my squad I am looking ahead to upcoming fixture, good runs and potential returns, based on statistics and metrics. Harry Kane has broken the August voodoo hoodoo, returning 17 points in the past few weeks with two goals, an assist and three bonus points. Has the “Kane Train” started to leave the station? Trying not to get left behind?

Between Salah and Kane, a fantasy manager ties up in excess of 25% of their overall budget. This causes constraints with the remaining 13 positions that must account for. If we “think differently” there are some possibilities to consider, if the Kane Train picks up steam and becomes a “must have.”

I am entertaining the idea of moving to a five defender formation, with Aguero and Kane up front. Already owning Alonso, Mendy, Robertson and Aaron Wan-Bissaka, I need just one premium to round out my defensive back line. The target, Kieran Trippier, Spurs. In 2 appearance (166 minutes), Trippier has 17 crosses, 5 chances created, featuring on dead balls, as he picked up his first goal in GW3. Based purely on FDR, Wan-Bissaka and Crystal Palace have great fixtures through GW9, but has shown a great propensity on the attack.

Salah aside, the midfield becomes a hodge podge of average players, none of whom really strike much fear into the hearts of fantasy managers. That said, there have been points scored from the three midfielders I am considering in order to make this bizarre love triangle work, between Salah, Kane and Aguero.

fantasy premier league

As someone mentioned to me it “Feels a bit imbalanced.” To that, I don’t disagree but looking at prices and returns, there is a comforting logic that could be applied to play this style of FPL, as long as defenders continue to push forward, playing as attacking wingers in attack, returning offensive points, more than defensive points.

This potential 15-man squad will limit your options when it comes to formation. Not having a third, viable forward, will mean either a 4-4-2 or a 3-5-2 formation. More importantly, while these four budget midfielders aren’t the best in FPL, they all usually play 90 minutes, giving you the opportunity for FPL points.

Risky? Sure is, going forward I am not sure how comfortable I would feel knowing Salah is the only premium midfielder I own. Depending on FDR, there are a few options available to shift players around to provide the best chance at seeing returns. Will I follow through with this strategy? That is yet to be seen. If Kane returns this weekend at Vicarage Road, I think more, than just 28.5% mangers will be looking to add the Spurs front man to their starting XI.

If you’re looking for player suggestions or general articles see the following:

Top 1k finisher in 17/18  in FPL, Sky and TFF and 15k in Sun Andrew Ferguson

Bandwagons and sinking ships GW4

Joseph Crilleys GW4 Wildcard team

Early thoughts on the FFGeek team

Following 10 top FPL managers teams

Stephen Troops teams in FPL, TFF and Sun DT

The fixture ease schedule for players with good fixtures ahead

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