Here’s our fantasy premier league transfer tips GW28 article where we outline the bandwagons and sinking ships. These are the 4 most transferred in players (bandwagons) and 4 most transferred out players (sinking ships) so far in the FPL gameweek.
fantasy premier league transfer tips GW28 – the bandwagons and sinking ships
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Introduction
During this article I talk about a blank GW31. You can read the detail here in my blanks and doubles article.
The Bandwagons
These are the 4 most transferred IN players so far in the gameweek
Bruno Fernandes
The £8.2m Man Utd midfielder got his first double digit haul 14 points haul vs Watford with a penalty and an assist in the 3-0 win over Watford.
It was an impressive 3 shot 4 key pass 0.89 xG and 0.54 xA performance. He has played principally as a CAM which is a positive as he could play the Pogba double pivot role. In this game v Watford he played in a roaming free CAM role. He also had a pretty dominant role at set pieces and if he can keep penalty duties that’s a massive boost as United’s fast pace counter attack does seem to draw alot of penalties in. Pogba and Rashford have been the penalty takers but when we will see either of them on the pitch is an unknown.
This game was certainly a step forward in creativity for Fernandes but the 2 games before were completely at odds with this with little creativity and again in shot selection he still has a major problem. If you remove the penalty then he’s taken 9 shots at an average xG of 0.04. So the average player would take 25 shots to score at that level.
There’s no doubt his record at Sporting was fantastic. In the 19/20 season before the transfer to United he played 17 games with 8 goals and 7 assists at a goal or assist every 100 minutes which is incredible. So he has the talent it’s just how it translates to the PL.
It’s only 3 games in and 2 were pretty ordinary outputs so it’s early to judge him either way in my mind. I guess the question for most managers is whether you get him or the slightly cheaper CF playing midfielder in £8.0m Martial.
The fixtures are pretty mixed and certainly you’d question the entry point given the next 3 games. However United’s counter attacking style has actually been more productive against the traditional top 6 sides. The fixtures after GW33 are excellent
GW28 EVE (A)
GW29 MCI (H)
GW30 TOT (A)
GW31 SHU (H) (potential blank)
GW32 BHA (A)
Aubameyang
This is a bit of a surprise given that he has no fixture in GW28. I know some managers like to beat price rises but still?
Anyway, 2 lethal finishes from 2 shots for the £10.9m Arsenal forward in the win over Everton. 17 goals this season is not bad for a forward who seems to have settled in to the attacking midfield left role rather than a striker. To be fair he’s able to play centrally quite a significant amount of the time as the left full back, either Kolasinac or Saka is encouraged to play in a very advanced wide role with Xhaka ending up playing more like a LB.
The thing about Aubameyang though is that he’s now over taken Danny Ings as the player who has out performed his xG more than anyone else in the league. He’s scored 17 goals at an xG of 12.1. Now if that was Eden Hazard or De Bruyne I wouldn’t blink an eye but in the previous 6 seasons Aubameyang has only beaten his xG once and that was in 2014/15 with Dortmund and it was only just. Also this is a guy who’s 30 so it’s not the result of an improvement curve. This is the finished article. A world class finished article granted.
So if you believe in actual returns rather than underlying stats then you will just be saying whatever but otherwise we could be seeing a bit of a slowdown.
The fixtures after the blank GW28 are excellent though. He also has penalty duties.
GW28 None
GW29 WHU (H)
GW30 BHA (A)
GW31 SOU (A)
GW32 NOR (H)
Jamie Vardy
It’s not often you see a guy who hasn’t returned a goal or assist in 5 previous games in the most transferred in section. That’s the case this week with £9.7m Leicester Forward Jamie Vardy.
That’s the attraction at the moment of having the 2 worst defences as your next opponents in Norwich and Aston Villa. Watford and Brighton after that don’t do much harm to the cause either.
His underlying stats in recent games haven’t helped belief in an upcoming upturn. He’s never been a volume shooter like Aguero anyway but in the 6 games before GW27 he only took 6 shots. That’s how bad it had become. We did see an upturn vs Man City though with 4 shots at an xG of 0.45.
However over the season his underlying stats in my forward player rankings for GW27 article still had him 5th overall so it’s disappointing but not disastrous.
Lets not kid ourselves though this is a gamble based on fixtures and some scintillating previous season form as opposed to the recent form. He has penalty duties btw.
GW28 NOR (A)
GW29 AVL (H)
GW30 WAT (A)
GW31 BHA (H) (possible blank)
GW32 EVE (A)
GW33 CRY (H)
Richarlison
Another impressive display with a goal and 6 points vs Arsenal for the Everton midfielder playing as Calvert Lewin’s striker partner in a 4-4-2 formation.
He’s on an impressive run with 4 goals and an assist in his last 5 starts. His overall underlying stats are good. He’s generally being ranked around 10th out of midfielders in my player rankings articles but like Aubameyang he has significantly outperformed his expected goals although not to the same extent. However he did do this to a lesser extent last season and he is an undoubted improving young player.
The main argument against Richarlison though is the fixtures. They are difficult. Everton do have an advantage in that they only need Spurs to beat Norwich to have a game in the potential big blank week of GW31 but still how much of a mitigation that is against the fixtures ahead is questionable
GW28 MUN (H)
GW29 CHE (A)
GW30 LIV (H)
GW31 NOR (A)
GW32 LEI (H)
GW33 TOT (A)
The Sinking Ships
These are the 4 most transferred OUT players so far in the gameweek
Aguero
When you cost £12.0m and haven’t scored in your last 3 and haven’t got to 80 minutes in 2 of those games, throw in a penalty miss for good measure and then you’re going to be transferred out no matter how much credit you have in the bank. Add to it the fact that the Man City forward is managed by someone notorious for rotation which makes him a difficult captain choice and you really have a difficult situation.
However make no bones about it and ignore the last few blanks. If Aguero was guaranteed decent minutes every week he would be unstoppable. The guy has it all. Great shot volumes, great xG, even decent xA. And maybe even penalty duties? It’s only the minutes that are the problem.
However a blank in GW28 is a pretty good reason to lose patience. The fixtures after that and a difficult UCL game against Real don’t help the situation either.
There has been some speculation about a DGW in gameweek 29 to avoid a potential log jam in the rest of the season. I imagine this will be announced this week which might make people hold off temporarily
GW28 None
GW29 MUN (A)
GW30 BUR (H)
GW31 CHE (A) possible blank
GW32 LIV (H)
Lundstram
There can’t be many £4.0m defenders who have been as successful as the Sheffield United FPL defender but playing as an attacking midfielder. However 4 appearances on the bench in the last 4 gameweeks plus a blank gameweek this week have made it an impossible case to hold any longer
For those who had him from the start and off the bench at the right times it’s been an incredible ride
GW28 None
GW29 NOR (H)
GW30 NEW (A)
GW31 MUN (A)
GW32 TOT (H)
Grealish
It’s been a pretty admirable campaign for the £6.7m Aston Villa midfielder. 7 goals and 7 assists in his first 25 games and a PPM of 4.6 is pretty decent to say the least.
However add in a blank GW28, some really tough fixtures and the memory of a very quiet 1 low value shot and key pass game against Southampton and the transfer out becomes very tempting.
GW28 None
GW29 LEI (A)
GW30 CHE (H)
GW31 NEW (A)
GW32 WOL (H)
GW33 LIV (A)
GW34 MUN (H)
De Bruyne
It’s possible to look at the £10.8m Man City midfielder as a guy who has a blank in GW28 some tricky fixtures and then a likely blank in GW31 and justify a transfer out. Strictly speaking he’s also not really pulling his price weight in my player rankings article although he regularly out performs underlying stats and he’s one of the few players you can say this is an irrelevance. After all his PPM is 6.8 with only Salah having a better one as a midfielder with decent minutes.
Certainly for those FPL managers who like to take short term risks with a “hop off and hop back on” strategy to some of the premium players then it would be an understandable strategy. He could be a captain potential vs Burnley in GW30 due to other fixtures although that game does precede the 2nd leg vs Real Madrid so who knows what team Guardiola will put out v Burnley.
GW28 None
GW29 MUN (A)
GW30 BUR (H)
GW31 CHE (A) possible blank
GW32 LIV (H)
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