fantasy premier league transfer tips GW4 – the bandwagons and sinking ships


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Here’s our fantasy premier league transfer tips GW4 article where we outline the bandwagons and sinking ships. These are the 4 most transferred in players (bandwagons) and 4 most transferred out players (sinking ships) so far in the FPL gameweek.

fantasy premier league transfer tips GW4 – the bandwagons and sinking ships

The Bandwagons

These are the 4 most transferred IN players so far in the gameweek




Pukki

For the 2nd week in a row the £7.0m Norwich striker leads the transfers in and by a huge distance.

So far his record is pretty impressive to say the least.  5 goals and an assist in his first 3 games, returning in each of those 3 games (2 of which were against top 6 sides last season) and a PPM of 11.7 which is the highest of any player in FPL.  His underlying stats have also been impressive with an xG90 of 0.59 which is 5th for players having played 180 minutes or more but he also has a whopping xA90 of 0.48 which none of those players above him come even remotely close to.  His shot volumes are also good as he’s shooting over 4 shots per 90 minutes which is excellent.  They are buoyed by 7 shots v Newcastle though to be fair.

He’s also in an attacking side which can’t defend so will have to attack.  In Buendia he also has an excellent creative player behind him.

However much you look at it though, you can’t escape the fact that it’s only 3 games which is hardly a conclusive data set.  Although his underlying stats are good they’re not 5 goals good although obviously no one expects him to continue at a rate of 5 goals every 3 games.  The problem is that you’re stepping in to the unknown in terms of what his future returns are going to be and as I said last week for every Chris Wood that is successful from the Championship there’s a Cameron Jerome who doesn’t adjust.  So you’re relying on what you’ve seen with your eyes and a small sample of stats.  You could take last week as a cautionary tale as he did score and assist through only 2 shots and 1 key pass including some questionable goalkeeping.

From my perspective I transferred him in before GW3 as I felt everyone else would do so, which ended up the case, at least with the 10 top managers I follow   I took the view that with the limited data and lack of PL history I couldn’t make an informed judgement whether he would be successful or not so I decided to negate the risk by buying him.  It worked out ok last week but whether it is a good buy going forward remains to be seen.

Fixtures are a bit mixed but whether you count that as a negative after he scored v Liverpool and Chelsea is another thing

GW4 WHU (A)
GW5 MCI (H)
GW6 BUR (A)
GW7 CRY (A)
GW8 AVL (H)
GW9 BOU (A)

Cantwell

It’s been a great start for the £4.7m left sided AM for Norwich.  1 goal and 2 assists in his first 3 games and a points per match of 6.3.  He also played 90 minutes in each of the 3 games.

Ignoring all that though any time you get a midfielder who is in the £4.5m region and looks secure for starts and gametime and isn’t a CDM collecting yellow cards for kicking people then he’s a transfer worth making.  It just depends what else you need to do in your team.  Given the dearth of players at that £4.5m ish price then he’s definitely a good option.

As he gets closer to £5.0m though he starts to get into a bit more competition from the likes of Norwood and Propper but he still looks good value against them at the moment.

GW4 WHU (A)
GW5 MCI (H)
GW6 BUR (A)
GW7 CRY (A)
GW8 AVL (H)
GW9 BOU (A)

Mount

The £6.2m Chelsea CAM has started the campaign with 2 goals, 20 FPL points a PPM of 6.7 and three 90 minute performances.  In a top 6 side of last season who seem determined to attack and press then he looks great value.  His underlying stats are reasonably good so far at xG90 of 0.29 and xA90 0.12 but they’re certainly not outstanding.  His shot volumes though are very good.  As I’ve said before that’s not always necessary. Sterling and Aubameyang do very well without huge volumes but all things being equal you’d rather have someone who shoots than someone who does so very little.  His assist based stats are pretty ordinary though but it could be that Chelsea’s chance creation is going to be for himself through the press.

Again you have someone who has no PL history and is 3 games in so if you’re going to transfer him in you have to believe that the stats and what you’ve seen with your eyes are enough to make the call to transfer him in.  I don’t get the sense that he’s the stampede that Pukki is at the moment.  However if you’re going to roll the dice then home to Sheffield United is a good time to do it although the next 2 after that are tough.

It’s worth remembering that he is yellow flagged.  He was kicked in the calf but Lampard seemed optimistic he would be fit.

GW4 SHU (H)
GW5 WOL (A)
GW6 LIV (H)
GW7 BHA (H)
GW8 SOU (A)
GW9 NEW (H)

Abraham

2 goals and 2 great finishes in the win over Norwich for the £7.1m Chelsea CF.

The initial picture for Abraham is different than Mount though.  Firstly Abraham played for Swansea in the Premier League in 17/18 so we have some previous stats.  He made 15 starts plus 16 as sub for 5 goals and 3 assists at a goal or assist every 214 minutes which is pretty ordinary to say the least.  It’s hard to know how much to take from that as Swansea were relegated and scored only 28 goals.  That was the lowest in the league at the time.  His FPL PP90 in that season was  4.5 which sounds ok but it’s hard to take anything with so many sub appearances.  PPM it would be 2.8

So were not really  any closer to knowing what we can project for Abraham.  He started 2 of the 3 games but he’s a natural sub magnet for Giroud and only lasted 65 and 74 minutes in the games he started.  His underlying stats are pretty ordinary to say the least so far this season.  They’re actually lower than his Swansea ones.  His 2 goals v Norwich were excellent finishes but the result of 3 shots.

Again 3 games is  difficult to make any assessment from so if you’re thinking of the transfer, you just have to rely on what you’ve seen and the limited stats to date.

Again a good entry game although the 2 after that are more difficult as I said above.

GW4 SHU (H)
GW5 WOL (A)
GW6 LIV (H)
GW7 BHA (H)
GW8 SOU (A)
GW9 NEW (H)




The Sinking Ships

These are the 4 most transferred OUT players so far in the gameweek

Kane

It’s no surprise to me that Kane after blanking and only having 1 shot vs a team that looked a defensive nightmare the week before v Norwich would be top of this list.

It’s the 2nd consecutive pretty anonymous performance although to be fair the first was against Man City which is pretty excusable.  The first game against Villa was the Harry Kane we expect to see 8 shots and an xG of 0.83.

However before we all throw our hands up in the air and Kane in the bin it’s worth remembering that the one thing about Harry Kane is consistency.  If he plays 3,000 minutes he will get between 20 -25 goals as his shot volumes and xG are pretty consistent over the seasons.  That should translate itself to 200 FPL points or so.  You just know what you’re going to get if you look at history.  You could even get more if he replicates his 17/18 season and just goes nuts or if he has a normal underlying stats season of 0.50 NPxG and just doesn’t miss anything like he did in 16/17 and over performed a ridiculous amount.

To me though this consistency depends on 2 things.  Has his injuries fundamentally changed him as a player so 3,000 minutes and his mobility are suspect.  Secondly, can he live without the creativity of Eriksen if Eriksen leaves in this European window.  Dele as a support striker when fit could help and a fit Ndombele will help get the ball to  the AM’s but it was pretty sobering that in the Newcastle game the man who made the most key passes and who had the best xA by a mile was Sissoko and that can’t be good.  Now if Kane had been awarded a penalty then perhaps this would be a different discussion but for me if you’re going to play a 2 designated captain structure in your FPL team then you’d probably say that Sterling and Salah will out point Kane and be the logical captains.

GW4 ARS (A)
GW5 CRY (H)
GW6 LEI (A)
GW7 SOU (H)
GW8 BHA (A)
GW9 WAT (H)

Ndombele

Currently has a injury and there is no certainty of his return date at the moment.  That’s shown up as a red arrow on the FPL site which is why the selling seems to be happening en masse.

2 games and 14 points with a goal or assist in both games it’s a pretty promising start but there’s certainly nothing in his Lyon numbers of 1 goal and 7 assists at a goal or assist every 336 minutes that suggests he will be a viable FPL player.  There’s also nothing in his Lyon or his 2 game Spurs underlying stats that suggests he will either.  That currently at the level of a pretty low key attacking fullback.  That’s not to say he won’t improve Spurs overall as a team, his ability to pass forward from a CM base and dribble will certainly help those further forward.

GW4 ARS (A)
GW5 CRY (H)
GW6 LEI (A)
GW7 SOU (H)
GW8 BHA (A)
GW9 WAT (H)

Rashford

The width of the post is probably the reason why Rashford is on the list after missing his penalty vs Palace.  3 games 2 goals 1 assist 19 FPL points is anything but a disaster that’s for sure.  Especially when you consider his price is and the fact that he probably has penalties still.  I say that despite Solskjaers shared responsibility words which I imagine (hope) are for public consumption only.

The negatives are the underlying stats which if you strip out pens are pretty ordinary and the fact that he’s been played as a left sided AM and himself has spoken about defensive duties.

GW4 SOU (A)
GW5 LEI (H)
GW6 WHU (A)
GW7 ARS (H)
GW8 NEW (A)
GW9 LIV (H)

King

Bournemouth attackers were popular due to the opening fixtures against 2 promoted teams.  The emergence of Pukki in particular, lack of goals from Bournemouths attackers and Man City in GW3 has seen quite a sell off.

King with just 1 penalty as a return in 3 games and 10 FPL points has been a disappointment and his underlying stats and shot/KP volumes have been horrible if you strip out the penalty.

If you are looking for positives though King has been pretty consistent in his delivery of those underlying stats over the seasons, 17/18 apart, and those levels are pretty consistent with his price.  It’s not the most exciting recommendation though.

GW4 LEI (A)
GW5 EVE (H)
GW6 SOU (A)
GW7 WHU (H)
GW8 ARS (A)
GW9 NOR (H)

Other posts

The FFGeek captain poll

The FFGeek contributors show their teams for GW4 part 1

GW3 review from an underlying stats perspective

Analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers

The transfer in and out polls

Early thoughts on the FFGeek team

GW4 fixture ease article

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4 thoughts on “fantasy premier league transfer tips GW4 – the bandwagons and sinking ships”

  1. If it hadn’t been for that clown Luiz, Salah would probably have blanked.

    I’m making a mental note to myself: never ever captain Kane again. He did the same at home to Cardiff last year. Still, he could easily get a couple against Arsenal.

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