FPL forwards GW4 player rankings – transfer options for your FPL team


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Here’s our FPL forwards GW4 player rankings article. There’s a table of stats to help and a spreadsheet that can be filtered how you like.

FPL forwards GW4 player rankings – transfer options for your FPL team




Methodology

Until there is a decent amount of data for the 19/20 season my rankings will be primarily based on historic performance.

I’ve picked a selection of forwards who I think will start GW4 although where there is doubt it is mentioned in the commentary below.

I’ve then looked at their expected goals and assists data in 18/19 so far as well as how it relates to their historical numbers. After that I’ve then adjusted it for their ability to over/underperform, their bonus potential, their average minutes played and clean sheet points.

Stats definitions

FFG Proj PPG: The PPG going forward using the above methodology adjusted for minutes played as above. This figure is not fixture adjusted

FPL PPM 18/19: The points per match from the fantasy premier league website for 18/19

Consistency 18/19: the % of starts where the player has scored a goal or assist. Only appearance of 45 mins or more count

Projected minutes: The average minutes played using a base of what they did in the last 10 gameweeks of 18/19. However in some cases where I didn’t think that was representative going forward I’ve subjectively adjusted them.

Fixture ease: this is the fixture adjustment from my attacking players fixture ease schedule article.

VFM: That’s the points for 6 games divided by the price to give a value for money estimate.

PPM 19/20: self explanatory.

ATGS GW4: the anytime goal scorer bookies odds for GW4 for £1 invested.

The schedule ranked by projected points

Here is the link to the google spreadsheet. You can go to file>make a copy and then sort it how you like.

However, the schedule is ranked by my projected points over 6 gameweeks. That’s my projected points per game adjusted for fixtures over 6 weeks




 FPL forwards GW4 player rankings

Template players

You may or may not know that I define the template players by   7 of the 10 top FPL managers I follow having a certain player in their team.  I will generally have that player in my team irrespective of my feelings about him as a way of negating the downward rank risk that occurs if you don’t own him.  I talk about this more in my early FFGeek team article.

That classification doesn’t affect the players ranking in this article, which is done purely by numbers.  However I will point them out in player rankings articles and you can take that for what it is.

Pukki is the only player in the category at the moment among forwards

Pukki

Speaking of which.  Btw, before I get a barrage of people giving me stick over Pukki’s rank and why is King higher etc etc.  Let me say that it’s impossible to model Pukki’s future performance on 3 games in the PL.  I’ve looked at how other players who finished with high goal performances in the Championship and how they did the following season and used that as a base.  It’s hardly ideal but it is what it is.

So if you’re deciding to get Pukki it’s from watching his performances or because he’s become template and you’re de risking it.

Barnes

Barnes last season was an outlier on previous and so analysis calms that down somewhat.

Abraham

Similar problems to Pukki although Abraham has played for Swansea before.  However I used similar methodology to how I assessed Pukki.  Abraham potentially looks like a Giroud sub magnet so his projected minutes are quite low and there’s a couple of negative fixtures after GW4.  Both of which lowers his projections

A few players not there

Lacazette and Murray I wasn’t sure about gametime.

If you’re looking for cheapies

£5.0m Ayew has started 2 of the 3 games although only averaged 69 minutes.

£5.5m McGoldrick has started 2 of the last 3 but only averaged 69 minutes per match.

£4.5m Greenwood has only come off the subs bench but if Martial is injured could get his chance

£4.5m Wickham has barely played any minutes but when Ayew and Benteke are your competition you can never rule him out

A fixture ease schedule for attacking players

Here’s a graphic where the teams are ranked by the ease of the defences they face over the next 6 gameweeks.

fantasy premier league best fixtures GW4

Other posts

The FFGeek captain poll

The FFGeek contributors show their teams for GW4 part 1

GW3 review from an underlying stats perspective

Analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers

The transfer in and out polls

Early thoughts on the FFGeek team

GW4 fixture ease article

See our GW4 bandwagons and sinking ships article

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You also get:

Joe’s interactive transfer planner and points projection tool

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