Here’s our FPL defender tips GW1 article with player rankings for defenders and goalkeepers as we enter GW1. There’s a table of stats plus some narrative around the choices
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FPL defender tips GW1 – player rankings for Defs/Gks
Methodology
As it’s so difficult to model defenders and goalkeepers from underlying stats up I’ve based them on points per match from the fantasy premier league site.
I’ve then adjusted them for the next 6 fixtures with the fixture ease factors as well as for any players with excessive substitute distortion and lastly for changes in defensive circumstances. The last one is particularly subjective unfortunately but necessary. Most of the PPMs are from the FPL site but some are subject to amendment as mentioned above
The VFM rank is the projected points divided by the value.
The schedule
Players are ranked on their projected points over the next 6 gameweeks
A few comments
Everton and Digne in particular
In my mind the loss of Zouma and Gueye will hurt Everton defensively. The acquisition of a supposedly ineffective headerer of the ball in Moise Kean will also be an issue for Digne’s crossing points potential. I have negatively adjusted Digne but he still shows up well. The risk is obviously though that no one, not even Marco Silva, knows how much the loss of Gueye in particular will negatively affect the defence
Man City
Zinchenko will have Mendy as a likely replacement when he’s fit. Mendy thinks he’s close but that was just twitter talk. Laporte is a doubt with a knock. Stones seems likely to win the right sided battle with Otamendi as Otamendi is normally a left sided CB. Walker has new arrival Cancelo as competition but to make matters worse he could in theory become a right sided CB. Welcome to the world of Pep and Man City
Leicester and Man Utd
Harry Maguires move has meant a discount of Leicester and a positive for Man Utd to add to the bump already given for the arrival of Wan Bissaka
Guaita and Gunn
Both come into the season with late runs and good PPMs. Gunn’s PPM is a bit far ahead of his team mates which obviously creates some uncertainty and Guaita has a similar story. Guaita has been quite heavily discounted for the loss of Wan Bissaka and the potential that both Sakho and Tomkins could be out for GW1
Spurs and Chelsea
I’ve given Spurs a bit of a positive bump for the acquisition of Ndombele. Chelsea I’ve kept the same by virtue of a negative for a less possession heavy manager where there seems to be some risk that they will concede more versus the positive of Kante being returned to his natural CDM position once match fit.
Defensive players fixture ease schedule
Here’s a graphic where the teams are ranked by the ease of the attacking teams they face over the first 6 gameweeks. There’s player suggestions and last seasons PPM next to them
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