Here’s our fantasy premier league underlying stats article where we look at 4 players who have significantly over performed their xG. It can be a signal that things could worsen in the short term.
Fantasy Premier League underlying stats – 4 players who have over performed them
All stats are from the free site understat
The £11.1m Arsenal forward leads all players in out performing his xG. He’s currently scored 17 goals compared to an xG of 12. This doesn’t tally with his history as his career sees him pretty much under perform his xG consistently. What’s more concerning is his base level stats put him in 11th position in my latest forward player rankings schedule.
His shooting volumes are at his lowest level in his last 6 seasons and he’s also playing as an LW/AML albeit with license to roam inside due to a LB giving the left sided attacking width.
With 3 goals in his last 3 games albeit coming from an xG of 1.01 on the surface he seems to be maintaining his form but it’s hard not to see a slowdown. This is especially so as Arsenal are 12th in xG this season behind the likes of Brighton and Burnley.
Arsenals remaining fixtures are good overall although who knows how they will be grouped or played out if they ever are
The £9.6m Leicester forward has been seemingly unable to miss this season until a run of 7 games without a goal suddenly corrected the situation to some degree.
He returned with 2 goals off the bench against a hapless Villa side which has seemingly put him back in the frame for FPL selection but his 19 goals is still 4.76 goals ahead of his expected total of 14.24.
On a more positive note, history has shown he can over perform his underlying stats although generally not to this degree. However, in 17/18 he over performed by 4.73 goals to score 20 so it’s not out of the question he can sustain it.
He will need to as in my player rankings article his baseline xG/xA sees him ranked 9th.
Leicesters remaining fixtures are pretty ordinary overall although that will depend on how they will be grouped or played out if they ever are
The £7.1m Southampton forward has scored 15 goals compared to his xG of 11.05. An over performance of 3.95. That’s against a history of pretty much under performing them in every season. It’s therefore hard to be positive about future prospects. That’s especially so as his base line numbers in my player rankings article seems him 15th amongst forwards
The correction has already started it seems with just 1 goal in his last 7 gameweeks although to be fair 2 of those appearances were as a sub.
Southamptons remaining fixtures are poor overall although that will depend on how they will be grouped or played out if they ever are
Kevin De Bruyne
The £10.6m Man City midfielder has scored 9 goals vs his xG of 5.25. That’s an over performance of 3.75. However De Bruyne along with Eden Hazard of the past is one guy you can rely on to consistently over perform his stats. He’s over performed his xG in 5 of the 6 last seasons and he’s helped by his Man City colleagues allowing him to also out perform his xA in 4 of the last 5 seasons with them.
Essentially he’s not one to be tied down or evaluated solely on his underlying stats.
Man Citys remaining fixtures are good overall although who knows how they will be grouped or played out if they ever are
Fixture Ease schedule
Here’s a schedule of their remaining fixtures. How they will be played out, if at all is anyones guess. They are ordered as per the FPL site when I put them together