Here’s FFGeek Contributor Rob Reid with his FPL GW9 review. He looks at each game with a mixture of stats and eye test picking out the key player performances as well as analysing the popular FPL players involved. Rob has finished in the top 22k overall rank 4 times in the last 7 competitive seasons.
FPL GW9 Review – Rob Reid Analyses Gameweek 9
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Introduction
Rob Reid reviews each game picking out the key player performances as well as analysing the popular FPL players involved.
You can follow Rob on twitter here. You can also see his live transfers and final team lineups here
I watched 3 live games this week: the North London Derby, Leeds vs Aston Villa and Leicester vs Forest. I watched the highlights of the other and as usual have had a look at the stats. Here’s my thoughts:
Arsenal vs Spurs
This was ultimately a dominant performance by The Gunners, though xG was actually fairly even until Emerson’s Royal sending off. To be fair though, Arsenal had been on top in the first half despite the scores being level and a 1.23 of Spurs’ 1.50 xG came as a result of Kane’s penalty and Richarlison’s 12th minute chance. Arsenal had 22 shots in their 2.48 xG, 9 of these were on target and 11 were in the box – 3-1 flattered Spurs in the end. Jesus was the standout for the home side – 4 shots and 1 key pass with an xG of 1.47 though to be fair his goal was pretty close to 1 xG alone!
Xhaka was amazingly next best for stats – 0.42 xG, 3 shots and 1 key pass; he certainly took his goal well. A creative game too from Martinelli, though his booking took a little bit of the shine off. Defensively, they’ll have been disappointed to concede and they’re still posting great numbers. I wouldn’t be worried about holding for Liverpool at home this week – especially with the form The Reds are in, but remember you’ll have to offload a player or two if you have multiple Arsenal assets for the blank in GW12.
Spurs’ display was somewhat under-par and was in contrast to their flat-track bully performance against Leicester in GW8. Kane and Richarlison posted decent xG numbers mainly by virtue of their big chance each, but it was disappointing from everyone else. They were comprehensively outplayed in midfield, Royal’s red card was brainless and it was a howler from Lloris that allowed Jesus to net Arsenal’s second. It was a flat game from Son and Spurs badly missed Kulusevski’s creativity and movement off the ball. Brighton away in GW10 looks a tricky test.
Leeds vs Villa
I definitely picked the wrong Sunday game to watch, though I had little choice as I was at a party while the Manchester derby was on! This was a bad-tempered scrappy affair with obvious hostility between the 2 squads that has built up over a succession of incidents in games in the last 12 months. Leeds paid the price for Sinisterra’s silly two yellow cards and in the end did well to dig in and hold on for a draw and clean sheet. The big winners from this were Meslier owners (like our Contributor Costas) as he racked up an 11-point haul. Otherwise, it was a disappointing 0.30 xG performance from the Yorkshire side in a game where they really lacked fluency.
Villa have toughened up considerably at the back of late with Gerrard focusing on making them a hard side to beat. They actually racked up 1.90 xG in this one too and really should have won the game with Coutinho and Watkins missing their best chances. Bailey was also a notable starter but was booked and subbed midway through the second half. Injuries continue to bite in the Villa defence – Augustinsson made his full debut but came off injured before half-time leaving them looking very short in the full-back area. Both sides are away next – Leeds to Palace and Villa to Forest. Villa assets wouldn’t be priority transfers in or out for now, Leeds face Arsenal in GW11 but face Leicester in GW12 so a bit of a mixed bag.
Leicester vs Forest
An entertaining Monday night game where the xG battle was at odds with the score-line!. The xG score of 1.25 vs 1.22 reflects the fact that 3 out for the four goals were scored from outside the box, but in reality it was a dominant win from Leicester. Forest did miss a big chance at 0-0 with Awoniyi hitting the post when one-on-one with Danny Ward but Leicester had squandered two big chances before this with Vardy and Dewsbury-Hall the culprits. Indeed, this should have been 2 early assists for star of the show James Maddison but owners certainly won’t be complaining about his 18-point haul that came from 3 shots and 4 key passes. As a non-owner it was a painful and yet entertaining watch – he’s in great form and is top of my buy list for GW10. There was a strong showing from Barnes too – a fine finish for his goal, 4 shots and 3 key passes for him. Vardy was the other standout – he had the top xG of 0.42 and also had 4 shots.
Defensively, The Foxes registered their first clean sheet of the season though they still looked shaky on set pieces and soft-centred in open play. This did however lead to an unlikely 8-pointer from Danny Ward – he produced 2 good saves in the second half including getting his positioning right to deny Gibbs-White with a header late on. Forest’s profligacy looks a concern going forward, but even more of a worry was their defence which was to be quite frank an absolute mess. Cooper changed the system to 4 at the back but offered little protection to the centre-halves in the CDM area. It’s clear that he doesn’t look sure how to make the best use of the massive squad he has at his disposal and they look a good team to target in terms of selecting players who play against them moving forwards. Villa at home next Monday looks a very important game for Cooper in terms of keeping his job. Leicester visit Bournemouth in GW10 – how will their fluent attack fair against a Cherries side who have tightened up of late?
Bournemouth vs Brentford
So speaking of The Cherries…they will be pleased with a point from a stuffy affair against Brentford. The xG battle was close (0.76 vs 1.05) but the game was probably more notable for a couple of incidents where Bournemouth were denied penalties. When VAR called the referee to check in the first half, Solanke owners must have been hopeful but alas he went against the grain and stuck with his original call. It was another low-key stats performance from the Bournemouth striker – 0.10 xG, 1 shot and 2 key passes. Hardly pulling up trees, but owners will probably fancy his chances against that jittery Leicester defence this week. To be fair, at his price if he returns once every 3 gameweeks, that’s ok. Lerma was actually Bournemouth’s standout attacker stats-wise with 3 shots, 1 big chance and xG of 0.46. Defensively, they certainly look more solid and anyone who gambled in Neto as a £4.5m keeper will have been pleased with his 8 points. Fixtures continue to be really good for The Cherries over the next few weeks.
A disappointing game for Brentford – a match they would have expected to win. Frustrating too for Toney owners like me as he got himself booked to rub salt into the wounds of his blank. His stats were decent though – an xG of 0.83 and 6 shots, 5 of which were in the box and 1 big chance. There was more rotation in midfield for The Bees meaning their low-priced midfield options continue to be a bit of a lottery. Their fixtures are a bit mixed – Newcastle away next might suit them but Brighton and Chelsea after that which will both be tricky.
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea
Chelsea pinched this one at the end and can probably count themselves a little lucky to get all 3 points. Thiago Silva was fortunate not to be sent off just before half-time and the game could have been very different had they only had 10 men for the second period. xG finished 0.71 vs 1.26 with Sterling picking up 0.70 of Chelsea’s total, hitting the post with an 0.56 xG chance in his blank. Aubameyang took his goal well, but was otherwise fairly quiet (he’s traditionally a low xG player who outperforms his stats) and Gallagher’s winner against his former team was a peach of a shot with an xG of 0.02. The Jury is still out on Chelsea for me, and holding Reece James is becoming an increasingly frustrating experience. The full-backs do still seem to be staying pretty advanced under Potter though which is good news.
Palace made few chances but matched the visitors for shots and target and Edouard took his goal well. It was a quiet game for Zaha, but he is a popular option in midfield going forward as The Eagles move to the top of people’s fixture ease tickers. I’m still not convinced on their defence, though Guaita would be a tempting option should I need a keeper replacement. The only issue is that Vieira does like to rotate his keepers sometimes and Johnstone is a pretty good reserve waiting in the wings.
Fulham vs Newcastle
A day to forget for Fulham fans and owners of Fulham FPL assets alike. The Cottagers were blown away here, not helped by Chalobah’s reckless 7th minute red card with Mitrovic’s nil pois 36 minute injury withdrawal a real downer for owners. From an FPL persepctive, I don’t think we can read too much into this game other than that Fulham defenders are still a no-no and that we’ll all eagerly await injury updates on the big Serb this week.
Newcastle played very well in this one and they ruthlessly put Fulham away once they had the numerical advantage, racking up an xG of 4.67, the best of the gameweek. Almiron’s 2 goals will have made managers who trusted the budget asset very pleased and he was cruelly but correctly denied a hat-trick by an offside flag. Wilson looked good on his comeback and is one to add to that set of good forward options from £6.5-8m – he had 3 shots and an impressive xG of 1.72. Trippier owners got lucky with a timely substitution for his clean sheet and bonus point, with The Magpies taking the foot of the gas at the end and frustrating Pope owners as Fulham busted his clean sheet. Newcastle host Brentford next while Fulham have a London derby versus West Ham – I’d hold players of both teams and would consider buying Wilson.
Liverpool vs Brighton
A good fun entertaining game with both sides willing to attack, but leaving pretty big holes at the back. Liverpool started poorly again, falling behind early and indeed The Seagulls could have been 4-0 up, creating 4 big chances inside the first 16 minutes. Liverpool’s system just isn’t working at the moment. Players are being far too gung-ho in attack and teams are exploiting weaknesses in the system and also poor individual technique with Alexander Arnold in particular exhibiting worrying issues with basic defensive skills such as scanning and body positioning. Trossard took his goals really well and deservedly bagged a hat-trick as he equalised with 8 minutes to go. He certainly reaped the rewards of playing more as a second striker as opposed to the wing-back role he featured in under Potter. Gross had a quieter game in the 10 role, but there’s really positive signs for the start of the De Zerbi era. I wouldn’t be too worried defensively – I’ve said before that I consider Man City and Liverpool fixtures to be outliers for opposition teams. I’d be holding their assets for the moment.
As for Pool, they were outmatched on the xG front 2.15 vs 2.37, but this probably reflects their defensive frailty more. Brighton only had 6 shots, but they were all on target and all would be considered big chances. The Reds registered 15 shots, 7 on target and 4 big chances – Firmino was their standout on xG with 1.35 with Salah not too far behind for attacking stats with an xGI of 0.98. Despite the returns not coming, I probably sound like a broken record in saying that the stats are still there. 5 shots and 1 key pass in this one, but just a paltry assist for his troubles. I’d hold him if I owned him, but I wouldn’t be buying with Arsenal and City up next. There’s also now serious question marks as to whether you should firstly hold Alexander-Arnold but even as to whether it’s worth buying him further down the line.
Southampton vs Everton
A close game this one: 1.96 vs 2.04 on xG in a good win for the away side. Everton created and squandered 3 big chances and scored from 2 lower xG attempts, McNeil’s goal being notable for being his first in 54 Premier League games. Gray and Maupay also posted good stats despite both blanking though it’s fair to say there are better and more reliable assets at their price points, while Gordon was frustratingly benched. This also wasn’t The Toffees best game defensively and with tricky games versus Man United and Spurs up next, this probably isn’t the best time to buy.
Southampton will be disappointed that 21 shots only yielded 1 goal and their xGI was spread around the team. Aribo scored his second goal of the season assisted by Adams but there continues to not really be a standout FPL option for The Saints. Fixtures aren’t great either with City, West Ham and Arsenal in 3 of their next 4 games.
West Ham vs Wolves
A low xG game in what ultimately proved to be Bruno Lage’s last game in charge of a disappointing spell as manager. West Ham won the xG battle 1.04 vs 0.58 and it was a good day for Bowen owners as he finally found some form, registering a goal and a bit of a jammy assist. A clean sheet for The Hammers is also encouraging though budget asset Emerson missed out on a start. Fulham and Southampton are up next, though there are European commitments in between and these have been proved draining for their squad this year.
Wolves look another team to be targeted at the moment – they offer little attacking threat so are good for opposing teams getting clean sheets and defensively are struggling too. There’s no news yet as to who Lage’s replacement will be – they face Chelsea in GW10 so it could be a good week for owners of Reece James and co. Like Southampton above, there’s no Wolves assets that appeal at the moment.
Man City vs Man United
I’ve saved the best for last arguably, a super-fun 9 goal match with FPL returns a plenty. It seems a bit mad to say that Man City ‘only’ managed an xG of 3.01! Foden’s hat-trick accounted for 1.29 of this and Haaland’s hat-trick ‘only’ racked up 1.02, though kudos does go to his xA of 1.12. De Bruyne put in a good performance too and will have been disappointed not to add a goal to his 2 assists. Any combination of these 3 attacking assets looks the way to go for the next 3 weeks at least and Southampton next looks to have potential for another bumper haul and Haaland has further cemented his current perma-Captain status. At present City’s blank in GW12 looks like the only week where it would be considered sensible to gamble against him! Defensively, their 3 goals conceded was disappointing, though they did rather luxuriously leave Dias and Laporte on the bench possibly with the UCL in mind this week so I’m sure they’ll toughen up in the weeks to come.
United’s only real bright-spot was the cameo off the bench from Martial, scoring twice with an xG of 1.44 in just 29 minutes (though granted there is one penalty in that.) They were ripped apart defensively as Haaland looked to strike fear into their backline from the off. Varane going off injured will be a concern for them moving forwards. They’ve got 2 ok fixtures next in Everton and Newcastle but then face Spurs and Chelsea so I wouldn’t be investing in any of their players at the moment.
Other GW10 Posts
Analysing the teams of 15 top FPL managers
The GW10 Bandwagons and Sinking Ships
Early thoughts on the FFGeek Team
3 FFGeek Contributors Teams Part 3
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