What FPL Opportunities are there from Marcus Rashford’s 3 month injury

Fantasy Premier League

Marcus Rashford looks like he will be out for 2-3 months with shoulder surgery. So while no one likes to see a player injured it often can open up FPL opportunities for other players who are often cheaper. We explore this for Man Utd. There’s also a YouTube video if you’d prefer to listen as opposed to read

 

What FPL Opportunities Are There From Marcus Rashford’s 3 Month Injury

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Marcus Rashford’s injury

Marcus Rashford is set to have shoulder surgery and be out until 0ctober. Reports I have seen say anything between 2-3 months. United’s statement said.

“Following consultation between Marcus, the manager, club medical staff and specialists, Marcus will undergo surgery imminently to resolve his shoulder injury.

How will United line up in his absence?

Rashford would have lined up as the LAM in the 3 of 4-2-3-1. £12.0m mid Fernandes would have been in the middle and £9.5m mid Sancho on the right. £8.5m fwd Cavani will probably be the Centre Forward in rotation with £7.5m mid Greenwood. £8.0m fwd Martial could also come into contention for either the LAM or the CF spot but at the moment is recovering from injury and training separately.

The complication is that Greenwood in the last 2 seasons hasn’t played as a left sided forward or attacking midfielder. However Sancho last season played equally on the left and right and in fact had his most productive spell towards the end of the season with Dortmund as a left winger

Therefore the solution appears to be that Greenwood moves to the right and Sancho to the left of the 3. It seems a tad ridiculous having paid all that money for Sancho to solve that right sided problem that he immediately moves to the left but unless Martial is fit and preferred on the left to avoid Sancho moving then it seems the logical step. Interestingly there are links with Martial to other clubs which I guess you could interpret him as behind Greenwood in the pecking order

What about late International returns?

The problem with all this in the short term is the post International tournament returns. None of the attacking players mentioned apart from Greenwood have played a minute of preseason. Martial for fitness and the others for International tournament returns. While I imagine Cavani and Fernandes will be starters as they have had a longer rest.

Sancho has to be a serious starting risk given he was in the England squad for the final of the Euros. That should cement Greenwood’s place for GW1 possibly on the right where he has played most of his time. Ultimately Greenwood and or Martial will probably share Centre forward rotation with Cavani once the Champions League kicks in between GW4-5.

Here’s how I think Man Utd could lineup

I’m ignoring late arrivals back in this lineup

FPL Opportunities

So how good is Greenwood?

Last season Greenwood made 21 starts plus 10 as sub for 7 goals and 2 assists at a pretty ordinary goal or assist every 201 minutes. However he did have a strong finish to the season getting 6 goals and 1 assist in his last 6 starts plus 2 as sub. 5 of those games was as a RAM, 3 as a CF.

Over those games he did massively over perform his underlying stats scoring 6 goals vs 3.65 xG. That made up for the rest of the season when he was under performing.

His low average minutes over the season of 58 distorted his position in my midfield rankings article and he was 29th overall. His April and May form though saw him ranked 9th overall and that ignores over performance. He performed more like a £9.5m midfielder over those months.

What I really like about him is shooting volumes. His overall shooting volume was 3.3 times per 90. The gold standard for a midfielder is Salah and he was not much further ahead at 3.68 per 90. Over that 8 game spell Greenwood was shooting at 4.6 times per 90 which would even make Salah and Kane blush. Even Aguero in his heyday would have struggled with that volume. It is just as well with Greenwood as he doesn’t contribute much on the creative side not even making 1 key pass per 90. That seems to be exacerbated when he is in that shooting mode as over that 8 game spell he only made 2 key passes.

Interestingly when you compare his starting stats as a midfielder instead vs a forward he comes out resoundingly better as a midfielder. Here’s the Understat comparison with his midfield stats in green

FPL Opportunities

How much certainty over Greenwood can we get before GW1?

Not much really. The Preston friendly on the 31st has been cancelled because of the Covid outbreak affecting a small number of the first team Man Utd squad

That leaves 1 friendly on August 7 vs Everton which may not even see Sancho play or Martial if he’s not match fit and if either don’t then we won’t see a possible GW1 formation.

It’s possible though that Sancho won’t be ready for GW1 and Martial not match fit which is pretty much a green light for GW1 for Greenwood and after that the situation will become clearer.

That’s as good as it gets I imagine

How do you feel about a double up with Fernandes?

If you are sold on Fernandes as a premium captain option for your team then you need to ask an additional question if you want to add another £7.5m in Greenwood to the £12.0m of Greenwood already invested in your squad.

Manchester United were certainly one of the better attacking sides after all only Man City scored more goals. However they were 4th in XG and 4th in shots per game (0.1 shots ahead of Villa) and only 6th in non penalty xG. Incredibly they were only 5th in possession % behind Leeds. They also failed to score in 8 games last season which was 5th ranked.

True they have added Sancho to the team which definitely ups their attacking ability and Varane’s pace and passing will help them get further up the pitch and allow more switches of play but still its a big investment in an attacking team which still has some work to do to be fully functioning.

Luckily the fixtures are good. I have them 6th in my fixture ease schedule

FPL Opportunities

Summary

Rashford is out for 2-3 months and the logical replacements are either £7.5m Mid Greenwood or £8.0m Martial. Given Martial is recovering from an injury and been linked with other clubs Greenwood seems a more likely replacement. That would possibly mean Sancho moving to the left of the Attacking Midfield 3 and Greenwood playing on his favoured right. GW1 however may not see Sancho match fit which should cement Greenwoods place for that fixture at least whatever happens re Martial.

Greenwood finished the season strongly with excellent underlying stats and returns and actually performed better as a midfielder. For £7.5m he is great value.

Lastly if you are planning on having £12.0m Fernandes in your team you need to consider whether you want close to £20m invested in a team that was probably 4th best in attack and failed to score 8 times last season. On the positive side the fixtures are good.

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