FPL team selection – “one mans pain is another mans gain” Injuries create opportunities

Fantasy Premier League

While no one would ever wish a player to be injured it can have a positive effect on our FPL team selection, especially value wise.  Remember when Aguero was injured and Iheanacho was selected to provide the tap ins for Silva’s and De Bruynes assists at not far off half the price?  Thats what were looking for.  Here’s some examples for when the FPL site opens

FPL team selection – “one mans pain is another mans gain” Injuries create opportunities

The initial prices coming out of FPL show that were going to have to be very creative in saving cash for the likes of Sanchez and Kane.  Even Alli looks like he’ll be £10m.

One of the ways I looked at this in my EBook “preparing for FPL 2017/18” was to identify where injuries to players would create an opportunity for others to come in at a cheaper price.  I mention Iheanacho for example but would Josh King have played striker if Wilson hadn’t been injured?  Son HM played striker last season when Kane was injured.  That also shows that sometimes it doesn’t work as Vincent Janssen failed when called up to replace Kane.   For me this is one of the times to roll the dice.  Were going to look at 3 opportunities.

The first thing to say is at the moment it’s very early and pre-season has only just started so these are monitors to a large extent.  Preseason will help us determine whether the injuries are the length expected and who will take the players place.  Secondly we don’t have prices as yet so the saving is yet to be determined.  I will update the article though once the site is open.

I use the excellent site physioroom for injuries.  They give indicative return dates.  However they can be delayed through match fitness reasons and because managers are just plain untruthful when giving out information




Eden Hazard

 Ankle injury return date September 16 which should be GW5 although that could just mean a 10 minute sub appearance.

Hazard’s price could be anything this season given what we have seen to date. I suspect it could be around £11m.

So at the moment at least 4 games with another player.  Chelsea normally play 3-4-2-1 although it’s often called 3-4-3.  Hazard and Pedro would normally play behind Diego Costa.  Here’s my view at the moment.  Remember pre-season will help us greatly with Chelsea playing in the Community Shield.

Willian

If Hazard is injured then to me Willian is the favourite to step in and take his place in the 2 behind the striker.  Willian I expect would be around £7.5m.

Fabregas

 Price released at £7.0m.  2nd favourite to replace Hazard would be Fabregas but he normally played in the easier home games but in the central 2 of the midfield 4.  He did have alot of set piece responsibility.  Despite that his returns were phenomenal.  The issue is gametime especially if Bakayoko joins.  The last thing you want is a midfielder who only starts half the games and comes on for 10 minutes in the others.

Here’s his games from GW26 onwards:

fpl team selection

Pretty impressive when he started but he only started 8/13 games.  He also came on for a sub appearance in all the others.

Pedro 

Lets not forget Pedro in this.  This should lessen the rotation risk for him.  He also played in the 2 of 3-4-2-1.  The injury to Hazard will give him a secure selection.




Costa 

The last bit of this is penalties which is Hazard’s responsibility.  Last season only Costa took a penalty in the premier league apart from Hazard and he missed.  If he stays, and that’s a big if, will he get them?  Who else will?

Summary stats of the 3 mids

Here’s some summary stats plus Hazard thrown in

fpl team selection

You can see they all compare quite well.  Fabregas’ are incredible.  It’s just the gametime that’s the issue.

Chelsea’s fixtures

Here’s the first 6:

Chelsea v Burnley
Spurs v Chelsea
Chelsea v Everton
Leicester v Chelsea
Chelsea v Arsenal
Stoke v Chelsea

So the fly in the ointment really is the fixtures which apart from the opening 1 aren’t good at all.

In my GW1 fixture ease article where I assess the best first 3, 6 and 10 fixtures from an attacking point of view Chelsea had the 13th, 18th and 16th respectively.

FFGeek view

Pre-season will tell us alot but one of the 3 are an option depending on relative price.  I’m not wild about the fixtures though although Chelsea can score goals against anyone as they showed last season.

Danny Rose

MCL Knee ligament injury August 19 (GW2) return date

I’m a huge admirer of Pochettino and what he’s done for Spurs.  Some of the most enjoyable games I’ve watched have involved his team but the guy just hasn’t been truthful about Danny Rose.  Time and time again we heard that he would be back in a couple of games and I have no faith that anything will be different this season.

So while it’s a big risk gametime, depending on price, Ben Davies gives us a great opportunity to get into the Spurs defence at a potentially cheap price.

Ben Davies stats

Here’s Ben Davies stats after he came into the side for the last 15 games

fpl team selection

Pretty impressive.

Spurs fixtures

Here’s the first 6.

Newcastle v Spurs
Spurs v Chelsea
Spurs v Burnley
Everton v Spurs
Spurs v Swansea
West Ham v Spurs

Pretty mixed.

FFGeek view

It’s a monitor for me but I’m very tempted depending on price.  To do so you have to be sceptical about Danny Roses’ return.

I’ve rated them 10th best attacking fixtures over the first 3 games and 9th and 5th over the first 6th and 10th respectively

Seamus Coleman

Broken leg no return date

This should see a continuation of gametime for last seasons replacement Mason Holgate.  Even in a back 3 I can’t see Jonjoe Kenny getting in front of him.  It’s possible in a back 3 that someone like Tom Davies could play wing back I guess.  Pre-season again will tell.

However Everton’s fixtures are a bit of a car crash so it’s unlikely I’ll be going there unless he’s incredibly cheap:

Everton v Stoke
Man City v Everton
Chelsea v Everton
Everton v Spurs
Man Utd v Everton
Everton v Bournemouth

We’ll regularly review this as there are others such as Callum Wilson Bournemouth, Jamie Vardy, Kasper Schmeichel and Van Dijk all of which have no confirmed return date

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