Out of my 4 captain choices of Eden Hazard , Defoe, Bale and RVP in my post “the captain choice game week 4” all scored additional points apart from the one I went with, Eden Hazard. This article will attempt to find out why?
You may remember I said after GW3 that there was no evidence that Eden Hazard was an essential purchase. Things changed in my mind when Eden Hazard, despite not scoring, looked very threatening against QPR in a difficult game for Chelsea. Anyway , lets delve in to the stats to work out if we can see why. He’s only had 4 game weeks in fantasy premier league so there isnt a huge amount of data but Im going to compare the Stoke game to his successful home game against Newcastle and see what differences there were. It will be a bit tricky to compare as he only played 60 minutes but should provide enough lessons. However firstly lets put stats aside and rely on what our eyes saw in the game against Stoke
What did our eyes see?
My explanation after the Stoke game was that Oscar, who didn’t play against Newcastle was taking up positions and receiving the ball in positions that you would have expected Eden Hazard to be. Oscar was quite often the most advanced midfielder. That’s my explanation and given Chelseas fixtures and how successful Oscar has been then on that observation alone, Im not that positive about the fantasy premier league future of Eden Hazard
Stats
Firstly lets compare the 2 games.
Chelsea beat Newcastle 2-0.
Eden Hazard played the entire 96 minutes and scored a goal and an assist and 2 bonus points for a total of 13 points.
Oscar didnt play and Mata played 67 minutes. Possession was 53% to Chelsea and the shots were 12-11.
Chelsea 1 Stoke 0
Eden Hazard played 62 minutes only getting 3 points
Oscar and Mata played virtually the entire game. Possession was 60% to Chelsea shots 19-13
So in Summary Chelsea had far more possession and shots in the Stoke game than the Newcastle game.
Eden Hazard comparison stats
Eden Hazard had far more shots in the Newcastle game, got in to the box more and shot in the box more, even allowing for the playing time difference
Passing wise and chances created there was little difference in the stats.
Touches and passes received, again very little different
In both games he was the most forward player. However, in the Stoke game, the average position of Mata, Oscar and Hazard were virtually on top of each other whereas Eden Hazard had more space in the Newcastle game without Oscar playing. Oscar dominated the shots in the Stoke game
Summary
So the obvious difference is the amount of shots Eden Hazard had in the 2 games although the other stats particular to Hazard don’t show any reason why thats the case. The only difference in the 2 games was the presence of Oscar and his shot domination of the Stoke game compared to Hazard only having 1 shot. That summary co-incides with what seemed to be happening when watching the game. Given Oscars performance I expect him to keep starting. Add that to the fixtures, where Chelsea have virtually the worst in the league and I would warn anyone against purchasing Hazard at the moment until more data is received. I dont think 1 game is clear cut enough to sell him thats for sure although you may take the view to sell him on fixtures alone which would be understandable. The one thing that may change is that having 3 players with exactly the same average position isnt ideal for RDM and he will have to change things to avoid sides packing the centre to stop Chelsea.
Therefore, dont buy him but no reason as yet to panic sell but fixtures are against him so a sale for this reason is justifiable
Hope that gives everyone some food for thought. Additional articles below
http://www.fantasyfootballgeek.co.uk/the-fantasy-premier-league-captain-choice-game-week-5/
