FPL defender tips GW3 – player rankings for Defs/Gks


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Here’s our FPL defender tips GW3 article with player rankings for defenders and goalkeepers as we enter GW3. There’s a table of stats plus some narrative around the choices

FPL defender tips GW3 – player rankings for Defs/Gks

Geek note: If you join our Patreon site you will get access to an FPL contributor tracker team which combines the contributors individual teams each week to show their favourite players, transfers and captains. It will always be completed on a Friday/Saturday in a normal gameweek. There will also be a spreadsheet of each managers teams, transfers and captains so you can drill down further.

You also get:

Joe’s interactive transfer planner and points projection tool

Weekly podcasts with myself and the contributors

FFGeek private leagues

Access to the FFGeek Slack channel for discussion with the contributors and members

$2 and $3 tiers per calendar month. No commitment beyond 1 month

Remember it’s only been 2 gameweeks

It’s difficult to make predictions based on the first 2 weeks of the season and the limited takes we can from pre-season

So while I’ve adjusted for transfers, personnel changes and some early form 18/19 stats are still my base.  Those particularly affected  will be discussed in the narrative below

Methodology

As it’s so difficult to model defenders and goalkeepers from underlying stats up I’ve based them on points per match from the fantasy premier league site.

I’ve then adjusted them for the next 6 fixtures with the fixture ease factors as well as for any players with excessive substitute distortion and lastly for changes in defensive circumstances. The last one is particularly subjective unfortunately but necessary. Most of the PPMs are from the FPL site but some are subject to the substitution amendment as mentioned above

The VFM rank is the projected points divided by the value.

Lastly I’ve put one bookies odds for a clean sheet for GW3

The projected points schedule

Players are ranked on their projected points over the next 6 gameweeks



FPL defender tips GW3

The Value for money schedule

This is the projected points divided by the players price.

FPL defender tips GW3

Bookies clean sheet odds in order

This is the return based on £1 bet from 1 bookie.  The lower the odds the higher chance of a clean sheet is the theory.

TeamCS Odds
Spurs1.75
Man Utd1.85
Man City1.91
Wolves2.10
Leicester2.50
Liverpool2.60
Brighton2.80
Chelsea2.90
Everton3.10
Southampton3.25
Watford3.25
Sheffield3.40
Burnley4.20
Villa4.33
West Ham4.33
Norwich5.80
C Palace7.50
Arsenal8.00
Newcastle11.00
Bournemouth13.00

A few comments

Manchester United

I’ve given Manchester United quite a positive bump upwards on their PPMs from last season based on the signings of Maguire and Wan Bissaka. They still have a midfield problem having let their best tackling midfielder go to PSG and then only having 2 CMs instead of 3 neither of which are reknown for tackling. So there is a screening issue their still. However Man Utd’s rather counter attacking style means that this lack of midfield seems to be less of an issue as it means they are less counter attacked themselves.

However in very basic terms, it shouldn’t be forgotten that last season they only had 7 clean sheets. Only Huddersfield and Fulham had less so their PPMs are starting from a low base but priced at £5.5m which is more of a 13 clean sheet team. Despite a clean sheet against Chelsea they still conceded 18 shots and had an xG against of 1.34.  Against Wolves, despite no clean sheet it was a very impressive defensive performance with only 6 shots allowed and an xG of 0.31.  However Wolves are the ultimate counter attacking team which again suits the United defence.

Watching them defensively they seem to have improved it’s just whether you trust your eyes or wait for more stats than 2 games to decide.

Man City

With only 8 shots allowed against them in 2 games (the PL average is 12) it has been some defensive start despite the goals against them in Spurs who scored twice from 3 shots.  Laporte and Ederson are probably the only real nailed players though with Zinchenko facing competition at some stage from Mendy and Walker from Cancelo.

Spurs

Lloris has the advantage of being a good shot stopper and being in a team which should improve on their 13 clean sheet total from last season given the acquisitions of Ndombele and Lo Celso who are CMs who can defend and attack

Liverpool

If you read my bandwagons and sinking ships article you’ll note that when I looked at the underlying stats in the first 2 games the shots conceded per game have gone up from 8 to 13 and the tackles have reduced from 16 to 14 although the opposition having slightly more possession. The xG against per game has gone up from 0.77 to 1.36. Now it is only 2 games but none of that is not good. To make matters worse Robertson’s assist related underlying stats have fallen off  cliff although Trents are more than fine. He’s made 2 key passes in 2 games and believe me they are not high value chances any any stretch.

Like Man Utd it’s just 2 games of stats but certainly watching them they’ve looked shaky.  It’s just whether that’s enough for you to jump ship or not.

Other sides negatively adjusted

This is for fundamentals and not fixtures which are a separate adjustment.

Brighton for having a more attacking coach

Chelsea for new coach and a less possession orientated approach.

Palace for injuries to Sakho and Tomkins

Everton for the loss of Gueye and Zouma although things have started well

Leicester for losing Maguire although Soyuncu has been excellent

Newcastle for losing Rafa

Sides positively adjusted

Arsenal for adding Luiz. Anyone is a positive over Mustafi who contributed to the sides low PPMs last season.

Man Utd for Maguire and Wan Bissaka as stated above

Spurs for Ndombele again as stated above

The £4.0m and £4.5m defenders

You will have noticed the scarcity of £4.5m and £4.0m  defenders in the. It’s hard to rank them over 6 games as you’ll either use them as bench players or as a rotation so analysing them as playing every game is pretty unrealistic.

Of the £4.0mish defs, £4.1m Lundstram looks the best of the £4.0ms at the moment although he has competition incoming from Besic.  £4.0m Kelly will likely lose his place if Sakho or Tomkins ever get fit.  Hanley the same for the other Norwich CBs.  Rico lost his place to Daniels although that could be related to transfer rumours.

The top ranked £4.5m were Soyuncu, Fredericks,  Adam Smith and Diop



A fixture ease schedule for defensive players

Here’s a fantasy premier league best fixtures GW3 graphic where the teams are ranked by the ease of the attacking teams they face over the next 6 gameweeks.  fantasy premier league best fixtures GW3

Other GW3 posts

Analysing 10 top FPL managers teams

Early thoughts on the FFGeek team

Bandwagons and sinking ships

Fixture ease article

Transfer in and out polls

The GW3 captain poll

Geek note: If you join our Patreon site you will get access to an FPL contributor tracker team which combines the contributors individual teams each week to show their favourite players, transfers and captains. It will always be completed on a Friday/Saturday in a normal gameweek. There will also be a spreadsheet of each managers teams, transfers and captains so you can drill down further.

You also get:

Joe’s interactive transfer planner and points projection tool

Weekly podcasts with myself and the contributors

FFGeek private leagues

Access to the FFGeek Slack channel for discussion with the contributors and members

$2 and $3 tiers per calendar month. No commitment beyond 1 month

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