fantasy premier league transfer tips GW10 – the bandwagons and sinking ships

Here’s our fantasy premier league transfer tips GW10 article where we outline the bandwagons and sinking ships. These are the 4 most transferred in players (bandwagons) and 4 most transferred out players (sinking ships) so far in the FPL gameweek.

fantasy premier league transfer tips GW10 – the bandwagons and sinking ships

On a general note with European games this week early transfers (unless you’re wildcarding) carry an additional injury risk with competing players.

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The Bandwagons

These are the 4 most transferred IN players so far in the gameweek

De Bruyne

GW9 v Palace was the first time that’s the £10.1m Man City midfielder started when he hasn’t returned which is a mark of the consistency of De Bryune.

I imagine some of the transfers in are a catch up to put him back in your FPL team after it was clearly stated by Guardiola that he would be injured in GW8 before the International break.

He’s still the highest FPL points scorer and the highest FPL points per match.  That is backed up by the underlying stats which are at a stupendous level.

They are at such a level compared to his previous seasons that you would expect some sort of leveling off.  He’s currently at a points per match of 8.2 when last season the highest PPM in FPL was Sterling at 6.9.

My only concern over the longer term would be how many goals he could score and rotation.  He’s currently at over double his historic xG despite his shooting volumes being pretty much at his historic average which has shown a maximum goals scored in a season of 8.  Can an player at an FPL captain price feast mainly on assists rather than goals?

Rotation is always going to be an issue with Man City players although you could say that least seasons injury record could mean kid gloves from Pep making him extra susceptible to rotation.  After all he’s already been a sub once and missed 1 game through injury in his first 9.  However you’d counter that by saying the 2 games lost was where he didn’t start so can Pep afford to rotate him with a 6 point defecit to Liverpool.

However in some ways all of the above is by the by.  Given his current form and City’s next 2 fixtures he would be a very dangerous player not to own

GW10 AVL (H)
GW11 SOU (H)
GW12 LIV (A)
GW13 CHE (H)
GW14 NEW (A)
GW15 BUR (A)

Vardy

The paradox with the £9.0m Leicester forward is that his FPL points per match is 6, up from his last season’s pretty respectable 5.1, is excellent yet his underlying stats are absolutely terrible.  I mean truly terrible.  However that may mean absolutely jot to you.  You may, like many successful FPL managers, live by PPM alone in which case ignore the rest of what I’m about to say.

He has currently outperformed his xG of 2.3 goals by 3.7 goals to 6 goals.  Now that’s some over performance.  Although he has shown an ability to over perform his xG historically no one can continue at that level.  It’s made worse by the fact that his shooting volumes are also at an absolute joke low level.

But here’s the thing.  In 17/18 he scored 20 goals and had a still respectable PPM of 4.9 at a pretty similar price with very similar non penalty underlying stats.  However in 17/18 he played 37 games at an average of 88 minutes and in those 20 goals he converted 5 penalties.  With none so far I would suggest there’s going to have to be some serious minimal contact falling over to get to the same level.

His performance against Burnley at the weekend was another master of efficiency with 2 shots and 1 goal.  His season conversion rate is 40%.  His conversion rate last season was 22.8%.  The best conversion rate last season was Martial at 26.6%

All of the above is before I get to Leicester who are hardly an underlying stats juggernaut themselves as they are  19th in xG and 12th in shots per game.

Now as I said plenty of successful FPL managers have no regard for underlying stats so if you fall into that category just put your fingers in your metaphorical ear and go blah blah blah.

Moving back to the positive.  The fixtures are pretty good.

GW10 SOU (A)
GW11 CRY (A)
GW12 ARS (H)
GW13 BHA (A)
GW14 EVE (H)
GW15 WAT (H)

Hudson Odoi

The £6.0m Chelsea LW started the last 2 games and was a sub in GW7 before that.  He’s returned an assist in each game and has a points per match of 6.0.  All at a pretty handy underlying stats level as well and so far it looks like he even may have a bit of a goal threat in him rather than just be an assist deliverer.

Very small amount of data to make an assessment on but I can’t imagine Bayern Munich were interested in buying him without thinking he was going to be a serious player.  £6.0m for a player starting on the left side of a front 3 with some pretty tasty fixtures going forward is a bargain.

GW10 BUR (A)
GW11 WAT (A)
GW12 CRY (H)
GW13 MCI (A)
GW14 WHU (H)
GW15 AVL (H)

Aubameyang

Firstly this was written before Mondays Sheffield United vs Arsenal game.

I could say some of what I said about Jamie Vardy for The Arsenal £11.1m forward although it’s no where near as extreme.  He’s got 7 goals and 1 assist in 8 games scoring or assisting in every game except 1 and with an excellent points per match of 6.9.

While his underlying stats are behind previous seasons it’s not nearly as marked either in shot volumes or xG.  Also his goal conversion rate is 28% vs  last season’s 23%.

The return of Lacazette from injury does create some uncertainty over position.  He could be shunted left where his underlying stats certainly diminish

Here’s a table to show the difference between playing as a forward and last season as an AMC and AML in 18/19.

Not pretty reading although technically in a front 3 where he could be position now it would be a FWL.

The counter argument to all this though is blah blah blah,  He’s Aubameyang and look at those fixtures

GW10 CRY (H)
GW11 WOL (H)
GW12 LEI (A)
GW13 SOU (H)
GW14 NOR (A)
GW15 BHA (H)

The Sinking Ships

These are the 4 most transferred OUT players so far in the gameweek

Pukki

The £7.0m Norwich forward has a points per match of 6.1 and only costs £7.0m.  That’s the 4th best of any forward and the best for his price.  He also plays 90 minutes every game and could be the penalty taker.

However even players with a long and excellent FPL history aren’t going to survive 4 consecutive blanks let alone one new to the PL.  Of those 4 games 2 you could say produced acceptable underlying stats but 2 were terrible.  That’s not end the end of the world but it’s not saying I’m going to get a double figure points haul any moment either.

GW10 MUN (H)
GW11 BHA (A)
GW12 WAT (H)
GW13 EVE (A)
GW14 ARS (H)
GW15 SOU (A)

Son

The £9.7m Spurs midfielder was probably sold partially because he only got 45 minutes v Watford as a result of South Korea’s fixtures in the International break.  His record has been ok with a points per match of 5.1.  2 goals and 3 assists returning in 4 of his 6 starts is no disaster either.  He’s also played a number of games as Harry Kane’s strike partner.

It’s hard to argue that’s he not cheap though and Spurs’ mess is not just defensively either.  They are 15th in xG so far this season and 9th in shots per game.

When the next game is away to Liverpool the transfer trigger finger is bound to get itchy.

GW10 LIV (A)
GW11 EVE (A)
GW12 SHU (H)
GW13 WHU (A)
GW14 BOU (H)
GW15 MUN (A)

Kane

The Spurs forward is £10.9m and you can not be 8th in forwards points per match at that level and survive transfers out even if you’ve returned in a reasonably forgivable 5 of 9 matches.  It’s just not going to cut it.  Those FPL managers looking for positives in the underlying stats aren’t going to find them either unfortunately.

A normal Harry Kane would shoot at pretty much 4 times per 90 minutes.  This Harry Kane is just scraping 3 per 90.  His xG is 0.42 compared to 0.60 last season and 0.78 in his 30 goal 17/18 when he took over 5 shots per 90.

Like I said for Son above for those who’ve kept the faith and held on for the Brighton and Watford games where he blanked in both,  away to Liverpool is the perfect exit justification.

GW10 LIV (A)
GW11 EVE (A)
GW12 SHU (H)
GW13 WHU (A)
GW14 BOU (H)
GW15 MUN (A)

Mahrez

The £8.7m Man City midfielder missed out altogether v Palace in GW9 after being taken off at the FPL nightmare minute of 59 in GW8.  All this disappointment came after his man of the match performance vs Everton in GW7.  Although I can’t back this up stats wise I feel anecdotally that a players future minutes is often inversely proportional to the praise they are currently receiving from Pep.

The one thing going for Mahrez is that Bernardo Silva who is the favoured RW option is possibly going to be banned for his tweet to Mendy.  I would be surprised if there’s leniency especially given the recent racism issues.  That should mean Mahrez is the obvious replacement.  I believe Bernardo has until today to respond so I imagine a verdict will arrive shortly after.

GW10 AVL (H)
GW11 SOU (H)
GW12 LIV (A)
GW13 CHE (H)
GW14 NEW (A)
GW15 BUR (A)

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Geek note: If you join our Patreon site you will get access to an FPL contributor tracker team which combines the contributors individual teams each week to show their favourite players, transfers and captains. It will always be completed on a Friday/Saturday in a normal gameweek. There will also be an accompanying spreadsheet so you can drill down further.

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