fantasy premier league transfer tips GW29 – the bandwagons and sinking ships


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Here’s our fantasy premier league transfer tips GW29 article where we outline the bandwagons and sinking ships. These are the 4 most transferred in players (bandwagons) and 4 most transferred out players (sinking ships) so far in the FPL gameweek.

fantasy premier league transfer tips GW29 – the bandwagons and sinking ships

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Introduction

During this article I talk about a blank GW31. You can read the detail here in my blanks and doubles article and my article monitoring the GW31 fixtures this week

The Bandwagons

These are the 4 most transferred IN players so far in the gameweek




Aubameyang

The Arsenal £11.0m forward was a bit of a surprise in the top 4 transfers in last week when he had no fixture.  I guess this week those who dropped him for the blank are tempted by the fixture at home to West Ham.  Interestingly he has the least generous anytime goalscorer odds this week as you can see in our captain poll article this week.

To be equal top goal scorer of 17 goals this season with only the benefit of 1 penalty is some acheivement.  Made better by the fact that his main position has been a notional attacking midfield left role rather than a CF. The system allows him to drift inside though as the LB is encouraged to play in a very advanced wide role with Xhaka ending up playing more like a LB as cover.

The concern with Aubameyang is the he leads all players in terms of how much he’s out performed his xG.  He’s scored 17 goals but only has 12.1 xG.  He also has no history of outperforming his xG either.  There could be a correction at some stage which  would see his returns slow.  It’s not helped by the fact that his shooting volumes aren’t massively high although he is generally know for having good shooting locations which help offset this.

The one thing you can’t deny though is that the next 3  fixtures are excellent and he is really the obvious player at Arsenal to benefit.  There’s also still chat that Man City v Arsenal which was postponed in GW28 for the EFL final could go into GW29 in order to avoid Man City ending up with a fixture with no place to put it.  That would give Man City and Arsenal a double gameweek.  No announcement yet just various chat.

They have on Monday beat Portsmouth in the FA Cup 5th round so Arsenal now have no fixture in GW31.

Does have penalty duties.

GW29 WHU (H)
GW30 BHA (A)
Blank
GW32 NOR (H)

Bruno Fernandes

The £8.3m Man Utd midfielder has now posted 2 consecutive FPL double figure point hauls.  Add to the fact that he appears to have penalty duties as well as a decent share of corners and free kicks and you have a pretty attractive transfer proposition.

If you were trying to present a counter argument you’d say 1 goal v Watford was a penalty and the other v Everton really should have been saved. Also his non penalty xG and xA so far though are nothing to write home about and while he has great shooting volumes that is because he tends to shoot from anywhere which looks pretty wasteful at times.

There’s no doubt his record at Sporting was fantastic. In the 19/20 season before the transfer to United he played 17 games with 8 goals and 7 assists at a goal or assist every 100 minutes which is incredible. So he has the talent it’s just how it translates to the PL.

Certainly his all action style, plus playing as a CAM  and having penalties and set pieces makes him a pretty lively comparison to a slightly cheaper but fairly static Martial for your Man Utd attacking option.

The fixtures are pretty mixed. However United’s counter attacking style has actually been more productive against the traditional top 6 sides. The fixtures after GW33 are excellent

There’s a decent chance of a blank in GW31 by the way which we will know this week.

GW29 MCI (H)
GW30 TOT (A)
GW31 SHU (H) (potential blank)
GW32 BHA (A)

Diogo Jota

The Wolves £6.3m forward has collected 28 points in 2 games and looked outstanding.  It’s worth noting that the 28 points in the last 2 games are the same as he collected between GW15 and GW26.  A run that saw 6 consecutive starts that he blanked in.

So is this sudden resurgence something that can continue or a flash in the pan.  While he obviously won’t continue at 14 points per game his underlying stats suggest that he can be productive when on the pitch.  His average minutes of 71 over the course of the season have been what’s let him down.  His xG at 0.53 per 90 and his shooting volume at just under 3 are all good pointers.  He’s also got an xG of 10 compared to goals of 6 so you’d be expecting a change of fortune there.

There’s also a pretty tasty run of fixtures coming and a guaranteed GW31 fixture

GW29 BHA (H)
GW30 WHU (A)
GW31 BOU (H)
GW32 AVL (A)
GW33 ARS (H)

Raul Jimenez

Jota’s strike partner is the more expensive £8.0m Jimenez who has in contrast been a model of consistency this season.  Despite Wolves Europa League presence he’s only not started 1 game this season and has only once gone more than 2 starts without returning a goal or assist.  His PPM is a healthy 5.2 and he’s 3rd for forwards in total points.

He also has a creative element which can bring in assists as well.  Only Firmino has more assists as an FPL forward and no forward who’s played 1100 minutes or more has a better xA90 than Jimenez

As I said above there’s also a pretty tasty run of fixtures coming and a guaranteed GW31 fixture

GW29 BHA (H)
GW30 WHU (A)
GW31 BOU (H)
GW32 AVL (A)
GW33 ARS (H)

The Sinking Ships

These are the 4 most transferred OUT players so far in the gameweek




Jamie Vardy

A surprise undisclosed injury and the fact that prior to GW28 he hadn’t returned a goal or assist for 5 games makes it pretty easy to work out why the £9.8m Leicester forward is top of the transferred out tables.

However Rodgers after being so silent on the GW28 injury has come out and said he will be fit for GW29.

His underlying stats in games prior to GW29 haven’t helped belief in an upcoming upturn. In the 6 games before GW27 he only took 6 shots. There was an upturn vs Man City though with 4 shots at an xG of 0.45.

There are definite reasons to sell.  It’s just whether you do it before the worst defence in the league of Aston Villa is up next.  That’s the main question.

He has penalty duties btw.

GW29 AVL (H)
GW30 WAT (A)
GW31 BHA (H) (possible blank)
GW32 EVE (A)
GW33 CRY (H)

Abraham 

The £7.6m Chelsea striker has an ankle injury with no return date at the moment.  The 19 minutes played in GW27 was obviously a false dawn and he completely missed the plum GW28 game v Bournemouth.

It looks like £6.5m Giroud will be the replacement.

GW29 EVE (H)
GW30 AVL (A)
GW31 MCI (H) possible blank
GW32 WHU (A)
GW33 WAT (H)

Ings

The £7.2m Southampton forward has now returned a single goal and no assists in the last 6 gameweeks.  2 of the gameweeks saw him benched in what seem to be pro-active moves to avoid any injury problems which have plagued him in previous seasons.  This run was made the more painful with the last 2 fixtures being Villa and West Ham which saw a blank v Villa and a benching in GW28 v West Ham.

In those 6 games the only poor performances were the Burnley and Wolves game.  But that just leaves 2 benchings and 2 good games which with the lack of production is definitely going to end in transfers out.

Further more before Aubameyang took over the mantle from Ings as the player who had most out performed his xG when he has no history of being able to do so.  That did point to a risk of a slow down

All the above is well and good it’s just whether you transfer out before the next 2 excellent fixtures rather than the obvious blank GW31 which has resulted from Arsenal progressing to the FA Cup 6th round

GW29 NEW (H)
GW30 NOR (A)
GW31 Blank
GW32 WAT (A)

Traore

As 2 of his Wolves colleagues make the bandwagons selection £5.9m Traore is on the sinking ships list.  Still if you’ve blanked in the last 4 gameweeks and 2 involved being benched and even when you’ve played you don’t get to 80 minutes plus you have an orange flag due to  shoulder dislocations then you’re going to be sold.

He’s some one who looks a lot better on the TV than the stats he tends to generate but the transfers out are probably as much about securty of starts going forward with the gametime risk and the injury risk.

There is though a pretty tasty run of fixtures coming and a guaranteed GW31 fixture

GW29 BHA (H)
GW30 WHU (A)
GW31 BOU (H)
GW32 AVL (A)
GW33 ARS (H)

Other posts

Analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers

Early thoughts on the FFGeek team

Monitoring the FA Cup results to determine blank GW31

FPL gameweek review GW28

FFGeek captain  and transfer polls GW29

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1 thought on “fantasy premier league transfer tips GW29 – the bandwagons and sinking ships”

  1. Sorry for ruining Ings. Bad run started when I bought him, after holding off for ages because he ALWAYS lets me down whenever I own him.

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