FPL forwards player rankings  – our first 19/20 ranking


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Here’s our first FPL forwards player rankings article for the 2019 – 2020 season. There’s a table of stats to help and a spreadsheet you can use to make your own rankings.

FPL forwards player rankings  – our first 19/20 ranking





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You can also see our goalkeeper player rankingsdefender player rankings and midfield player rankings for 19/20.  These will be updated again before the start of the season

Methodology

I’ve picked a selection of forwards for the season coming

I’ve then looked at their expected goals and assists data in 18/19 so far as well as how it relates to their historical numbers. After that I’ve then adjusted it for their ability to over/underperform, their bonus potential, and their average minutes played.

Stats definitions

PP90 mins adjusted: I’ve taken their Points per 90 and adjusted them for average minutes played in the last 10 games.  However in some cases where I didn’t think that was representative going forward I’ve subjectively adjusted them.

FFG Proj PPG: The PPG going forward using the above methodology adjusted for minutes played as above

FPL PPM: The points per match from the fantasy premier league website

Consistency: the % of starts where the player has scored a goal or assist. Only appearance of 45 mins or more count

Average mins last 10: The average minutes played when starting in the last 10 gameweeks of 18/19. However in some cases where I didn’t think that was representative going forward I’ve subjectively adjusted them.

Fixture ease:  this is the fixture adjustment from my attacking players fixture ease schedule article.  This will be adjusted  up to the GW1 to take into account transfers.

The schedule

Here is the link to the google spreadsheet.  You can go to file>make a copy and then sort it how you like.  Yaniv for example swears, as you’ll know if you’re in the FFG Slack channel,  by the FPL site PPG and I guess when you’ve finished in the top 10k the last 2 seasons you’ve got a fairly good defence of that metric.

However, the schedule is ranked by my projected points over 6 gameweeks.  That’s my projected points per game adjusted for fixtures over 6 weeks.



fpl forwards player rankings

A few notes

Sp firstly players we need to keep an eye on in relation to returning from international tournaments are:

Aguero, Firmino and Jimenez.  Jimenez appeared after 58 mins in the Europa League qualifier

Penalty takers are Aguero, Kane, Vardy, King, Ings and Deeney.  There are others such as Aubameyang, Lacazette, Jimenez, Barnes, Wood and Murray where there’s some question of a job share or uncertainty about whether they are the definitive designated penalty taker.

Modelling the new players is obviously difficult.

Haller has good all round underlying stats but I cut them down in the ratio of goals scored last season between Frankfurt and West Ham.  I didn’t make a negative adjustment for the premier league per se and modelled his bonus potential on someone similar.  He has come out very well but obviously there’s alot of guess work there.  Interestingly his consistency return rate was excellent.  He returned a goal or assist in 16 of 24 games which is an incredible 67%.

Abraham was even more of a struggle.  He actually performed well for a very goal shy Swansea side but if I extrapolated his stats from them to Chelsea’s goals last season he would be in Aubameyang and Aguero country which seems a bit of a stretch.  In the end I used the uplift that Llorente took to Spurs from Swansea which was about as good as I could get but it’s hardly a flawless assumption.  You can’t help but feel that with Giroud and Batshuayi there Abraham will be a sub magnet which is why I’ve put his average minutes so low.  If you want to ignore stats you would say £7.0m is very cheap if he becomes the starting striker which obviously has yet to be determined.

I did something similar to Haller with Joelinton and with Moraes and Pukki it was even less scientific.

You’ll probably chuckle when you see that it’s that old sick note Danny Ings who has the best VFM over the first 6.  Lets get this straight his season long underlying stats on a per 90 basis are exceptionally good.  His xG90 last season was 0.53.  Kanes was only 0.60 last season. Now the obvious fly in the ointment is that the chances of Ings completing 90 minutes are pretty poor whereas if Kane starts he tells Poch he’s not coming off for anyone.

Hope you found it useful

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2 thoughts on “FPL forwards player rankings  – our first 19/20 ranking”

  1. Geek, Jota and Deulofeu are 6.5 not 7.0, intresting about Vardy maybe worth the 1.0 extra for Wilson to downgrade somewhere else, need to think about it

  2. Vardy under Brendan is extremely enticing. Added to the fact that he is playing infront of Tielemans and Maddison, i think he will be well worth the 9mil this year

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