fantasy premier league transfer tips GW30 – the bandwagons and sinking ships


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Here’s our fantasy premier league transfer tips GW30 article where we outline the bandwagons and sinking ships. These are the 4 most transferred in players (bandwagons) and 4 most transferred out players (sinking ships) so far in the FPL gameweek.

fantasy premier league transfer tips GW30 – the bandwagons and sinking ships

Introduction

During this article I will talk about blanks and double gameweeks.  You can see my scenario planning article to understand it in a more practical way but in very simple terms

Blank GW31 – only 4 fixtures remain.  6 postponed

likely double GW34 and GW37 – these are likely to be the home for the postponed games above and 1 from GW28.

The Bandwagons

These are the 4 most transferred IN players so far in the gameweek




Bruno Fernandes

The £8.4m Manchester United midfielder has returned a goal or assist in 4 of the 5 games he’s started to date and has averaged 7.6 points per game.  What’s more he’s played virtually 90 minutes in every game, has been played as a central attacking midfielder and dominates set piece duties as well as having penalty responsibility.  It’s the perfect mix.

Importantly for Man Utd he’s creating chances as well as shots averaging a respectable 2.20 key passes per 90 minutes.  That puts him very marginally behind Mata for United but still some distance behind Pogba’s 2.79.  However in the 5 games since he’s been here it still means Man Utd are 10th in xG over that period so the improvement perceived isn’t backed up by the stats.

If I were to look for negatives I’d say that his non penalty underlying stats are abysmal and although he has the positive of shooting alot (averaging a massive 3.4 per game) only 3 of his 13 open play shots have been inside the box with many looking like they were closer to the centre circle than the penalty area.

The fixtures see a tricky game at Spurs followed by a blank in GW31.  After that it’s a dream run.  Unless you are free hitting in GW31 or have a full team to play you could question the timing of bringing him in

GW30 TOT (A)
GW31 None
GW32 BHA (A)
GW33 BOU (H)
GW34 AVL (A)
GW35 SOU (H)
GW36 CRY (A)
GW37 WHU (H)

Martial

A goal and 8 FPL points for the £7.9m Man Utd midfielder playing as a striker.  He owed as much to an error from City GK Ederson as it did to his finish.  It’s now 3 goals in his last 4 games.  His underlying stats have also been pretty good with good shot volumes and xG.  He is a bit deceptive in that he tends to stay the width of the penalty area so often looks pretty uninvolved and disinterested but I tend to think as long as the shot count and xG/xA are ok then I can live with the negative type eye test.

Similar timing issues as I outlined above with Bruno Fernandes applies

GW30 TOT (A)
GW31 None
GW32 BHA (A)
GW33 BOU (H)
GW34 AVL (A)
GW35 SOU (H)
GW36 CRY (A)
GW37 WHU (H)

Mane

After an injury layoff the £12.4m Liverpool midfielder has 3 goals and an assist in 3 starts and a 30 minute sub appearance.  His points per match overall is an impressive 6.7 and his underlying stats are good although he’s not a volume shooter like Salah.

He also has a fixture in the blank GW31 as well as good follow on fixtures after Man City if you’re having to plan for that

GW30 EVE (A)
GW31 CRY (H)
GW32 MCI (A)
GW33 AVL (H)
GW34 BHA (A)
GW35 BUR (H)

Jimenez

This seasons mid priced Mr Consistency.  The Wolves £8.0m forward has returned a goal or assist in 16 of his 28 starts which is  an impressive 57%.  His points per match is 5.1 which is only bettered by Abraham for forwards that are cheaper.  His underlying stats are also very good and unlike most forwards he has the ability to create chances for others and that shows up in that only Firmino has more assists as a forward than Jimenez’s 6.

Jimenez also has a guaranteed fixture in the blank week of GW31 and generally pretty good fixtures overall

GW30 WHU (A)
GW31 BOU (H)
GW32 AVL (A)
GW33 ARS (H)

The sinking ships

These are the 4 most transferred OUT players so far in the gameweek




De Bruyne

Pep after saying that he wasn’t sure about De Bruyne’s participation in the derby was sure enough that the £10.7m City midfielder wasn’t even on the bench for the Manchester Derby.

There is a report however that he will be fit for the midweek game at home to Arsenal.  However I imagine most of those who captained him will hope he doesn’t appear if they’ve vice captained Salah.

A very impressive overall points per match of 6.8 with 8 goals and an incredible 18 assists.  His underlying stats don’t back that up although his shot and key pass volumes are excellent.  However he has historically out performed his xG and xA so he’s one of the few players where you can take a more relaxed view over them.

There are some concerns though firstly Pep gave a rather oblique hint that the Champions League and the FA Cup will be the priority now that City can’t win the league.  They would have to seriously implode to not get into the top 4 although they would need to win their Champions League ban appeal for that to be relevant anyway.  As a key player it’s hard not to see him being rotated in the League.  Burnley at home before the Real Madrid 2nd leg will be the first indication and I personally would be very surprised if he starts.

The next is the immediate fixtures which are a tad problematic.  De Bruyne starting v Burnley has to be questionable then there’s a blank and then it’s Liverpool

GW30 BUR (H)
GW31 None
GW32 LIV (H)
GW33 SOU (A)

Ings

It’s now 1 goal in the last 7 gameweeks for the £7.1m Southampton forward where 2 of those games involved benchings as what seemed to be proactive injury avoidance tactics.  The drop off was only natural as he was leadiing the xG over performance charts at one stage despite showing no historical ability to do so.  He’s now 3rd in over performance behind Vardy and Aubameyang.  He has only put in 1 decent statistical performance in his last 5 starts.  Those last 5 starts have seen him shoot at an average of 2 shots per game compared to his overall average of 3.

Although Norwich haven’t conceded more than 1 goal in their last 4 home games I’d still be a bit reluctant to transfer him out before that fixture depending on what else is going on in your team.  He does have a blank GW31 which would be a more natural exit point

GW30 NOR (A)
GW31 None
GW32 WAT (A)
GW33 MCI (H)
GW34 EVE (A)
GW35 MUN (A)

Robertson

According to Klopp Robertson was left out of the side in GW29 as a precaution rather than as a direct consequence of an injury which means that should he get through the Champions League fixture v A Madrid then he would be fit for GW30.   He also has the advantage of being in one of 8 teams who have a fixture in GW31 at home to one of the poorest attacking sides in Crystal Palace.

The immediate fixtures on either side of Palace aren’t great though.  Everton away and then Man City away are tough away games even if Liverpool were at their defensive best.  However with Alisson out for a couple of gameweeks it seems and Liverpool having conceded in 3 consecutive Premier League matches it looks a difficult task for clean sheets from those 2 games to say the least.  Liverpools last 2 games have seen xG against of 1.47 and 2.73 although the shot stats at 6 and 14 against weren’t too disastrous.

To me it’s more about timing and what you’re planning on filling the blank GW31 with

GW30 EVE (A)
GW31 CRY (H)
GW32 MCI (A)
GW33 AVL (H)
GW34 BHA (A)
GW35 BUR (H)

Abraham

The £7.5m Chelsea striker is currently injured with Lampard saying that he hoped he would be back by the end of the month.  £6.5m forward Giroud has started the last 3 and returned in each game with 2 goals and an assist at a points per match over the 3 games of 6.7.

Chelsea have a good fixture at Villa next but a blank in GW31

30 AVL (A)
31 None
32 WHU (A)
33 WAT (H)
34 CRY (A)
35 SHU (A)
36 NOR (H)

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