Here’s our Football INDEX monthly review of the 20 share purchases in players over the last month. We look at the winners, the losers and try and the learnings from the months trades.
Football INDEX – a monthly review of April’s purchases
Note this article was written on Thursday 11 May
You may have seen my football INDEX introductory article where I outlined the basics of the footballer stock market where you buy and sell shares in real players.
So this month I’ve spent the £100 I deposited in £5 lots and now is the time to look how those purchases have performed and also concentrate on who has performed well and who hasn’t and see what has been learned.
If you want to see what it’s about click on the image below or take a look here
In my introductory article I looked at various categories of players that could see rises after experimenting for a few weeks. These were the categories that I identified:
Transfer rumours and future transfer possibilities
Players coming back from injury
Players with room to improve
Those players who have good fixtures and could go on a run of form
Those players who just look cheap.
Transfer rumours seem to be the main driver of price as far as I can see but also improved form and gametime also seemed to be a driver.
I found trying to react to transfer rumours difficult as invariably you feel like you arrived too late and/or the player has already seen steep gains so you kind of wonder whether you would be buying at the top of the market. Having said that some have worked out very well and I may just revisit that avenue.
Purchasing players coming back from injury has seen mixed returns.
Predicting players having a good run of form through fixtures has worked well although with the season over that is on hold for the moment
My main focus has been trying to predict future transfers just through individual situations where I think they will see a transfer over the summer. This has made it difficult to look at anyone outside the premier league as my knowledge outside of it isn’t as good.
This months transfers
|Trade no||Player||Date bought||% rise/fall|
So a pretty ordinary return of 1.39% for the month.
With Stoke looking odds on for relegation Jack Butland looked a nailed on transfer to another premier league club and the I’ve seen an excellent rise from him presumably on that premise.
This was a purchase based on someone coming back from a long term injury and then getting back into the side and it has seen a good return. However other similar gambles in Clyne and Mendy prior to this month have seen slight losses so hard to know what to make of that.
This was a future transfer purchase. Abraham after Swansea’s relegation goes back to Chelsea and for me he must be a future transfer as he obviously isn’t good enough for Chelsea. I doubt whether he’s even good enough as an injury back up. That and Swansea’s relegation possibility meaning a return was likely may have fuelled this.
This was a purchase based on hope of future improvement and maybe a future transfer. He’s a young CB who’s played a lot of games for PSG and either will establish himself further or get a transfer. I found out about him by reading some random article.
My worst loss by far. A future transfer possibility was the theory. This was based on him just not being good enough for a potential title challenging team and being on the out list for a new manager resulting in a transfer. It’s been a disaster but I believe in the fundamental logic so I’m holding on.
Another future transfer possibility. Zappacosta in my mind is a good attacking full back who just hasn’t seen the gametime he should be getting due to the form of Moses. Conte looks a possibility to leave and Zappacosta should be an attractive Serie A transfer. The loss isn’t too bad so I’m holding.
This was based on various transfer rumours. Did break his finger but back with a World Cup ahead. No need to sell for me.
The next month will see the end of the season and the World Cup looming large. Squad announcements and transfer rumours will be the main driver and I can see it being a difficult month. However I will continue tweeting and facebook posting my transfers and will be looking to do so at a similar rate to last month.
Here’s my overall position. A 4.90% gain which has been helped through some big gains in my tinkering phase. Zaha, Loftus Cheek, Alderweireld and Mahrez have all been big successes. The first 2 through form and the other 2 through transfer speculation.
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