Here’s our FPL forwards GW27 player rankings article. There’s a table of stats to help and a spreadsheet that can be filtered how you like to help you make a transfer choice
FPL forwards GW27 player rankings
This is the 2nd article in the player rankings series. There’s also defenders and GKs rankings plus midfielder player rankings
All the stats are from the free site understat
New Methodology
I’m trying a new method for the article which is amalgamates my form article with the player rankings article.
I’ve ordered the players by their underlying stats ranking when I convert their xG and xA over the last 10 gameweeks into FPL points for goals and assists. That figure is adjusted for the average minutes played over the last 10 gameweeks.
I’ve then provided a range of different stats to help you choose which player is the best for a transfer in.
Stats definitions
Form s/10/5. These are the form rankings for season, for the last 10 gameweeks and the last 5 game weeks. They are the average minutes adjusted rankings once the xG and xA are converted into FPL points. The lower the number the better the ranking.
Av minutes: The average minutes played in the last 10 gameweeks. Non appearances aren’t counted.
PPM – the fantasy premier league sites points per match.
Fixture ease: this is ranking for attacking players over the next 6 gameweeks from my fixture ease schedule article. The lower the number the better the fixtures
ATGS: the anytime goal scorer bookies odds for GW23 for £1 invested.
VFM: A Value for Money calculation by dividing the theoretical season goal and assist points by the players value. The higher the better.
The schedule ranked by forwards underlying stats over the last 10 gameweeks
Here is the link to the google spreadsheet. You can go to file>make a copy and then sort it how you like.
The schedule is not adjusted for Fixtures however the players fixture ease ranking is included along with a load of other stats. 360 minutes in last 10 required.
A few words about some unusual ranks
First of all Sergio Aguero would be miles ahead of everyone if he played anything like decent minutes. He’s 3rd on an average of 52 minutes over the last 10. That probably sums up Aguero at the minute though
Troy Deeney sticks out like a sore thumb. His xG90 over the last 10 is a very good 0.59 but 0.23 of that is down to penalties which is a huge unsustainable boost. He is also helped by his xA is 0.24 which is very good for a striker who also scores. He’s in a pretty false position and his season ranking of 10 is more realistic.
Jamie Vardy’s recent form problems are pretty obvious and that’s why he is so low over 10 and 5 gameweeks. Over the season he’s a pretty respectable 5th. It’s which Vardy is the real one.
Danny Ings is a big surprise so low given his recent form. His xG of 0.48 is pretty good but similar to say Chris Woods. However he’s scored 6 goals compared to his xG of just under 4 over that period. Only Aguero in the last 10 gameweeks has bettered his xG by more. Over the season he’s scored 15 goals compared to an xG of just over 10. No one has bettered their xG by more this season. Interestingly history wise he’s always under performed his xG. Make of that what you will. the low ranking is exacerbated by an xA of 0.03. The difficulty is gambling he’s going to slow down when his fixtures are so good.
Aubameyangs stats are also not that dissimilar to Chris Woods but Aubameyang has been unlucky or generous and has had no boost from that
Blanks GWks GW28 and GW31
You may have seen my recent article on the blanks and doubles
Blank GW28
The EFL cup final clashes with GW28 meaning there are the following postponements.
Sheffield United v Aston Villa
Man City v Arsenal
Where they go is yet to be determined.
Blank GW31
The FA Cup 6th round clashes with GW31 meaning there are postponements;
The only guaranteed games are
Burnley v Watford
Wolves v Bournemouth
Norwich v Everton will remain if Norwich lose to Spurs in the 5th round
Injury omissions from the schedule
Wesley – out for the season
Chris Woods and Ashley Barnes are both doubts for GW27 so I’ve omitted them
Abraham missed the Man Utd game and seems a sufficient doubt for the Spurs GW27 clash not to be in the schedule
Rashford seems like he may not be back until April
Kane is also a long term injury.
Gametime omissions from the schedule
Lacazette, Martinelli, Rodriguez, Solanke, Moussett, Maupay
The fixture ease schedule for attacking players
Here’s the schedule which ranks the teams by the ease of the defences they face over the next 4 gameweeks. I’ve shortened it due to the uncertainty of fixtures in GW31. You can then see the schedule they face if you’re thinking of transferring a player in.
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