fantasy premier league transfer tips GW30 – analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers


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Here’s our fantasy premier league team tips GW30 article where we analyse the teams of 10 top FPL managers. These 10 managers have not finished outside the overall rank of the top 10k in the last 3 seasons. Considering how variable the last 3 years have been this is remarkable consistency and shows an ability to adapt strategy in different seasons. It also gives you a view other than my own on strategy and player selection. We also look at what the 10 managers appear to be doing for the doubles and blanks.

fantasy premier league transfer tips GW30 – analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers




If the article is too long there’s a combined FPL managers team for the top 10 FPL managers analysed towards the end of the article.

Firstly, there are 9 new managers in the 10 this season and I’m delighted to say that one of them is our own FFGeek contributor Keith Spencer. You can find Keith on twitter here by the way Keith’s last 3 years history are 17/18 (3,940), 16/17 ( 325) and 15/16 (9,280).

We’ve also added Paul Williams to the FFGeek team who is also part of the 10 top managers. His history is 17/18 (412), 16/17 ( 1,382) and 15/16 (7,164). See his latest article here

The criteria I’ve always been looking for is managers who’ve finished in the top 10k for the last 3 years when FPL has become considerably harder due to the amount of people playing and the information available.

It took me hours and hours to track down 10 managers who’ve been so consistent and my opinion after doing so is that there are probably only 20 or so in the world that qualify.

The 10 managers stats

These managers are unbelievable and every bit as impressive as last season.

1. The overall average finishing overall rank of the top 10 managers in the last 3 seasons is 3,667

2. The top 10 FPL managers have not been out of the top 10k in the last 3 seasons (ie 30 times playing)

3. 7 of the 10 have finished in the top 1,000 in the last 3 seasons

Gameweek 29 review

A bad week for the 10 FPL managers. Only 3 of the 10 had a green arrows.

The average score of the managers in GW29 was 42 taking into account point deductions for extra transfers. That’s 2 points and 5 % higher than the game average of 40. High score of the 10 was 57 -4. The low score was 35. A relatively small spread of 18 even for a low scoring gameweek.

The average overall rank of the top 10 FPL managers is 57k, a worsening of rank from last week of 3k. The best overall rank is now around the top 500 and the lowest 269k.

The average total points are 1,754

The average team value is £105.1m

You can see my score and rank in the early FFGeek team article which I’ll do today (Monday).

The combined total of individual players

I’ve included where there is a minimum of a player in 3 out of the 10 FPL managers teams

Goalkeeper/Defence by player

Doherty is in 9 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Wan Bissaka is in 7 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Fabianski is in 6 of the 10 managers teams

Robertson and Alexander Arnold are in 5 of the 10 managers teams

Bednarek and Pereira are in 4 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Allison, Shaw, Kolasinac, Button and Hamer are in 3 of the FPL managers teams

Goalkeeper/Defence by team

Liverpool GK/Defs are represented 13 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Wolves GK/Defs are represented 11 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

C Palace, West Ham and Leicester GK/Defs are represented 7 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Brighton and Southampton GK/Defs are represented 4 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Man Utd, Arsenal and Huddersfield GK/Defs are represented 3 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Midfielders

Salah is in 10 of the FPL managers teams

Pogba is in 9 of the FPL managers teams

Son HM is in 6 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Anderson is in 5 of the FPL managers teams

Mane is in 4 of the FPL managers teams

Riacharlison, Maddison and Sterling are in 2 of the 10 managers teams

Forwards

Jimenez is in 6 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Aguero, Vardy and Rashford are in 4 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Higuain is in 3 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Rondon, Kamara and Barnes are in 2 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Gameweek 29 captain choice

3 of the 10 FPL managers went with Pogba

2 of the managers each went with Salah and Sterling

1 of the managers each went with Hazard, Higuain and Aguero

No FFGeek poll this week to compare.

Formations

Not done this week sorry.

Wildcards, chips, transfers and hits

1 of the managers has used their 2nd wildcard

2 have used their triple captain chip.

None have used the free hit or bench boost chip.

Transfers in and out

I only summarise the transfers when a player is transferred in more than once.

7 of the 10 managers made a transfer.

Transfers in

Higuain was transferred in by 3 managers

Sterling and Fabianski were transferred in by 2 managers.

No one else was transferred in more than once

Transfers out

Aubameyang was transferred out by 5 managers

Son and Patricio were transferred out by 2 managers

No one else was transferred out more than once

Hits

4 managers took a 4 point deduction for an extra transfer.

Blanks and doubles strategy

Obviously it’s impossible to know what’s going on in their minds exactly.

However there are 8 teams that play in the blank weeks of GW31 and GW33.

They are Liverpool, Everton, Chelsea, Bournemouth, Burnley, Huddersfield, Leicester and West Ham.

10 of the 13 transfers were players from those teams.

To me that’s a sign they are following the strategy of preparing for GW31 using free transfers or hits rather than using a chip. Then they are likely to free hit in 32

The top 10k overall rank vs the 10 FPL managers

The schedule shows the players in the top 10k overall rank teams percentage wise vs the 10 top FPL managers I follow.

GKsTop 10k10 top FPL managers
Fabianski4460
Ederson15n/a
Alisson1230
Patrício1510
Foster11n/a
Boruc11n/a
Etheridge1010
Guaita9n/a
DEFs
Robertson7450
Doherty6290
Wan Bissaka4670
Alexander-Arnold3150
Shaw2230
van Dijk20n/a
Pereira2040
Bednarek1840
David Luiz1810
Kolasinac1630
Digne1420
Pereira1240
MIDs
Pogba9290
Salah86100
Son4660
Felipe Anderson3250
Sterling2720
Mané2740
Hazard2110
Fraser9n/a
Richarlison920
Maddison920
FWDs
Jiménez7960
Agüero6240
Rashford4940
Rondón2020
Vardy1340
Higuaín1130
Barnes1020

The top 10k average score was 44 compared to the 10 top managers average of 42.

I use 30% as a rule of thumb as a significant variation between the two player sets.

No player fits that criteria of difference

All the information is provided by the truly fantastic free site FPL discovery.

So the 10 manager template is very similar to the top 10k one.

The combined 10 top FPL managers teams

Here’s a team which tries to make a combination from the most represented players. Please note that it is meant to be a menu of players to help you choose your transfer rather than a realistic team and it’s value is nothing like achievable.

fantasy premier league transfer tips GW30

So who’s worth considering as essential?

I define this by either 70% of the top 10k own a player or defensive team or 7 of the 10 top FPL managers own him

Liverpool defence (GK/Def represented 12 times of the 10 FPL managers)

West Ham defence (GK/Def represented 7 times of the 10 FPL managers)

Leicester defence (GK/Def represented 7 times of the 10 FPL managers)

Salah (owned by 10 of the 10 managers)

Pogba (owned by 9 of the 10 FPL managers)

Plus maybes

Wan Bissaka (owned 10 of the 10 top FPL managers but is often a bench player so maybe avoidable)

Jimenez (owned by 79% of the top 10k and 6 of the 10 top managers) – doesn’t fit the seemingly used blanks and doubles strategy so could be eased out soon.

Doherty (owned by 9 of the 10 FPL managers ) – doesn’t fit the seemingly used blanks and doubles strategy so could be eased out soon.

So that’s 5 essentials and 3 maybes. This leaves room for 7 differentials/bench two pointers.

Focus on 1 managers team

This week we look at one of the lower scores.

Here’s his points this week:



fantasy premier league transfer tips GW30

He scored 35 which was a poor week comparatively. He lost 3k in OR to 12k.  His team value is £105.9m.  His last 3 seasons are 774, 629 and 6k.

He has all the 5 essentials above of Liverpool defence, West Ham defence,  Salah,  Pogba and Leicester defence. He also has maybes of Doherty and Wan Bissaka but not Jimenez. His bench players are Kamara and Chambers plus the GK bench of Button.

His template replacement player for Jimenez is Vardy.  His 4 remaining differentials are Almiron, Son, Mane, Aguero.  The 4 of them blanked.  Even if you cover the template as he did pretty well if all 4 differentials blank then you’re going to see a red arrow.

He has 7 players who are guaranteed fixtures in GW31 meaning he can have 9 starters for that gameweek.

Hope you found the above useful

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14 thoughts on “fantasy premier league transfer tips GW30 – analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers”

  1. Interesting stuff. I’m following the transfer trends of the ten managers followed here. I can’t have the Leicester defence though. Rodgers is a pussy.

  2. Geek -great article. Always the one I enjoy most each week.

    Can I clarify … you mention that the top ten managers have not finished out of the top 10k in the last three years and have an average finishing rank of 3667..which is indeed outstanding.

    ..however you state that the performance this season is equally impressive .. when their current average rank is only 57k.. so are they severely under performing or is it normal to be at that level prior to the use of the chips in the double and blank weeks ??

  3. Hi Andrew, I think that any season that you are in the top 30k for example is a good one, you will never find a season that the average rank of the top 10 managers is less than top 10k , that is why Geek wrote in the beginning of the season that there is only around 20 managers all over the world that finished 3 consecutive years in the top 10k, that means that most of them (the ones the Geek follow) will not finish again in the top 10k for the 4th consecutive year, hope I am I am made it clear

    • I have finished in the top 10K for the last three seasons and top 30K for the last 6 seasons. If I finish in the top 10K again this season, (currently 38K all chips intact) could I be considered for this article next season?

      • This is the one I could be in. Couple of top 10k, five inside 20k, nothing shameful with the worst being a 60k.
        You could call it ‘unexceptional managers I humor’.
        ‘You too could pilfer your cash mini league every year.’

  4. Hi Geek!
    Great work as always!
    I have seen that in the section you compare defenders %(the top 10k vs…) Pereira is twice with Different percentages.

    I see WHU defender is “needed”.
    What do you think about Balbuena? Or better go Diop or Ogbonna?
    Thanks

  5. You say Wan Bissaka is often a bench player. Are you actually following PL??? He’s featured in 27 games for Palace and played the full 90min except for one game.

    • Hi mate. I mean he’s often benched in FPL teams. Generally he seems to be played in FPL teams for home games against lower placed teams which is where Palace have been good defensively. Hope that’s now clear. Good luck this week

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