Here’s our FPL defender tips GW2 article with player rankings for defenders and goalkeepers as we enter GW2. There’s a table of stats plus some narrative around the choices
FPL defender tips GW2 – player rankings for Defs/Gks
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Methodology
As it’s so difficult to model defenders and goalkeepers from underlying stats up I’ve based them on points per match from the fantasy premier league site.
I’ve then adjusted them for the next 6 fixtures with the fixture ease factors as well as for any players with excessive substitute distortion and lastly for changes in defensive circumstances. The last one is particularly subjective unfortunately but necessary. Most of the PPMs are from the FPL site but some are subject to the substitution amendment as mentioned above
The VFM rank is the projected points divided by the value.
The schedule
Players are ranked on their projected points over the next 6 gameweeks
A few comments
Manchester United
I’ve given Manchester United quite a positive bump upwards on their PPMs from last season based on the signings of Maguire and Wan Bissaka. They still have a midfield problem having let their best tackling midfielder go to PSG and then only having 2 CMs instead of 3 neither of which are reknown for tackling. So there is a screening issue their still. It shouldn’t be forgotten that last season they only had 7 clean sheets. Only Huddersfield and Fulham had less so their PPMs are starting from a low base but priced at £5.5m which is more of a 13 clean sheet team. Despite a clean sheet against Chelsea they still conceded 18 shots and had an xG against of 1.34.
The are a team that you have to have a subjective opinion on to pick them rather than read this table.
Manchester City
It’s worth mentioning that both Zinchenko and Walker will have Mendy and Cancelo respectively pushing them for their place. Laporte is probably the safest pick.
Liverpool
I’ve also given Liverpool a reasonable negative bump for the loss of Alisson who was the GK with the best save % last season. Adrian is no mug but he’s also not Alisson either. If you’re willing to use one of your Liverpool spots for Adrian he makes a very cheap entry into the Liverpool defence. It’s impossible to give him a relevant PPM so I’ve just tried to subjectively discount him to Alisson.
Other sides negatively adjusted
This is for fundamentals and not fixtures which are a separate adjustment.
Brighton for having a more attacking coach
Chelsea for new coach and a less possession orientated approach.
Palace for injuries to Sakho and Tomkins
Everton for the loss of Gueye and Zouma (although after Zouma v Man Utd…..)
Leicester for losing Maguire
Newcastle for losing Rafa
Sides positively adjusted
Arsenal for adding Luiz. Anyone is a positive over Mustafi who contributed to the sides low PPMs last season. Even Chambers
Man Utd for Maguire and Wan Bissaka
Spurs for Ndombele.
£4.5m & £4.0m Defs
You can see there’s no £4.5m defenders in there. It’s hard to rank them over 6 games as you’ll either use them as bench players or as a rotation so analysing them as playing every game is pretty unrealistic.
But the top ranked were Fredericks, Balbuena Adam Smith and Soyuncu. I’ve also got Chambers in there but I imagine he will lose his place to Luiz.
There are 2 £4.0m defs in Rico of Bournemouth and Lundstram of Sheffield United who’s actually a CM and performed well v Bournemouth in GW1. There is some risk to Lundstram through Besic as it’s hard to see Norwood or Fleck being moved out if they want to bring him in. Rico only really has Charlie Daniels until Kelly is fit but he has no return date as yet. There’s also £4.0m Kelly of Palace but he will likely be replaced when Sakho or Tomkins is fit but neither have return dates at the moment
A fixture ease schedule for defensive players
Here’s a graphic where the teams are ranked by the ease of the attacking teams they face over the next 6 gameweeks. There’s player suggestions and last seasons PPM/ this seasons points next to them
Geek note: If you join our Patreon site you will get access to an FPL contributor tracker team which combines the contributors individual teams each week to show their favourite players, transfers and captains. It will always be completed on a Friday/Saturday in a normal gameweek. There will also be a spreadsheet of each managers teams, transfers and captains so you can drill down further.
You also get:
Joe’s interactive transfer planner and points projection tool
Weekly podcasts with myself and the contributors
FFGeek private leagues
Access to the FFGeek Slack channel for discussion with the contributors and members
$2 and $3 tiers per calendar month. No commitment beyond 1 month
Other posts
See our bandwagons and sinking ships article, fixture ease article 10 top FPL managers article, gameweek 1 review article and the early FFGeek team thoughts article.
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