FPL defender tips GW5 – player rankings for Defs/Gks

Here’s our FPL defender tips GW5 article with player rankings for defenders and goalkeepers for GW5. There’s a table of stats plus some narrative around the choices

FPL defender tips GW5 – player rankings for Defs/Gks

It’s difficult to make predictions based on the first 4 weeks of the season and the limited takes we can from pre-season

So while I’ve adjusted for transfers, personnel changes and some early form 18/19 stats are still my base.

Methodology

As it’s so difficult to model defenders and goalkeepers from underlying stats up I’ve based them on points per match from the fantasy premier league site.

I’ve then adjusted them for the next 6 fixtures with the fixture ease factors as well as for any players with excessive substitute distortion and lastly for changes in defensive circumstances. The last one is particularly subjective unfortunately but necessary. Most of the PPMs are from the FPL site but some are subject to the substitution amendment as mentioned above or if they are new to the FPL or team and extrapolation of others stats.

The VFM rank is the projected points divided by the value.

Lastly I’ve put one bookies odds for a clean sheet for GW5

I’ve also added on the Points per Match for 19/20

The Defs/GKs ranked by projected points over 6 fixtures

Players are ranked on their projected points over the next 6 gameweeks. Here’s the link to the google spreadsheet. Go to File> make a copy and then you can filter it adjust as you want

The Defs/GKs ranked by value for money over 6 fixtures

Players are ranked on their value for money over the next 6 gameweeks. Here’s the link to the google spreadsheet. Go to File> make a copy and then you can filter it adjust as you want.

The Bookies Clean sheet odds for GW5

Remember it is the return for £1 invested.

Ranking the teams by 19/20 stats

Here I’ve ranked the teams by 3 stats for 19/20 results only subject to some small adjustments.  Obviously 4 games isn’t anything like a decent sample but it does make interesting read

The stats are

Goals against rank.  There are a number of teams on the same goals against so I’ve taken the midpoint rank for all the teams with the same goals conceded.

xG against rank

Shots against rank

The fixture ease schedule

Here’s the schedule which ranks the teams by the ease of the attacking teams they face over the next 6 weeks.  Individual fixtures are colour coded

A few comments

Lets talk about Spurs

Spurs have been in the interesting position of having 2 difficult fixtures with Man City and Arsenal away but 2 of the best home fixtures with Newcastle and Aston Villa.  In both home games shot wise and xGA wise they should have had 2 clean sheets.  The away fixtures were predictably difficult and that has distorted the first 4 fixtures.  Vertonghen back should help but the loss of Ndombele and the lack of integration of Lo Celso who can also play as a CM has meant the old double pivot of Winks and Sissoko is still in place.

Lloris had the highest PPM last season behind Ederson and Alisson at £0.5m cheaper.  His shot stopping abilities and Spurs supposed defensive improvement should make him a good buy but it definitely hasn’t worked out as yet.

Man Utd

Man Utd despite only the 1 clean sheet have put up good stats.  You could argue that they should have got clean sheets statistically against Palace, Southampton and Wolves.  Conversley you’d argue that Palace and Wolves are 2 of the lower quality attacking sides and Southampton have 10 men for 15 minutes so their stats are positively distorted.

£4.0m and £4.5m defenders

You will have noticed the scarcity of £4.5m and £4.0m defenders in the schedule. It’s unrealistic to rank them over 6 games as you’ll either use them as bench players or as a rotation so analysing them as playing every game is pretty unrealistic.

£4.2m Lundstram is the only player left realistically with a long term future.  Rico looks out in the cold at Bournemouth and although Hanley should hold his place in the short term when Zimmerman is back from injury he looks likely to lose that spot.  Kelly of Palace I think will be lucky to survive a fully fit Sakho after Cahill has started well.

Here’s some suggested £4.5m ish mids for teams with playing options:

Leicester Soyuncu

Newcastle Lascelles

C Palace Ward

Southampton Bednarek

Brighton Dunk

West Ham Diop

Villa Mings

Bournemouth Smith

Norwich Aarons

Other posts

Gameweek 4 review

The early FFGeek team thoughts

Analysing 10 top FPL managers teams

the fixture ease schdeule

The bandwagons and sinking ships

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