Here’s the 2nd part of our fantasy premier league underlying stats review where we look at expected goals for teams and players to build on the knowledge from the underlying stats in part 1
Fantasy premier league underlying stats review – part 2 expected goals
Here’s part 2 of our fantasy premier league underlying stats review where we look at expected goals (xG) at a team and player level to see what insights we can get for future player selection. Here’s a link to part 1
Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.
Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.
In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened. Remember though we are only 3 games in so it’s difficult to make any accurate predictions from such limited data
Team expected goals are from twitter sites 11tegen11 and caley graphics. Player stats are from a twitter site of Scott Willis. All 3 sites are free and public
Team defensive xG
The expected top 7 sides feature prominently apart from Liverpool and Arsenal who have had recent year defensive problems
The promoted sides have fared well although generally fixtures have been good.
Swansea’s 2 clean sheets are a mirage
The Southampton defence doesn’t look like it was hoped to be despite 2 clean sheets
Team attacking xG
Again teams from the expected top 7 are at the top except for Everton and Chelsea who have had tricky fixtures to start. Everton look a problem though even allowing for that. Huddersfield and Brighton have struggled and Swansea have struggled at both ends.
Newcastle and Watford are pleasant surprises although Newcastle have had good fixtures
Top 20 players xG
All players are forwards except Midfielders are M and Defenders D
If Part 1 of the underlying stats review wasn’t enough to convince you Kane should score soon then this hopefully will help push you over the edge.
This helps show that Alli gets into quality positions which is why he scores so much. Richarlison also popping up as a cheap mid even with v Brighton with 10 men distorting the stats.
These stats help to give credence to the box to box midfielders of Ramsey and Pogba that maybe other stats don’t
Top 20 players expected assists (xA)
All players are midfielders except Forwards are F and Defenders D
Remember FPL categories assists differently than Opta
Not enough data for conclusions here but Mkhitarayn unsurprisingly with 5 assists is overperforming.
There are only 2 players on both schedules they being Pogba and Firmino.
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