Here’s our FPL forwards GW28 player rankings article. There’s a table of stats to help and a spreadsheet that can be filtered how you like to help you make a transfer choice
FPL forwards GW28 player rankings
This is the 3rd article in the player rankings series. There’s also defenders and GKs rankings plus midfielder player rankings
All the stats are from the free site understat
Methodology
I’ve ordered the players by their underlying stats ranking when I convert their xG and xA over the last 10 gameweeks into FPL points for goals and assists. That figure is adjusted for the average minutes played over the last 10 gameweeks.
I’ve then provided a range of different stats to help you choose which player is the best for a transfer in.
Stats definitions
Form s/10/5. These are the form rankings for season, for the last 10 gameweeks and the last 5 game weeks. They are the average minutes adjusted rankings once the xG and xA are converted into FPL points. The lower the number the better the ranking.
Av minutes: The average minutes played in the last 10 gameweeks. Non appearances aren’t counted.
PPM – the fantasy premier league sites points per match.
Fixture ease: this is ranking for attacking players over the next 6 gameweeks from my fixture ease schedule article. The lower the number the better the fixtures
ATGS: the anytime goal scorer bookies odds for GW28 for £1 invested.
VFM: A Value for Money calculation by dividing the theoretical season goal and assist points by the players value. The higher the better.
The schedule ranked by forwards underlying stats over the last 10 gameweeks
Here is the link to the google spreadsheet. You can go to file>make a copy and then sort it how you like.
This is an objective schedule which converst underlying sstats into FPL points. It is not adjusted for Fixtures however the players fixture ease ranking is included along with a load of other stats. 360 minutes in last 10 required.
A few words about some unusual ranks
First of all Sergio Aguero would be miles ahead of everyone if he played anything like decent minutes. His average of 59 minutes over the last 10 is his downfall. Over the season he is first.
Calvert Lewin is killing it with a season xG of 0.61. Only Aguero and Jesus have a better non penalty xG90 for the season
Troy Deeney is unrealistically high. He’s in a pretty false position due to a big penalty bounce and his season ranking of 10 is more realistic.
Jamie Vardy’s has just been bad over the last 10 and worse over the last 5. His season ranking of 6 is what you’re holding on to.
Danny Ings’s low place is easy to explain. Basically only Aubameyang has out performed their xG more. That goes against his history which is a concern. Is he better due to being injury free or luckier? His xG90 is still at a good level and comparable to Jimenez although Jimenez has vastle superior xA.
Aubameyangs stats are also less than you’d want for the price. He is the biggest overperformer of xG. Like Ings though he has no history of doing this. However he hasn’t really got the penalty boost you’d expect if you’re looking for positives.
Diogo Jota is another player hampered by his average minutes. His season xG90 is a respectable .49 for the season although he does little on the xA side.
Blanks GWks GW28 and GW31
You may have seen my recent article on the blanks and doubles
Blank GW28
The EFL cup final clashes with GW28 meaning there are the following postponements.
Sheffield United v Aston Villa
Man City v Arsenal
Where they go is yet to be determined.
Blank GW31
The FA Cup 6th round clashes with GW31 meaning there are postponements;
The only guaranteed games are
Burnley v Watford
Wolves v Bournemouth
Norwich v Everton will remain if Norwich lose to Spurs in the 5th round
Injury omissions from the schedule
Wesley – out for the season
Chris Woods and Ashley Barnes are both doubts for GW28 so I’ve omitted them
Rashford seems like he may not be back until April
Kane is also a long term injury.
Gametime omissions from the schedule
Lacazette, Martinelli, Rodriguez, Solanke, Moussett, Haller, Jesus
Note: I’ve assumed Abraham will get his place back for GW28.
The fixture ease schedule for attacking players
Here’s the schedule which ranks the teams by the ease of the defences they face over the next 3 gameweeks. I’ve shortened it due to the uncertainty of fixtures in GW31. You can then see the schedule they face if you’re thinking of transferring a player in.
More content
Geek note: If you join our Patreon site you will get access to an FPL contributor tracker team which combines the contributors individual teams each week to show their favourite players, transfers and captains. It will always be completed on a Friday/Saturday in a normal gameweek. There will also be an accompanying spreadsheet so you can drill down further. Currently 1,593 points 41k overall rank
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Weekly podcasts with the Geek and the other contributors
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Other Posts
Bandwagons and sinking ships for GW28
Early thoughts on the FFGeek team
Analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers
The FFGeek captain poll for GW28
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