fantasy premier league transfer tips GW11 – analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers


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Here’s our fantasy premier league transfer tips GW11 article where we analyse the teams of 10 top FPL managers. These 10 managers have not finished outside the overall rank of the top 10k in the last 3 seasons. Considering how variable the last 3 years have been this is remarkable consistency and shows an ability to adapt strategy in different seasons. It also gives you a view other than my own on strategy and player selection.

fantasy premier league transfer tips GW11 – analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers

Introduction

If the article is too long there’s a combined FPL managers team for the top 10 FPL managers analysed towards the end of the article.

Firstly, there are 9 new managers in the 10 this season. The only repeat manager I’ve found again finished in the top 100 last season

The criteria I’ve always been looking for is managers who’ve finished in the top 10k for the last 3 years when FPL has become considerably harder due to the amount of people playing and the information available.

It took me a long time to track down 10 managers who’ve been so consistent and I imagine it will get harder and harder

The 10 managers stats

These managers are incredible and every bit as impressive as last season.

1. The overall average finishing overall rank of the top 10 managers in the last 3 seasons is 3,800

2. The top 10 FPL managers have not been out of the top 10k in the last 3 seasons (ie 30 times playing)

3. 3 of the 10 have finished in the top 1,000 in the last 3 seasons

4. 2 of the 10 have finished in the top 100 in the last 3 seasons




Gameweek 10 review

A mixed gameweek for the 10 managers with 5 getting a red arrow but a reasonable good rank improvement.

The average score of the managers in GW10 was 56 after taking points deductions for extra transfers into account. That’s 7 points and 14% better than the game average of 49. High score of the 10 was 71. The low score was 46

The average overall rank of the top 10 FPL managers is 594k. That’s improved by 55k from last week. The best overall rank is 258k and the lowest 1,246k. It’s important to get a perspective though on OR at this stage. Despite their being nearly 1 million in overall rank between the managers there’s only 37 points. That’s 27k per average point. We’ve seen that 37 points can be wiped out in 1 gameweek. In this gameweek alone the spread was 25 points.  OR is still very misleading.

The average total points are 539

The average team value is £102.8m.

You can see my score and rank in the early FFGeek team article which I will do today hopefully.  You can see my GW10 team selection article here

The combined total of individual players

I’ve generally only included where there is a minimum of a player in 3 out of the 10 FPL managers teams

Goalkeeper/Defence by player

Pope and Soyuncu are in 8 of the FPL managers teams

Alexander-Arnold and Lundstram are in 7 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Button, Otamendi and Rico are 5 of the 10 managers teams

Tomori is in 4 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Digne, Robertson and Van Dijk are in 3 of the 10 managers teams

Goalkeeper/Defence by team

Liverpool GK/Defs are represented 13 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Burnley GK/Defs are represented 9 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Leicester are represented 8 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Sheffield are represented 7 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Brighton are represented 6 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Man City and Bournemouth are represented 5 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Chelsea are represented 4 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Midfielders

Sterling is in 10 of the FPL managers teams

Mount and De Bruyne are in 8 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Dendoncker is in 6 of the FPL managers teams

Salah is in 5  of the 10 FPL managers teams

Cantwell and Hudson Odoi are in 3 of the FPL managers teams

Hayden and Maddison are in 2 of the FPL managers teams

Forwards

Abraham is in 9 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Pukki and Wilson are in 5 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Aubameyang and Connolly are in 3 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Vardy is in 2 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Gameweek 10 captain choice

8 of the 10 FPL managers went with Sterling

2 of the 10 FPL managers went with Wilson

The FFGeek poll for the GW10 captain choice was 40% Sterling, 27% De Bruyne and 19% Aguero

Formations

6 managers played 3-4-3

2 played 4-3-3

1 played 3-5-2

1 played 4-4-2

Wildcards and Chips

none of the managers used their wildcard this week. 5 have now used the wildcard in total and none have used a chip.

Transfers

6 of the managers made transfers, 4 carried over a free transfer.

Transfers in

No one was transferred in more than once

Transfers out

Pukki and Cantwell were both transferred out twice

No one else was transferred out more than once

The top 10k overall rank vs the 10 FPL managers

Unfortunately the excellent site FPL discovery isn’t going this season.  However the livefpl.net does a version which isn’t as extensive but is still very helpful.  Live FPL is a must view though for live FPL ranks and live league ranks and I’d recommend anyone to use it on match days.

Here I compare the 15 most popular players in the top 10k to their % owned by the 10 top FPL managers and show the difference.  Remember the make up of the top 10k will change week to week which is why I’ve left this to now.  Hopefully now it will be meaningful and stable.

PlayerTop 10k %10 top FPL %10 top FPL% – top 10k%
Button365014
Pope288052
Lundstram66704
Kelly4720-27
Alexander Arnold407030
Robertson30300
Rico275023
De Bruyne77803
Mount608020
Mane4710-37
Sterling4210058
Salah285022
Abraham669024
Aguero330-33
Vardy3320-13

From this Pope and Sterling offer the 10 top managers the most potential for advancement given the differences and Mane and Aguero are the biggest threats.

The template

I use the 10 managers as a proxy for serious managers teams and have a basic rule of thumb that if 7 of the 10 managers have a player or a team defence then I will seriously consider getting that player in.

Here’s the template on that basis. The difficulty with tracking the template is that you’re 1 game behind it as you obviously can’t see what their transfers are leading up to the gameweek opening.

1 Liverpool defender – Alexander Arnold

Leicester defender – Soyuncu

Pope

Sterling

Mount

De Bruyne

Abraham

That above is the core template.

Lundstram you could also count as well as he fits the criteria technically. Whether you think he will be benched enough not to be a threat is the question you need to ask yourself.

I haven’t counted the Brighton defence as it’s made up significantly by a non playing £4.0m GK.

It’s a strong template at the moment with 8 players including Lundstram. That means there are 7 players as difference makers and permanent bench players available.

One managers team

Here’s the leading manager of the 10.  His overall rank is 258k on 554 points.  His last 3 seasons overall ranks are 4k, 1k and 6k.

fantasy premier league transfer tips GW11

He has 7 of the 8 template players in Alexander Arnold, Lundstram, Soyuncu, De Bruyne, Mount, Sterling and Abraham

He has 1 template replacement player in Ryan for Pope

His permanent bench players are Dendoncker and Button.

That leaves 5 difference makers in Aubameyang, Wilson, Maddison, Rico and Otamendi.

This week his difference makers in Maddison and Rico off the bench plus the right captain pick in Sterling saw him get a 70k green arrow.

The combined 10 top FPL managers teams

Here’s a team which tries to make a combination from the most represented players. Please note that it is meant to be a menu of players to help you choose your transfer rather than a realistic team and it’s value is not necessarily achievable. It’s about £104.2m




fantasy premier league transfer tips GW11

That’s it. Hope you found it useful

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4 thoughts on “fantasy premier league transfer tips GW11 – analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers”

  1. Leaning towards Martial. He’s OOP playing as a striker and Man United have good fixtures plus little rotation risk if uninjured. They nearly top Geek’s fixture ease list.

    I have to sell Auba to fund this and he’s been disappointing in the last 3 gameweeks.

  2. Willian was also a thought but Pulisic’s impact may have created a rotation situation at CFC plus MU fixtures going with Martial

  3. Interesting article – thanks.

    I am surprised at Dendonker still featuring in some teams with a PPM of 1.9. There are better bench warmers. And I think that the Pukki / Auba / Wilson owners might be swapping to Vardy in the next GW or so given his form and fixtures.

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