fantasy premier league transfers – the most consistent returners

You may have seen my article on team on the fantasy premier league team of the season.  Here’s a slightly different spin.  The fantasy premier league attacking players who have posted similar points per minute over the last 3 seasons.  The idea here is to find out which players “do what they say on the tin” as the annoying advertisment goes or put another way the players who “give you what you pay for”

fantasy premier league transfers – the most consistent returners

The point of this article is to look at midfield and forward players who, over the last 3 years, have given anuual minutes per FPL point at very similar levels.  So when you buy this player you can see that over the last 3 years (over the course of the whole season) he’s performed at similar levels. In other words,  if you were to buy this player then history shows that he has performed at similar levels the last 3 years.  I’m calling it consistent and predicatable.  Others may call it stagnation!  So just for further clarity, Suarez won’t be in this as over the course of the 3 years he’s improved so significantly his returns per minute have nearly doubled.  As I said this is about consistency and predicatability.

In the table below I’ll outline the player and  his returns for the last 3 years. I’ll then add  the average of those returns and the gap between highest and lowest returns.  The player with the narrowest gap of 3 years is the most predictable/consistent. It doesn’t mean week to week theyre the most consistent just over the season. There’s a key underneath the table to explain each column

Key:

Value:  value at the end of the 13/14 season

Minute per FPL point 13/14 season:  How long it takes to earn an FPL point averaged out over the entire season.  The lower the better obviously

Average over 3 years:  The average of the 3 years of how many minutes  it takes to get an FPL point.  Again the lower the better

Return gap between best/worst:  This is the gap between the lowest and the highest of the 3 minutes per FPL points columns.  The lower the more consistent/predictable

Rooney

Despite being played in a number of positions over the last 3 years and with 2 different managers, Rooney has managed to produce consistent results.  He certianly knows the premier leahgue and knows how to score against the poorer teams.  Last year only Suarez, Sturridge and Aguero had better returns per minute than Rooney and although expensive you know he will produce.

Saying all that, this season is a difficult one to assess for Rooney.  With SAF Rooney was being marginalised positionally especially.  Moyes didn’t do that and Rooneys returns this year were better than last and more like the season before.  However Van Gaal will certainly not tip toe around the stars and Rooney will have to perform.  Having said that the team should be more attacking under Van Gaal, its just where Rooney plays.  He could play as one of the front 3 in 4-3-3.  He could play as a pair with RVP in 3-5-2/3-4-1-2 as Van Gaal did in the World Cup.  Preseason will be the key to understanding Rooneys role in United.  Crucial given their good early fixtures

RVP

With Saurez was the best striker in the premier league before last season.  However even blighted by injuries and looking like he wanted to be anywhere else for most of the time he still gave ok returns per minute.  They were the lowest of the 3 years but it was the injuries and attitude that stuck but the returns could have been worse.

This season has good and bad going for it. Firstly he has a coach who understands him and he respects.  That will be crucial after last year and Van Gaal will work closely with RVP and ensure he is at his best.  The bad however is the lack of rest that he will get after going the distance in the World Cup.  He wasn’t exactly in sparkling fitness going into the World Cup so it will be interesting to see how he performs.  Good fixtures for United means you have to decide quickly so preseason will be crucial.

Dzeko

Consistent or predictable isn’t exactly the words you think of with Dzeko. Sometimes he looks like he couldn’t miss and is deadly, sometimes he looks like he couldn’t hit a barn door.  The sight of him kicking the goal post in frustration last season after missing a sitter from a few yards is one of the more memorable images of the season.

On a per minute basis though he has produced relatively similar returns.  In fact if you strip out the “Mancini blip” that all attacking City players faced in 12-13 then they’re very similar.  The returns per minute for the price last year were nothing short of phenomenel.  However there’s a catch.  The problem is it’s no good having per minute stats that are good if you’re gametime isn’t secure and the minutes are sub appearances or being subbed or rotated every 3 games.  If Dzeko plays regularly then he will get the returns over the season.  It’s just can that happen in a club that will fight for every trophy and want 4 quality strikers?

 Sturridge

Sturridge last year was a consistent returner of goals and assists on a weekly basis as well as producing good overall season results each year.  Those good results happened irrespective of whether Suarez was in the team or not.  They are also on an upward trend.  Despite the Costa Rica game he is a good converter of chances.  On a per minute basis only Suarez and Aguero had better returns.

Liverpool though in selling Sturridge will see a number of players coming in.  Thats not only due to the cash available but also enlarging the squad for the Champions League.  It will be interesting to see if these changes affect Sturridge.  Personally I can’t see Sturridge playing anything other than as the most forward striker or as a pair given his finishing strength.

Nolan

If anyone is the opposite of consistent it’s Kevin Nolan.  You never know whether you’re going to get a hat trick or a run of 7 games with no returns whatsover.  Only really performs against poor opposition and even then it’s still not predictable.  However over a season those returns are remarkably similar.  The problem is that for the price theyre not really that good.  Sterling was miles better for the price last year.  Puncheon and Adam also were.  You may know over the season what you’re going to get.  It’s just not good value for the money

Silva

Silva also suffered from the “Mancini blip” in 12-13 but is a consistent returner year by year and week by week.  He’s also very important to Pellegrini.  He has alot of shots and creates alot of chances.  If only his conversion rate was better.  Last year only YYT, Ramsey Walcott and Gerrard had better returns per minute. Silva was cheaper or a similar price to all those players apart from Ramsey.

Next year should be a continuation of the same.  The future of YYT is probably the unknown  for Pellegrini.

Gerrard

This year was enhanced by 10 penalties.  I don’t have the stats for how many Suarez created but its questionable whether he can return to quite the high level he did this year without Suarez to earn them.

Hope you found that interesting.

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fantasy premier league transfers

fantasy premier league transfers