Here’s our FPL Forwards Tips article where we rank the top 24 forwards based on last seasons underlying stats and fixtures. There’s stats and commentary plus player suggestions which will help you with you draft FPL teams now
FPL Forwards Tips – Rankings For Last Season To Help Your FPL Drafts
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Introduction
This article consists of a schedule ranking the 24 top forwards from last season based on their underlying stats over the whole season. xG90 and xA90 are converted to FPL attacking points adjusted by their average minutes played.
You can also see their April and May (approx 8 or 9 games) ranking to see how they finished their season
There’s also their FPL points per match as well as their value for money rating. The higher the better. Above 10 is the gold standard
The rankings are purely mathematical with no subjectivity and NOT adjusted for upcoming fixtures.
Players who are expected to take penalties have a * next to their name
There are no promoted teams as yet. This will be a separate article
Stats from the excellent free site understat
The Schedule
Player Suggestions
As a general rule I would like a forward to have an xG90 of 0.50 and an xA of around 0.14 an average of 75 minutes plus played per game. Anyone with a PPM of less than 4 would make me want to know that’s down to a load of sub appearances which in itself would have to be a thing of the past.
Although the shooting and creating chances volumes aren’t in this above 3 per 90 for shooting is ideal under 2.5 a little worrying and creating chances volume close to 1 per game. Value for money ratio should be above 9 unless the average minutes has distorted it. A fixture ranking 7 or above is what I would also hope for. I’m not so worried about their April May ranking but would have liked them not to have fallen apart. Penalties are a preferred but not essential
Given that here’s my player suggestions
Antonio
24 starts plus 2 as sub for 10 goals and 5 assists at a goal or assist every 131 minutes.
Anyone who comes to the site will know how much I like Antonio. He ticks a lot of the above boxes for me as long as he’s a CF. Great fixtures. His problem is that he’s not the best finisher and he’s great as a stats Geek but you have to put the ball in the net and he hasn’t shown he’s the best at that. The last 2 seasons especially haven’t been great. My faith in him is that he can turn this around.
Wilson
23 starts plus 3 as sub for 12 goals and 6 assists at a goal or assist every 112 minutes.
I’ve always been a bit of a Callum Wilson sceptic but last season was impressive given Newcastles lack of desire to attack. That desire improved in the latter part of the season and should that go on I can see him doing even better. Like Antonio hasn’t got a great history of clinical finishing and his volumes you won’t be surprised to hear could be better. Reasonably ok fixtures to start with and should have pens.
Calvert Lewin
32 starts plus 1 as sub for 16 goals and 6 assists at a goal or assist every 130 minutes.
Calvert-Lewin’s biggest attraction is the fixtures. His underlying stats are good although he doesn’t add much in the way of creativity to his game and I think he was fortunate to come up with 6 assists. Has also had some trouble finishing chances. However the fixtures and the PPM speak for themselves plus he has been a regular 90 minute player. With Benitez looking like he could very well be the manager that adds an unknown into the equation.
Iheanacho
16 starts plus 9 as sub for 12 goals and 2 assists at a goal or assist every 103 minutes.
Ignore the ranking which is distorted negatively due to his average minutes after being a sub early season. Ignore the PPM for the same reason.
I’m struggling to fault Iheanacho in any way. Rodgers will have a problem with formation with Barnes back but it’s hard to believe Iheanacho isn’t nailed after his late season performances. The first 3 fixtures are ok before they face Man City.
If you were combing for negatives you would say that he had a lethal finishing year which is not particularly prevalent in his history.
Watkins
37 starts plus 0 as sub for 14 goals and 9 assists at a goal or assist every 144 minutes.
There are 3 major pluses for Ollie Watkins. Fixtures, The fact he generally plays 90 minutes every game and the added dimension of his creativity. I think his xG90 could be better and he hasn’t proved particularly lethal in front of goal either but he isn’t a disaster by any stretch.
A big issue is what happens with Jack Grealish who Man City are trying to buy. There seems to be stories suggesting he is now going to sign a new contract at Villa. The fact that Watkins scored 3 goals in 14 games without Grealish starting says it all. Also the fact that Dean Smith laughingly talks about Traore as a creator also shows how bereft Watkins would be without him as Smith will also take Villa back to a defensive first outfit.
A word on Harry Kane
35 starts plus 0 as sub for 23 goals and 14 assists at a goal or assist every 83 minutes.
The numbers are obscene. The underlying stats back them up and for me Harry Kane has everything except the fixtures.
Before you think of Kane I think you need to decide on your captain strategy. It seems hard to me to fit in 3 premiums so it’s possible you are mulling over 2 from Fernandes, Salah and Kane. If Kane were to move to Man City and there are reports that a fresh bid is coming then things look very different in that choice.
The Attacking player fixture difficulty schedule
Just to help you if you want to see which fixtures are being played
Other posts
Attacking players fixture difficulty Schedule
Defensive players fixture difficulty schedule
Kev and Rob’s first draft teams
Andrew and Costas’ first draft teams
The FFGeek Tracker team (8k OR last season)
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